What could a Trump presidency mean for Pakistan?

SOME in Pakistan believe that if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election on Nov 5, it could bring favourable outcomes for Imran Khan and US-Pakistan relations. Such expectations, however, are based on grand delusions, far removed from the realities of US foreign policy.

While certain members of Congress have voiced concerns about Imran Khan’s captivity, these gestures reflect standard American political practices, where elected officials address issues important to their constituents, primarily to secure votes.

The Association of Physicians of Pakistani Descent of North America (AAPNA) is an influential organisation, representing over 18,000 Pakistani-American doctors. Originally a network of healthcare professionals, AAPNA has evolved into a significant advocacy group.

Following Imran Khan’s arrest in Pakistan, AAPNA mobilised support within the US, reaching out to lawmakers to highlight concerns about democracy and human rights in Pakistan. While Mr Khan is a divisive figure domestically, his stance on sovereignty and anti-corruption has earned him notable support among Pakistani-Americans, including members of AAPNA.

They warned that the crackdown on the PTI could harm US foreign policy interests in the region. However, AAPNA’s influence has limits, as US foreign policy priorities typically pivot on broader national interests, rather than ethnic lobbying efforts alone.

If Trump were to assume office again, we could expect his foreign policy to return to an “America First” approach. His previous administration’s decisions indicate that a second term would likely focus on immediate US economic and security gains rather than broader commitments to democratic ideals or global partnerships.

For countries like Pakistan, another Trump presidency would likely mean a shift to a more transactional relationship — one that emphasises specific security concerns rather than economic or democratic development

For countries like Pakistan, another Trump presidency would likely mean a shift to a more transactional relationship — one that emphasises specific security concerns rather than economic or democratic development. Let’s examine some key aspects of Trump’s foreign policy and how they may impact Pakistan.

Reduced foreign aid

Trump’s approach to foreign policy prioritises American interests, often at the expense of international alliances and obligations. This could mean a significant reduction in foreign aid to Pakistan, with funds directed solely toward specific security initiatives rather than long-term development projects.

While recent administrations have invested in supporting Pakistan’s civilian institutions, a Trump administration may view these initiatives as unnecessary, focusing instead on counterterrorism operations and security partnerships that align with US interests.

Greater US-China competition

Trump’s first term saw a significant decline in US-China ties, characterised by a trade war and restrictive measures on Beijing’s investments and researchers. Trump has consistently viewed China as Washington’s primary competitor, and a second term could mean an intensified effort to contain Chinese influence globally.

This stance could place additional strain on Pakistan, whose strategic relationship with Beijing, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), could face US scrutiny. Trump may press Pakistan to limit its cooperation with China, especially in sensitive areas such as infrastructure, technology, and defence, although Pakistan would likely resist compromising these critical ties.

A Trump presidency would likely place Pakistan in a challenging position, where Islamabad must balance its longstanding relationship with the US against the pressures arising from its ties with China. As US support becomes more conditional and transactional, Pakistan may need to lean more heavily on China for economic and strategic support if American aid and investment diminish.

Better ties with India

As president, Trump has shown a clear preference for India as a strategic counterweight to China, a position that may deepen if he returns to office.

This could have implications for Pakistan, particularly if Trump’s administration shows less sensitivity to Pakistan’s concerns over held Kashmir or India’s role in Afghanistan.

The US may prioritise its broader Indo-Pacific strategy over addressing South Asian security dynamics, risking a diplomatic rift if Pakistan perceives a pro-India bias that brushes aside its security interests.

Nuclear security and counterterrorism

Trump has previously expressed concerns regarding nuclear security in South Asia, and his administration could impose more stringent conditions on US aid and support for Pakistan. Increased scrutiny on Pakistan’s nuclear assets may be part of his foreign policy, with new demands for transparency and cooperation.

Additionally, Trump’s historical focus on counterterrorism, highlighted by his approach to the Taliban in Afghanistan, may lead him to press Pakistan to take a firmer stance against domestic terror groups, particularly those impacting US interests in the region.

For Pakistan, the stakes under a Trump administration would be high, as maintaining strong US diplomatic and economic ties is vital for balanced foreign relations. Should US-Pakistan relations become selectively engaged, Islamabad may be pushed to prioritise Washington’s security interests over its broader regional concerns.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2024

Header image: Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump smiles while the audience cheers during his rally in Kinston, North Carolina, US on Nov 3, 2024. — Reuters