Oscar Experts Typing: The case to try ‘The Substance’ in Best Picture

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit Best Picture, which is still without a clear-cut frontrunner.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve circled our weekly column back around to the Best Picture race, and after five weeks, this field remains very much in flux — so much so that I don’t even know what film could stake claim to being this year’s “frontrunner.” OK, that’s not totally true. In terms of the odds, “Anora” remains the pick du jour. But even the film’s biggest fan, aka me, would probably bet against “Anora” ultimately winning Best Picture next year. “Emilia Pérez,” my pick for Best Picture right now, is in second place in the odds — but that doesn’t feel right either. I think it’s possible “Emilia Pérez” misses out on both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations for “maverick auteur” Jacques Audiard, and were that to happen, it might be pretty tough to see “Emilia Pérez” going the distance. (See this one in theaters now! But it’ll be on Netflix in two weeks.) The presumed critics’ favorite “The Brutalist” is third in the odds, and while its nominations seem assured, I still don’t think it has gone over as well with critics as some might imagine. Certainly, the five jury members picking Best Feature, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Gotham Awards weren’t enamored with “The Brutalist”: It missed nominations in all spots (its actors, however, fared better with a different Gotham jury). Here’s where you say that the rankings don’t mean anything — that people are ranking what they think is most likely to be nominated not what might win. Sure, I guess. But I also think we’ve seen established “win” frontrunners by this time in the season before — and the top three right now feel like placeholders. At least we can agree that all three of those films are seemingly assured of nominations, as are “Dune: Part Two” and “Conclave.” I’m still very confident in “Sing Sing” as well — underestimate the enthusiasm for this movie from the people who love it at your own risk — but many pundits have gotten the memo to give up the ghost. I’ll die with it until the precursors tell me otherwise. That was our strong six back when we typed about this in September. The bottom four spots are a bit more flexible. We both have “September 5,” the pundits’ fave that has anecdotally continued to play well to people whenever it screens. I would frankly be shocked if the Best Picture field didn’t include the Paramount journalism thriller. That’s seven. I’ve been bullish on “Gladiator II” for months and now that I’ve seen it, nothing will disabuse that notion. So that’s eight. For my final two slots, however, I don’t know what to do. Last month, I had “Nickel Boys” (the real critics’ favorite of 2024) and “Blitz.” Now, I don’t think either will make it. Instead, I’m going with what’s to come. We got our first reactions to “Wicked” this week and at least the team from Variety absolutely loved the movie. I’ve heard whisper of that too — the Vanity Fair staff also admitted to underestimating “Wicked.” No one on staff at either legacy publication votes for Oscars, but still: I think “Wicked” is poised to pop. It’s a huge movie that should do really well at the box office and it gives the Oscars race a jolt of relevancy for the public that it has sorely lacked. Universal is good at this too — having just won Best Picture with “Oppenheimer” — and I expect they’ll be able to mobilize a “Black Panther”/”Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”-esque haul for the project in terms of its nominations (Best Picture, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, and then maybe Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande.) I also added “A Complete Unknown” this week in place of “Blitz.” Yes, “Blitz” could make it through because of its crafts and because we assume the same British voters that helped “All Quiet on the Western Front” go big two years ago will appreciate another war movie. But the “Blitz” takes remain tepid and even though it could lock up the Mom Vote due to its subject matter, I wonder if that’s enough. “A Complete Unknown” remains a complete unknown. But if it’s good — and since nothing else has really stepped up to claim a spot at the bottom of this field — I think it could become a Thing. Maybe the smart play is to go with “A Real Pain” for one of these last spots. Like “A Complete Unknown,” it’s also a Searchlight release and we know they can mobilize a campaign. But it still feels like an actor-screenplay showcase more than a true Best Picture contender. Joyce, tell me why I’m wrong and where you think this field might go as we hit November.

