Checkpoints for believing in Cavs’ title chances

As Cleveland sports fans it is easy to have your guard up but with some (very) early season success when is it time to believe?

The NBA season is long. Not baseball long or Euro soccer long but long enough that the trees outside our doors will lose all their leaves and then magically regrow them all again before playoff basketball starts. That being said Cleveland loves to fall in love with a scrappy, under-the-radar team like this Cleveland Cavaliers group.

Before we get our hopes too high let’s look at what might need to transpire before buying into championship possibilities.

The Cavs get two or more All-Stars

Why is this important when the last two seasons have seen NBA Champions sporting only one All-Star (Jason Tatum for the Boston Celtics last year and Nikola Jokic for the Denver Nuggets the year before)? Well because historically it just hasn’t happened all that much. Here is the list of the teams in the past 20 years aside from the Celtics and Nuggets that pulled it off:

• Your 2016 Cavs with LeBron James
• 2011 Dallas Mavericks with Dirk Nowitzki
• 2004 Detroit Pistons with Ben Wallace

Now let’s look at those names again, LeBron, Tatum, Jokic, and Nowitzki. All of those guys are better players than Cleveland’s best, Donovan Mitchell. Maybe there is a case that this current Cavs team can do something similar to what the 2004 Pistons accomplished with a well-rounded squad, everyone at their career peak at the same time, but it doesn’t feel all that likely to me. That is why finding that second guy is so important.

The obvious second candidate here is Evan Mobley. In the preseason and early going, Mobley has become more of a focal point in the new-look Cavs offense and is getting the ball in more interesting places on the court. Being a front-court All-Star is tough in the East with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Jason Tatum, and Joel Embiid always in the mix making for a slim margin for error.

Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen could also make a case. Allen, having already broken through to All-Star status previously, is still a defensive stud and plays above the rim in a style that gets noticed. But it’s Garland who has the most room for a leap. Garland has all the tools, all the swagger, and even some nice advanced stats. The trick for Garland is that sometimes he plays more of a game manager role which can make it hard to get noticed. But, if he can bump up his three-point attempts and bring some breakthrough moments in big wins, there is a path for him to make it.

Cavs finish the season ranked in the top 10 for three-point accuracy

The NBA is a three-point shooting league. The top five teams in accuracy last season all made the playoffs. The top three advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs. For the past three seasons, the Cavs have ranked either 14th or 15th in three-point shooting accuracy. To help make a leap, they need to find a way to edge that number up into the top 10.

This is true as well from an effective field goal percentage standpoint where the Cavs ranked 14th last year. However, two seasons ago the Cavs ranked 10th overall and still found themselves flaming out in the first round of the playoffs when nobody on the team could hit a three in a quick exit against the New York Knicks.

The issues in the past have been twofold: either the players shooting threes for the Cavs have not been good enough or the threes the team has taken are bad shots. In both cases, there is reason for hope this season. Things early on are pointing in the right direction. The Cavs now have a plethora of guys who can take and make threes with the majority of the current starting five more than capable of hitting shots and a couple of bench specialists who should help the cause.

Finding a way to stay healthy

This one is more art than science. Last season this team had a lot of injuries. According to Spotrac data the Cavs had 11 players miss nearly 280 combined games last season. At different points last year three of the starting five all dealt with injuries that kept them off the court for long stretches. The bench depth was also crushed with Ty Jerome missing effectively the entire season and Dean Wade seeing extended injury time as well.

Regression to the mean by itself here is a reason for hope but continuity is also helpful when it comes to the injury bug. The way this Cavs team is built with the majority of the rotation being the same for the past season should help when injuries inevitably come.

Timing is a large factor here too. Taking some losses in mid-December or January because of a few fluky injuries is one thing. Finding a way to be healthy for and during the playoffs can be an entirely different beast.