NFL middle class contenders vs. pretenders, featuring Packers, Seahawks, Falcons, and more

Who from that range is a contender, and who might be a paper tiger?

Midway through the NFL season, we’re starting to see the truly elite teams separate themselves at the top of the league. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs fall in this category as leading candidates to reach the Super Bowl. We’re also seeing some truly horrid teams separate themselves at the bottom of the league. The Patriots, Jaguars and Saints fall into this category, teams whose seasons are pretty much dead in the water at this point.

However, what do we make of the teams in between them? The middle class of the NFL has never felt larger, with most of the league still hovering around .500. There are some incredibly fun and good teams, but all with some big flaws as well. So how do we separate those teams that are true contenders from teams who have benefitted from some luck this season? That’s the goal today, to parse through the middle class of the NFL and see who can really make a deep run in the postseason, and who might not have the horses this year.

Using FTN Fantasy’s Team DVOA ratings, we’ll separate the top five in Team DVOA and the bottom 12 in the same metric, hopefully getting teams 6-19 to discuss. In the process, we’re flipping the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers, because I think the Bills are among the NFL’s elite. So let’s hop in and see which teams are contenders and which are pretenders, starting with the Super Bowl runner ups from last season.

San Francisco 49ers: Contenders (hesitantly)

A part of me wants to believe that this 49ers’ season is done. Already with losses to the Rams, Cardinals and Vikings, they’ve put themselves behind the eight-ball when it comes to playoff contention, and still have games against Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Detroit coming up with the other division games. The 49er defense isn’t bad this year, but it’s just a bit off the standard we associate with this team. They’re 15th in Defensive EPA per play and 16th in Success Rate, making them almost perfectly average, a drop down from their elite ranks. Combine that with losing WR Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL and you get a team that’s been severely hit by the injury bug and the overall brain drain of being the best team in the conference for five or so years.

Yet, I find myself still believing in this team. RB Christian McCaffrey could be coming back after the bye week, as will WR Jauan Jennings. It remains to be seen how effective McCaffrey will be after missing a large portion of the season, but his ability to keep San Francisco out of man coverage situations and be the most explosive portion of the Niners’ offense is crucial with Aiyuk out for the season. I want to say this team won’t make it, but as long as Kyle Shanahan is coaching I think the Niners are contenders...maybe.

Houston Texans: Pretenders

The Texans are a weird team. A frustrating team, if you will.

Despite having all the makings of a team ready to jump into the waters of the elite this season, they just haven’t put together consistent stretches of play. A large part of this falls on the offense, who has a problem up front. They’re 20th in Adjusted Line Yards, dead last in the NFL in percentage of runs where the back is hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, and CJ Stroud has been sacked 21 times. All of these came to a head in a befuddling Thursday Night loss to the New York Jets where Stroud was sacked eight times and only completed 11 of his 30 passes. Defensively, I think they’re pretty good, but are susceptible to a lot of explosive plays downfield, having the third-highest DVOA allowed on deep passes in the entire league.

WR Nico Collins coming back should help the offense return to some form of good play, but I’m not sure if this team is ready yet to be a serious playoff contender.

Washington Commanders: Contenders

I still have my doubts about the sustainability of all of this, but make no mistake about it: the 7-2 Commanders are contenders in the NFC. Their offense, led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and star wideout Terry McLaurin, is putting up extremely efficient numbers, sitting pretty at first in offensive EPA per play and second in DVOA on that same side of the ball. They stay out of obvious passing situations, and even when they do, they get some hero plays from Daniels and McLaurin, who have displayed a mind-meld unlike anything I’ve seen from a rookie QB this early. Once they get RB Brian Robinson back, the run game becomes even more potent.

I have a lot of questions about the viability of a defense that is just okay, but if the offense can play like they have, they’ll get a shot in a weird NFC.

Green Bay Packers: Contenders

I still have faith in the Packers, despite a humbling 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday. A lot of that faith is reliant on a healthy Jordan Love, however. It was clear on Sunday that Love wasn’t 100% due to a groin injury suffered against Jacksonville, and his movement was compromised, leading to some really boneheaded plays.