joyceeng: Sir, this is a Wendy’s, and once again, Audiard is a “renegade auteur.” Gosh. I still have “Anora” in first, but that again doesn’t mean I think it’s definitely winning. I don’t see why it’s bad if the top three feel like placeholders. So what if they are? Why do we need to call the race on Friday, Nov. 1 for something that will happen on Sunday, March 2? Things change! Things clarify! Embrace the uncertainty! Three of the last four frontrunners at this stage went all the way, so I’d rather have an up-in-the-air race, in which you can make a case for multiple films to take the prize and nothing feels overwhelmingly strong, than just waiting for the inevitable coronation of the favorite. It’s just more fun and interesting. I dropped “Blitz” for “A Real Pain” a few weeks ago. I agree “Blitz” can still make it in, but the film doesn’t seem to really spark passion. We’ve talked about how it could be a “Nightmare Alley” and sneak in by the skin of its teeth crafts support, but I wonder if it would be more like “Babylon” with just a trio of below-the-line bids. “Babylon” has a devoted stan army, but it was also a high-profile bomb. At least “Blitz” — out now in limited; stream on Apple TV+ in three weeks! — won’t have to deal with that label. I’m not going to touch “A Complete Unknown” until there’s more data, but Searchlight is already doing its thing with the promo rollout. The teaser and trailer were fine, but the featurettes have gone over better. I’m shocked you didn’t mention your dark horse fave “The Substance.” There are obviously a lot of hopedictions for it in multiple categories. I recently rewatched the film at a screening where an older male Academy member told me he liked it and that it was “smarter” than a lot of body horror. And YMMV, but the movie really is not that squeamishly gross, and it’s one of the few films that’s growing in buzz (and box office) every week. If you’re a voter, you might get a case of FOMO hearing everyone talk about it. Is everyone’s assumption that older votes will reject the film greatly exaggerated?

SEE Experts slugfest: Gotham Awards nominations, ‘A Real Pain,’ ‘Juror #2’

Christopher Rosen: I’m not (that) old, nor an Oscar voter — but my tastes run pretty traditional and normie. So I’ll just speak for me: I was dreading “The Substance” because I hate body horror and gross stuff and exploitation movies — and I had a blast. The movie is accessible, funny, and — yes — smart. I don’t think it’ll be an impediment to Oscar voters at all. And yet… I don’t know that I think it’ll make the Best Picture field. But if Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley break out of the Film Twitter bubble — if, let’s say, they manage to land SAG Award nominations — then I’ll feel more confident in the movie overall. It definitely has the passion — perhaps more than “Nickel Boys” — and I could see the movie making it in. The “Blitz” to “Babylon” comp is so funny because it seems like the kind of thing that would make both fandoms upset. But I think that tracks. You didn’t mention “Wicked” there and we’re seeing it next week. Do you think it will make it into this race — or will both it and “Gladiator II” fall short?

joyceeng: Funny you mention “Nickel Boys” there because we’ve talked about how there have been walkouts for that film, but dare I say that “The Substance” doesn’t have any? Or at least fewer and you don’t really hear about them. I have nothing to back this up other than the fact that no one walked out of my two screenings of “The Substance” and multiple people from just my row walked out of my one screening of “Nickel Boys.” I expect “Wicked” to smash at the box office. My thing with “Wicked” is that people have been waiting for this movie (or part one) for 20 years and its standom remains immense, so as long as it’s baseline good, which it sounds like it is, the social reactions weren’t going to be anything but hyperbolic. Sure, it can get in, especially since it’s poised to be one of the few contenders with a cultural pulse and is a crowd-pleaser, but I’m in no rush to add it yet. If “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” land, the lower tier could be very populist and middlebrow, but maybe that’s what this race needs.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Analyzing the terribly vexing Best Director race

Christopher Rosen: I’m sure ABC executives think that’s what it needs. I wonder if the industry feels the same. In talking to some pundits, one thread about Best Picture I’ve seen spun is that nobody really wants to plant any flags before the election, because who knows what the response might be after next week. I’m not the biggest “Moonlight” fan and I think “La La Land” is one of the great movies ever made, so grain of salt here, but I do wonder if the 2016 election had gone another route, would “Moonlight” have picked up as much momentum as it did during one of the most political awards seasons in recent memory (every speech felt like a moment of resistance during the televised ceremonies)? Maybe “Moonlight” would’ve won anyway — many people still like that movie! — but I do think the climate helped push it over the top in a close race. So, who knows what the future holds here? That’s why something like “Wicked” — about a false god and the women trying to stop him — could really get some juice, particularly if its a hit with the public. Do I think “Wicked” can win Best Picture? I mean, maybe? But that’s a conversation for another day, and for now I’ll keep it in ninth place in my picks. Joyce, we’ve hit a bunch of the contenders here — what movie that we didn’t mention do you think could surprise in the eventual field?

joyceeng: The first half of a two-part movie winning Best Picture? That would defy more than gravity. You went this whole column without mentioning your one-time fave “The Room Next Door.” I still think it might be a little too aloof to make it, but it’s one of the films that is rising in the Best Picture odds. Tom Bernard better get you back on the line.