These races will give early clues about who will win the House

Control of the House is up for grabs, and political observers of all stripes will be watching on Tuesday with anxious anticipation for early signs of which party will hold the gavel in the next Congress.

Election forecasters have singled out dozens of highly contested seats — some of them “toss-ups” and some “leaning” in favor of one party or the other — that will determine whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats return to power after two years in the minority wilderness.

But not all battleground seats are created equal. Campaign strategists in both parties say there are a handful of contests they’ll be watching with particular attention as they seek early signs of which way the political winds might be blowing — and how well they’ll fare overall when the dust settles at the end of the process.

Those races tend to be in the Eastern time zone, where the polls will close first and results should come most quickly, although there are exceptions to the rule. Pennsylvania, for instance, is home to several close contests, but the state’s mail-in ballot rules are expected to delay the outcomes beyond Election Day. Iowa and Nebraska are in the Central time zone, but those results are expected to be known the night of the election. 

Here are some of the races that might serve as an early barometer of which side has the edge in the election night fight.

Virginia’s 2nd and 7th districts 

The two suburban battleground seats in Virginia could easily split between the two parties, and not reveal much about national trends across the country. But one party winning both would be an indication of good things to come for that side.

“I think most likely we split Virginia one way or another. But obviously, you start to get some wind in your sails if you could win two — either party,” a Democratic strategist said.

In the Virginia Beach area, first-term Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) is facing Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia’s 2nd District. The GOP is confident about keeping the seat, so a loss there could be a sign of consequential Democratic gains.

The state’s 7th District is an open race, with Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger leaving Congress to run for governor. Democrats think they can hold on to the seat with Eugene Vindman, an Army veteran who played a role in former President Trump’s first impeachment. The Republican nominee for the slot is Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret.

“If we're winning Virginia-7, or coming close to winning, we think we're going to have a really good night,” a GOP strategist said.

In a sign of the importance of the state, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) campaigned with Vindman in the district late last month. And Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will stop in Virginia on Monday, the day before Election Day.

Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts

Two GOP incumbents are facing tough reelection bids in the Hawkeye State — Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Rep. Zach Nunn in the 3rd — presenting Democrats with a pair of rare pickup opportunities in a Midwest region dominated by Republicans. The Cook Political Report has both races in its “toss-up” column.

Holding both seats would suggest a good night for Republicans, while Democrats say a victory in at least one of the races would indicate things are going their way.

Nunn, a first-term lawmaker who won with 50 percent of the vote in 2022, is facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Lanon Baccam, a son of Tai Dam refugees and a veteran of the Afghanistan War. Election experts say Baccam was given a boost by Vice President Harris, whose ascension to the top of the ticket in July has energized minority voters in small Midwestern cities such as Des Moines, which is in the 3rd District. 

Still, Democrats think they have an even better chance of defeating Miller-Meeks, who is facing off against Democrat Christina Bohannan, a former state representative, in a rematch of their 2022 race.

Miller-Meeks won her first House election by just six votes in 2020 and has faced criticism from conservatives in her own party — to include a primary challenger this year — that she’s not conservative enough. Democrats are also hoping Iowa’s strict new abortion ban will help both challengers by driving left-leaning voters to the polls. 

“Iowa-1 is probably the more likely thing,” said the Democratic strategist. “The only thing that freaks me out about Iowa is that we've seen time and time again that Iowa closes towards Republicans and against Democrats. And that could happen.”

How to look at New York incumbents

Both parties will have their eyes locked on New York — especially Long Island and the Hudson Valley — on election night, where five districts with first-term Republican incumbents will give early signs about the overall House battlefield.

New York Republican Reps. Nick LaLota, Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams are all defending seats in districts President Biden won in 2020, making them top pickup targets for Democrats.

“Our offensive opportunities rest in New York,” the Democratic strategist said.

Some of those races will be more consequential indicators than others for control of the House. The GOP could retain House control while still losing some of the seats.

But for Republicans, it is crucial for Lawler to fend off a challenge by former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) if they want to keep the majority. The area, which includes Rockland County, broke for Biden by 10.1 percentage points in 2020, before Lawler secured the district by less than a point in 2022. Cook Political Report moved the district from a “toss up” to “lean Republican” in October.

A Jones victory, meanwhile, could be a sign that Democrats are on the path to taking control of the lower chamber.

The same goes for New York’s 1st Congressional District, where LaLota is facing a challenge from Democrat John Avlon.