Holding the Lions to only 24 points is a testament to both the weather affecting the game and the Packers’ defense, but the offense has to get more from their youth in these types of games. Love had a bad game overall, the receivers combined for six drops and penalties hurt their team. But again, I think I’ve seen more sustainable offense from the Packers than not, so I’ll keep them in the contender category.

Philadelphia Eagles: Contender (hesitantly)

Just like the Texans above them, the Eagles are an incredibly frustrating team. Despite beating the Jaguars 28-23, the offense sputtered for most of the game and were actively hamstrung by their head coach and his rollercoaster decision making in critical moments. That’s the most bewildering part about this team. Nick Sirianni feels incapable of making a sound decision, and it trickles down through the rest of the staff. For example: a rollout pass on 4th and 1 despite having Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the team. Or maybe kicking a 58 yard field goal instead of trying to ice the game by just going for it. Or how about all the failed 4th down conversions? These things all add up and it puts the head coach directly in front of the talent trying to win the game. If the Eagles make the playoffs and sputter out again, it’ll be because of the head coach.

However, Philly is a contender because of said talent. They have too many stars on offense and it feels like the defense is coming together at the right point in the season. Adding CB Cooper DeJean to the starting lineup has helped blend what Vic Fangio wants to do in the secondary, and they’re getting quality play from LBs Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Their inconsistent pass rush might be what gets them on the defensive side of the ball, but they’ve played well.

The Eagles are contenders, but until Nick Sirianni shows he’s capable of not cutting out his own teams’ legs from under them, they’re nothing more than that.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Contender (hesitantly)

Another hesitant contender enters the chat! The Steelers are 6-2 and in the midst of getting some really good football from QB Russell Wilson, so why are they hesitant contenders? The main hesitancy is how sustainable this level of play from Wilson is. Since entering the starting lineup he’s shown the ability to generate explosives downfield with his arm while keeping Pittsburgh’s offense on track, but I don’t know how consistent both he and the running game will be. In Wilson’s two games, they’ve played two of the worst run defenses in the NFL in the Jets and Giants, and have games against both the Ravens and Browns as well as the Chiefs coming up. If they can’t consistently generate anything on the ground, it puts more on the shoulders of Wilson, who might not be able to carry that load like he used to. The defense is still good, but the Steelers have always fielded a good defense. If Pittsburgh wants to go further than the divisional round, it’ll need to keep this level of play from Wilson.

Los Angeles Chargers: Contender

The Chargers are a contender because in a weaker AFC, they have two things that separate teams come playoff time: a defense that is very good and a QB playing at a very high level. Justin Herbert has truly played some insane football over the last four games. While the stats might not show it (throwing to Will Dissly and Simi Fehoko will do that), he’s shown so much control over this offense and is even doing more creation out of structure as well. As long as Herbert is playing well, they’ll have a shot in every game. Then on the defensive side, DC Jesse Minter has the Chargers defense firing on all cylinders. They’ve been super impressive on the back end, playing on a string, while up front Khalil Mack and Poona Ford turn back the clock up front. The young linebackers are playing well in the middle, and it’s really brought the unit together as a whole. Not to mention, they already have wins over Denver and Cleveland this season.

I’m not saying we should be prepared for the Chargers making the playoffs in Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh, but I am saying that it wouldn’t surprise me.

Atlanta Falcons: Contender

The Atlanta Falcons are contenders because they boast one of the most versatile offenses in the entire league. Since the opening season loss to Pittsburgh, Atlanta has a top five offense in EPA per play and is sixth in offensive success rate as well. QB Kirk Cousins is playing at a high level, doing more true QB’ing from shotgun and in standard dropback situations than he did in Minnesota, and he’s developed a rapport with receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Combine that with some of the coolest players in the league in RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and you get an offense that’s cooking up a storm. Plus, they’ve already beaten the Bucs twice and the Saints once, basically locking up the NFC South at this point.

My only point of concern is a defense that can’t rush the passer consistently, but because they have an offense that can put up points with anyone, I’m in on this team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pretender (hesitantly)

I had so much faith in the Buccaneers, but I’m just not sure this team can get to the playoffs in their current form. Mind you, this isn’t really about the offense. While they can still suffer from the Baker Mayfield bozo drive here and there, the Bucs offense still has found really nice pockets of play without WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (Evans is expected back after Week 11). Their screen game with all three running backs is really good, and the offensive line is coming together well.

