2024 Mets Report Card: Adam Ottavino, RP

Adam Ottavino, RP

Player Data: Age: 38 (11/22/1985), B/T: S/R

Primary Stats: 60 G (0 GS), 56.0 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 2-2, 70 SO, 23 BB
Advanced Stats: 91 ERA+, 28.6 SO%, 9.4 BB%, 3.13 xERA, 3.67 FIP, 0.5 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR

2024 Salary: $4.5 million

Grade: C-

2024 Review

Adam Ottavino’s role in this Mets team’s bullpen was noticeably different than his assignments on the 2023 squad – and even more so unlike his 2022 role. Across those prior two campaigns, Ottavino appeared in just nine games before the seventh inning. In 2024, however, that number ballooned to 15.

He began the season meekly, allowing runs in his first two appearances. Even so, he immediately rebounded with nine straight scoreless outings. Over his 10 2/3 innings in March and April, Ottavino pitched to a 1.69 ERA and looked unhittable. Opponents only managed a measly .111 batting average and .330 OPS against him during that stretch.

Unfortunately, the Mets’ May slump (9-19 record) would correlate with Ottavino crashing back down to earth. Every single outing of Ottavino’s in March and April, outside of his first two, had resulted in victories for New York. However, in May, he pitched to an alarmingly high 9.28 ERA, leading to a blown save and two losses. His OPS against skyrocketed to 1.021 as well. As a result, Ottavino entered June with a much weaker 5.48 ERA.

As was the case in the first month of the season, it wasn’t all bleak for the veteran. Ottavino thrived in a reduced role, benefiting from less high-leverage innings. He posted a 3.18 ERA in June while mostly appearing in blowouts or games in which New York was trailing. He then parlayed that success into another solid month of July, again appearing only in games where he couldn’t necessarily change the outcome.

After the trade deadline in late July, the Mets had already let go of three relievers throughout the year: Adrian Houser and Jake Diekman due to poor performance, and Jorge Lopez for, uh, that. But, Ottavino had survived, even with his 4.66 ERA at the time. So, when right handers Reed Garrett and Sean Reid-Foley appeared ready to return from injury at the beginning of August, the Mets faced a decision about the 38-year-old’s future.

Ottavino himself came out and explained his view on the situation.

“I think it would be foolish to let me go,” he said, per the New York Post’s Mike Puma. “I am still throwing the ball the way I want to.”

President of baseball operations David Stearns ultimately decided that he would not let go of Ottavino. Instead, New York sent southpaw Alex Young to Triple-A Syracuse.

After that minor saga, Ottavino remained at the bottom of the Mets’ depth chart but finished somewhat effectively, delivering a 3.86 ERA over the final two months of the regular season. After four encouraging scoreless appearances to conclude the campaign, he was rewarded with a spot on the Wild Card Series roster as a spare arm. Still, the Mets did not utilize him in either the Wild Card round or Division Series. When the NLCS commenced, the Mets swapped a newly-healthy Jeff McNeil for Ottavino.

Throughout the season, he actually showed signs of resurgence. His xERA of 3.13 indicates that things within Ottavino’s control (walks, strikeouts, hit by pitches, etc.) were actually strong. He is still striking out hitters at a well above-average rate of 28.6% while allowing fewer walks than he did in 2023. However, he is allowing batters to barrel up the ball at a much higher rate than he has in the past; in fact, his opponents are posting their highest barrel rate against him since the Statcast era began in 2015. To summarize, advanced peripherals clearly show that Ottavino’s gotten unlucky to some degree, but his barrel rate closing in the 52nd percentile – down from when it was in the 90’s in 2021-2023 – suggests that his 2024 wasn’t all bad luck.

Altogether, Ottavino’s season should not be seen as a pure failure, but rather a volatile ride. His brutal May was not kind to his overall stats, skewing them massively. He did pitch below expectations, although he was still somewhat effective in a more laid-back role.

2025 Overview

After declining a $6.75 million player option for less money last year, Ottavino is set to return to free agency for the third consecutive year. On the open market, there are always various potential deals for veterans. The 2023-2024 free agent crop featured numerous deals for experienced arms. There are the David Robertson‘s of the world, who show no sign of slowing down and therefore acquire deals at an AAV (average annual value’s) of $10 million+. There are also the Erasmo Ramírez’s of the world, who must settle for minor league deals.

Ottavino fits more into the, well, Adam Ottavino category. It’s fairly reasonable to assume that he will sign a deal at a rate similar to the one he agreed upon last offseason. He theoretically doesn’t deserve much of a pay cut, but his overall decline in primary stats will lead teams to stray away. Thus, some team should take a chance on Ottavino with a one-year deal. A major league contract in the range of one year, $1-4 million seems realistic.

The Mets bullpen is extremely thin right now with potential departures from Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton and Ottavino. The only relievers locked into roles are closer Edwin Díaz, Garrett and lefty Danny Young. Stearns will need to purchase many, many bullpen arms via free agency. It’ll be intriguing to see if he even considers re-signing Ottavino, an aging right-hander to whom no real responsibility was assigned to late in the season.

Whatever happens, Adam Ottavino’s service to the New York Metropolitans will be appreciated. His leadership and experience gave the Mets intangibles that most others can’t offer, and from 2022 through 2024, he provided New York with 183 1/3 innings. Ottavino also locked down 16 saves while pitching to a solid 3.14 ERA over that period.

The post 2024 Mets Report Card: Adam Ottavino, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.