More challenging for Republicans will be New York’s 4th Congressional District, represented by D’Esposito, and the 22nd Congressional District, led by Williams. Democrats are confident they can capture those areas this cycle, noting that Biden won the areas by 14.6 and 7.4 percentage points, respectively. Wins by Laura Gillen, D’Esposito’s challenger, and John Mannion, running against Williams, would mark a good sign for the party.

But if the two incumbents are able to hang on, it could spell trouble for the Democratic path to the majority.

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District

First-term Rep. Don Davis (D) is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout in a district that includes the northeastern part of the state and has a significant Black population. The district was a Democratic stronghold for decades, but it was recently redrawn to be much more competitive and is considered a toss-up.

Democrats, citing internal polls, say Davis is safe. But North Carolina is also a battleground state at the presidential level, and the result in the 1st District may hinge on the bigger battle at the top of the ticket.

“Since the hurricane, Trump has really reallocated a lot of his get-out-the-vote efforts to this district, from Western North Carolina,” the GOP strategist said. “If Trump could push Laurie Buckhout over the edge, it also helps him win the state.”

Strategists are also looking to the district for clues about the Black vote, with trends there being more impactful in the presidential race than for House control. 

Ohio’s 9th and 13th congressional districts

Two key races in Ohio could also provide early hints about who will control the House.

In the 9th Congressional District, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in congressional history, is fending off a challenge from Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin. Trump won the district by 2.9 percentage points in 2020, making the area a key pickup opportunity for Republicans.

The dynamic is the opposite in the Buckeye State’s 13th Congressional District, where Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) is facing off against Republican Kevin Coughlin. Biden won that area by 2.8 percentage points in 2020, and Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to keep it in their column.

Cook Political Report says both seats are “lean Democrat.” The party is confident they can successfully defend them this cycle.

“We think they're going to be OK given the numbers that we're seeing,” the Democratic strategist said.

Democrats, however, will also be looking closely at the margins of victory and the voter demographics as a gauge of what to expect elsewhere. And GOP operatives say Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, gives them a downballot boost across the state. 

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents of this cycle, facing state Sen. Tony Vargas (D) in a rematch of their 2022 contest, and results are expected to be known on election night.

The Democratic strategist characterized the race as “a must win” if the party is to have any shot at flipping control of the lower chamber.

“It's tough to see a path to the majority without us winning Nebraska-2. I know we've said this every cycle, as Democrats, that we're finally going to get Don Bacon. But I feel [better] about it than I ever have,” the Democratic strategist said. 

Lending Vargas a boost, Harris is leading Trump by double digits in the district, and election experts say she’ll help turn out Black and other minority voters in Omaha, to the benefit of downballot Democrats.

Republicans, though, are hopeful that Bacon — who has faced tough elections in the past — will again pull out a victory in the district that Biden won in 2020.

“Once he goes back on air and reminds voters who he is, and his bipartisan bona fides, voters instantly snap back and they remember: ‘Oh, yeah. I like Don Bacon. I like what he's done. I voted for him last time and I'm going to vote for him again,’” the Republican strategist said.

Maine’s 2nd District

Three-term Democrat Jared Golden is a perennial target of Republicans in Maine’s sprawling 2nd District, which is one of the most rural in the country. But they’ve been unsuccessful in picking off the former Marine, a veteran of both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars who has built an independent brand on Capitol Hill by bucking his left-leaning party on high-profile issues.

Trump won the district by 6.1 points in 2020, and with the former president again at the top of the ticket, both parties will be following the returns closely for signs of a downballot effect. 

Republicans think they have a good shot with challenger Austin Theriault, a 30-year-old state representative and former NASCAR driver. They’re promoting internal polls showing Golden is losing support among independent voters late in the campaign. The GOP strategist said those numbers are “cratering.” 

Democrats are equally as confident that Golden will hang on, pointing to their own polls revealing that, while Golden’s support dipped with Democratic voters in September, those numbers have rebounded in the final leg of the campaign. Independents, they say, have not abandoned him.

“Golden is going to have probably the closest race he's ever been in. I think he's going to squeak it out, though,” the Democratic strategist said. “We haven't seen it collapse there for him, which is encouraging.”

Maine is one of just two states with ranked-choice voting, which can lead to delays in the results. But this year, Golden and Theriault are the only two candidates on the ballot, leading campaign operatives to believe the outcome will be known before voters go to sleep. 

“It's just a head-to-head this time around, so it should be easier to call,” the Democratic strategist said.