The Bucs problem is a defense that is showing more and more cracks by the day. Despite being fourth in the NFL in blitz rate, they’re only 16th in pressure rate per Pro Football Reference. They can’t really get home with their pressures, and because of the structure of their defense, that means a defensive lineman is out in coverage, leaving them open to getting carved up. Their back seven has been hit hard by injury, which doesn’t add to the situation any better either. If they can’t beat the Chiefs on Monday night, the season has a chance of getting worse before it gets any better.

Arizona Cardinals: Pretender (hesitantly)

The Cardinals are the only team in the NFC West above .500. If you had that on your NFL bingo card this season I want to shake your hand and give you an award. The Cardinals are a fascinating team because they’re built like they might be more prepared to contend in 2025, but because they’re leading the division right now, why not try and make a run? The offense is a bit more high-variance than I would like them to be, but at their best they cause so many problems because of their ability to play in heavier formations. TE Trey McBride is a budding superstar as well as WR Marvin Harrison Jr, and RB James Conner is a tackle breaking machine. While QB Kyler Murray has stretches of inconsistency, he is an electric playmaker who is capable of leading this offense.

They’re pretenders for now because I still have issues with this defense, and it’s simply because they’re too small up front. The Cardinals like to play with all three safeties on the field, but because of how little they are up front, those safeties end up getting crushed by teams with a capable run game, like a lot of teams the Cardinals would face in the playoffs. For now, I’m going to say they’re pretenders. But they’re playing with house money at this point, and with a lighter schedule they very well could win the division.

Denver Broncos: Pretender

I’m just not sure if the Broncos can seriously make a run to end the season. While I love their defense and how they play when everyone is healthy, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Obviously, the quarterback spot is going to get a lot of scrutiny, and I think Nix has had a lot of stretches of poor play, but outside of Nix I just don’t really have a lot of faith in this supporting cast as a playoff team. Outside of WR Courtland Sutton, I think the receiver group needs a bit more maturation, and they’re trying to figure out their RB rotation as well. Maybe they can backdoor their way into the playoffs, but they have two games against the Chiefs left, as well as games against the Chargers and Bengals on the schedule. I’m hesitant to call them a contender, but next year could be a good one.

Cincinnati Bengals: Pretender

I’m not doing this with the Bengals again. I just can’t. Cincy is 4-5 after throttling the aimless Raiders on Sunday, but I just don’t think this is the year for the Bengals. While Joe Burrow has played fantastic football, the defense is still reliant on otherworldly Trey Hendrickson performances in order to win consistently on that side of the ball. They’re one of the worst run defenses in the entire league, which they also combine with some real confusing stretches of play in the secondary. The young DBs for Cincinnati still need more time to grow, but their schedule doesn’t really afford them much time to grow. Can the Bengals’ offense will them just outside of the playoff picture? Sure, but I don’t think they’ll have enough to do it this year.

Seattle Seahawks: Pretender

No Seahawks game is ever normal, which makes this season the most abnormal for Seattle in a while. It was always going to take time for the defense to really gel, but they allow far too many big plays to be serious on defense right now. However, my issue is with an offense that is always in its’ own way up front. Their inability to do anything up front is really hampering what they can run on offense. They’re 28th in Adjusted Line Yards, have given up 28 sacks and right now can’t even snap a ball correctly. This inability to run anything up front puts a lot of pressure on QB Geno Smith to be perfect on every pass, and not even he is immune to a multiple interception game like he had on Sunday. Even despite that, the Seahawks will still find themselves in the hunt because of Smith and the other talent on the offensive side of the ball, but I don’t know if the offensive line can do enough for them to make it.

Los Angeles Rams: Contender

The Rams did this last year, and that’s largely the reason why I think they can do it again. LA has a formula for how they win, which is a ferocious young pass rush and QB Matthew Stafford catching fire for multiple games. That’s how they beat Seattle on Sunday, and it’s a very effective strategy. As long as Stafford, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams play, the Rams’ offense is such an extremely difficult team to defend. Stafford might be putting together some of his best play in recent weeks, and as long as they can get that from him the Rams are going to challenge for the playoffs. If the pass rush, led by sensational rookie EDGE Jared Verse, can continue to be very good, this Rams team can make the playoffs.