Halloween Thoughts & The Scary Prospect Of a Second Term of Donald Trump…
By Ron Signore
It is Halloween. As a fat kid, I love Halloween, that is to say, I love the influx of sweets in the home. I am not a fan of trick or treating as much as a kid typically is, but we get through it because our kids are still at the ages where it’s fun for them. This Halloween is one where I am hoping the treats that come in the house don’t lead to a trick come Tuesday.
We are in the final stretch leading up to election day for Decision ’24. It is proving to be a more anxious lead into election day than it was in 2020. When I look at why, it makes sense. It isn’t just because I want the Democrat to top the Republican. This election really has proven to really not be about that simple. I have constantly expressed my disdain that this election isn’t about politics. The risks of one party winning over the other could be detrimental in so many ways, specifically for women, human rights, and the economy overall. The different routes of the platforms from each candidate and party tell a very different story over the short and long term.
Polls being illustrated as so close is the concerning factor I have in a legitimate outcome. The aggregate polls indicate a literal toss-up, especially in the battleground states that will likely determine the election. However, I do not trust polls as an absolute certainty in predictors. I look at polls as a trend indicator, which in this case, being so close does give cause to caution on certainty. Another cause for caution is due to some of the other imperfections of polling. Things like Chump over performing certain polls in 2020 and 2016 gauges a realization that it is hard to capture accuracy in the polls. Furthermore, polls indicated a much-touted Red-Wave in 2022 and other special elections where the result was the Democrats stifling that result at the ballot box.
Thankfully, there are several indicators of measure that can provide a little bit better confidence. Some of those indicators can also be tied to polls, like, for example, a typical trend of the more favorable candidate as a polling measure tends to show a trend of winning. Harris is currently polling as the more favorable candidate in that polling topic. Another favorable trend correlation ties to the S&P 500. Typically, if the S&P 500 grows during election time, the incumbent party tends to keep the White House. Market growth all together has been favorable to Harris.
Then there is more concrete data to evaluate and interpret for a hopefully accurate prediction. Since early voting opened, we have seen record turnout of early voting activity. While some states don’t or won’t count early ballots until after in-person voting concludes on the 5th, we can make some predictions based on registration data of early voting participants. For instance, nearly 63M mail in and early voting participants have been measured to date. When we break that down by party, 44% of those participating early voters register as Democrat to 30% Republican and 26% identified as other on a national scale.
In that same breath, age is an interesting breakdown in the national perspective. About 44% of these early voter numbers fall in the 65+ Age Group, and next largest chunk is 27% carried by the 50-64 age group. One can argue that those are the biggest demographics of age for supporting Chump. However, it is when we look at the same numbers broken down by gender that gives a more hopeful deduction in predicting Kamala as the winner of this election. Nearly 55% of these early voters are female. While logic isn’t always showing in who people support and why, specifically the morally deranged MAGA Republicans, the logical deduction with female reproductive rights being on the ballot would not be a stretch to realize the alignment of the 70+% of the country who favor being pro-choice would be casting a vote for Kamala.
Kamala Harris has run one of the best campaigns I can think of in my lifetime. What gives that a little more merit in my mind is that she has essentially done this in less than 100 days of being the focal and eventually nominated candidate for the Democratic party after the selfless Joe Biden dropped from the race. Since being endorsed, voter registration, participation in the campaign, and funds raised have been nothing short of phenomenal. There was a spark of enthusiasm from the core base of the left leaning voters. Compare this to what I believe to be a continuously spiraling campaign of Cheeto Boy and Hillbilly Vanilli, it gives complete pause to validate basic polling.
That spiraling campaign from the GOP led Pervert Hoover has seemed to get more unhinged by the day. Earlier this week, Groper Cleveland held a ‘rally’ at Madison Square Garden. This rally was clearly disastrous, hopefully terminally disastrous, for being held one week prior to election day. It was more of a racially driven pandering to affirm faith in his current base of supporters rather than be an event that was designed to deliver clarity to the undecided voter. Normally, the shock of what is said at these events for Pervert Hoover is minimal when you consider the constant shock value of stupidity and lies that come from speakers, specifically Chump himself, is a common occurrence. But one element that stood out in this event was a poorly placed joke that referred to Puerto Rico as a floating island of garbage. This has drawn a focal point that certainly seems like a big blunder for the right.
Puerto Rico has been the brunt of several negative comments from Chump over the years. It never seemed like there was any love loss, but the reference of being a floating island of garbage really hit with force. The blowback has been noticeable. So, what does the Orange Dummy do? He shows up to his next event in a garbage truck donning a safety vest inferring being a garbage man. Furthermore, he continued to deflect by claiming the left is running a dividing campaign focused on hate. What I believe he failed to realize is that there is a hefty Puerto Rican population, roughly 8%, in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is the state I find to be key to victory for either candidate. While polls show it a toss-up, a potential impact from the Puerto Rican blunder could be enough to sway it in Harris’ favor. But the more telling sign for me is the specificity of one of the Orange Turd’s rants on social media earlier this week in filling the world with his continued efforts to discredit our elections. Bunker Boy claimed that we are seeing cheating like we have never seen before in Pennsylvania. While this easily fits his continued narrative laying the groundwork for inevitable post-election chaos, it is my opinion that he wouldn’t put that specific rant out there if his internal polling numbers indicated he was winning the state.
Between the reality of not knowing a likely winner until days after November 5th and the previously mentioned inevitable post-election day shenanigans that will happen, especially if/when he loses, this election means more than we probably believe. Our biggest hope if the votes fall for him is that we take back the house. The worst possible outcome is a red house, senate, white house, and sadly identifiable SCOTUS. Let’s do all we can to get people to the ballot box and make this a landslide for Harris! Vote Blue!
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