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Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, soon to be Rafael, heading to the Gulf
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(KLFY) -- The National Hurricane Center designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 in the central Caribbean yesterday. This system will likely strengthen further and soon become Rafael as it makes its journey to the northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico.
A hurricane is possible as it nears Cuba and sits underneath an upper-level anticyclone, giving it low wind shear.
As it moves northward into the Gulf, however, wind shear will begin to increase due to the presence of an upper-level trough. For this reason, the system will likely weaken and become sheared by days four and five. Most of the weather should be on the eastern side of the disturbance at that point.
Tropical models are showing a wide error for forecast path but the system should begin to weaken significantly as it approaches the Gulf coast this weekend, regardless of exact location. This is not the typical setup for a tropical system like August or September. A strong hurricane at landfall looks very unlikely at this time, and there is a higher likelihood the system dissipates before landfall.