Guardians Season in Review: Steven Kwan
Extend the man
Steven Kwan had a great season and should get a nice extension from the Cleveland Guardians this offseason if they know ball.
In his age 26 season, Kwan put up a 131 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR in 122 games in 2024, and followed it up with 158 wRC+ in ten playoff games. Kwan dealt with hamstring and back issues during the season, perhaps leading to a fairly significant midseason slump, but it didn’t stop him from making the All-Star team as the American League’s starting left-fielder.
Among 205 players with at least 100 innings in left field since 2022, Steven Kwan leads the field with 47 Defensive Runs Saved and 22 Outs Above Average. He leads his closest competitor in DRS by 24(!!!) and his closest competitor in OAA by 10. This is the third best three-year stretch for a left-fielder defensively since DRS was first calculated in 2003 (behind only Alex Gordon’s 61 DRS from 2012-2014 and Brett Gardner’s 49 from 2010-2012). This leads to inevitable questions about whether or not Kwan should move to centerfield, but, as opposed to my belief that Andres Gimenez should move to shortstop, I do think that given the fewer chances fielders see in left and the reduction in stops and starts and ground covered in left field vs. center field, I do think Kwan staying in left field makes sense in terms of mitigating his hamstring and back injury issues.
Kwan’s wRC+ by month is perhaps notable: 154 wRC+ in March/April, 250 wRC+ in May (only 17 plate appearances), and 193 wRC+ in June... followed by a 90 wRC+ in July and an 82 wRC+ in August, with a rebound 110 wRC+ in September/October. In 1356 career PA’s prior to 2024, Kwan hit 11 homers; in 540 PA’s this past season, he hit 14 homers. It was without a doubt a great offensive season from Kwan, but it’s fair to wonder if his smaller frame will continue to be worn down during the grind of the lengthy baseball season. A healthier Kwan getting up to 145 games with similar overall production would have put him at a 5 win season. If he can avoid that high 80’s wRC+ of July-August, he’d have a chance at a batting title and a 6 win season. There is a ceiling for more if Kwan and a team can find a way to keep him from getting hurt.
The Guardians have control of Kwan through the 2028 season, so this is the ideal time for Cleveland to see if they can cost-control his arbitration years and buy 2-3 years of his free agency. Kwan’s plate discipline and bat control skills seem as good a bet as any to age well, but his ceiling probably isn’t high enough to make him adverse to seeking security over the risk of waiting to hit the free agent market after his age 30 season. The Guardians’ struggles to find productive outfielders have been well-documented; they now have an all-star corner outfielder who should be a mainstay in the leadoff position for years to come. The team let Michael Brantley hit free agency at age 31 (likely due to injury concerns) and watched him put up 7 fWAR and 128 wRC+ over 3 years while winning a World Series in Houston. Don’t make that same mistake with Kwan, folks.
Here are some Kwan highlights for the year: