Barring Anything (More) Crazy – 2024 Presidential Prediction
By Ron Signore
Barring anything (more) crazy before Tuesday, it is time for me to put my money where my mouth is and provide my prediction for the election.
I heard this week that Millard Fillmorepants won’t lose the election from his ability to be deplorable. It may be one of the single most truthful realizations of this election cycle. The always shocking Pervert Hoover can likely live out his hypothetical statement of being able to pew pew someone in the middle of 5th avenue and he will still carry support. He may lose a vote or two, but the variable lies in the unrealized measurement of the voter’s individual moral compass.
In the past few weeks, we had a rumor circulating on a potential October surprise. That surprise catalyst was supposed to be so damning to Fat Nixon that it would end his candidacy. While I struggled to accept truth in the latter, I was prepared for some catalyst that was added to his tab of deplorability. I mean, how much worse can you get from someone found liable for rape, fraud, convicted felon pending sentencing, indicted criminally in 4 states, rude, misogynistic, homophobic, racist, lying, transphobic, and the list could go on. Naturally, he says, hold my beer…
This week has circulated the alt-right comments from his nationalist rally at Madison Square Garden, including comments referring to Puerto Rico as a floating island of garbage spouted by a comedian participating in the event. Ironically, that ‘joke’ made it on the teleprompter after review from staffers who revised the speech, but they decided calling Kamala Harris a see you next Tuesday was over the line…What does Cheeto Boy do? He dresses up like an Oompa Loompa in a safety vest driving around a garbage truck like a mobile billboard of his campaign as a response to current President Biden essentially calling the only “garbage” he saw was Bunker Boy and his supporters. Which, hysterically, brought out all the MAGAt snowflakes. Apparently accepting fascist rhetoric aligned with similarities to a 1930’s Nazi Germany is ok, being called out on who they are is not.
We did get a little gift for those of us who hate this man late on Halloween. It was reported that there are over 100 hours of tape and claims of photos of Pervert Hoover with underage naked girls while partying with Jeffrey Epstein. One of my thoughts a week or so ago was that the October surprise revolved around Epstein, though in full disclosure, I thought it was going to be Ghislane Maxwell as the source of damning knowledge. Not like his loyal supporters believe anything against their cult leader, but I still find it relevant. What also makes this catalyst worth discussing in general is that it is alleged that the FBI under Chump and Bill Barr recovered those photos in a safe after they raised Epstein’s homes in NY and FL. The one’s who worry about cover ups and secret plots of weaponizing justice have yet another example of the sickness of this man and the realities of his actions. I think it is safe to say that shocking events tied to the Orange Turd cannot lower the bar enough.
In the tale of two campaigns, while Donny Dumpsinpants continues laying his groundwork for rigged elections in preparation for a potential loss in November, becoming more and more noticeably senile and unhinged, we have Vice President Harris working towards a bar that can never be high enough for her to succeed. The standards are off kilter. She literally has to be flawless while he can be lawless. But despite the adversity she continues to embrace, she has continued to draw enthusiasm, voter registration, and participation in less than 100 days.
Despite all this, the polls would indicate this is an extremely tight race. Honestly, anyone that guarantees this is a landslide victory for anyone is flat out lying. The reality is this is close, and the typical expectation should be that running for the most powerful political position our government and country have to attain should be close. But this isn’t a typical ideology-based election as I have noted in the past. This is a misinformed and brainwashed cult base of supporters, uneducated and politically apathetic core supporting him.
I will repeat, polls should not be the end all be all measurement of this race. I do like polls for trend understanding. Typically, however, when you do the standard practice of following the money, one can safely deduct the event of herding polls could be the result of the visuals we see and hear about daily. Since no pollster wants to be the outlier, many polls that would prefer to be considered individual pollsters should drop the individual word from their identity. They will aggregate data and allegedly manipulate their own models to align. NOW, to be clear, I am not necessarily accusing data in a malicious manner to fit their own narrative, but rather pollsters trying to make sure their model is capturing as much and most accurate data as possible for interpretation. The problem with that is tied to the money. You can see several polls that are not truly independent and the funds that support those pollsters show a realization that some of that data is influenced by either the right or the left in some way, shape, or form. If you look at all the polls out there, you can clearly see the more biased polling entities. Those entities get aggregated for total averages. Much like not accusing those of being malicious to incorporate other data into their own models, I do understand that when we see national and battleground averages, they are strictly the averages of all polls combined, and these models include an unknowing way to capture support for Chump since he outperformed the polls in each election in the past.
If Fat Nixon and Hillbilly Vanilli win, it will be because this election is close like it should be generally speaking. It would mean that there are far more deplorable and moral lacking people in this country than I would like to admit, but just assuming a split of democratic supporters and republican supporters ideally could sit in that 50/50 ballpark.
My overall prediction comes from a variety of thoughts/hunches and understandings. I believe that the key to anyone’s victory is found in winning Pennsylvania. My focus has been on that state primarily as I examine the swing and battleground states. As I examine the volume and the gender of early voting data in Pennsylvania, it really makes me believe that Pennsylvania will go to Harris. I really see Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota going to Harris. Based on basic calculations of Electoral Votes, that puts her over the top for victory.
My official prediction is that Harris wins the White House residency. The problem I have is deciding by how much. At a minimum, I have her winning 276-262 assuming the election is as close as indicated. However, hopeful momentum for me can have her winning as much as 396-142. To get there, we have to hope and believe the momentum in Kansas, which is a complete surprise, Texas revamped enthusiasm surrounding the hatred for Ted Cruz, a blue ticket top down in North Carolina, surprising volumes out of Florida supporting Harris, and clinching the tight races in the battleground states of Arizona and Georgia. This landslide possibility is not out of the question considering the urban areas that control the fate’s of these states. Couple that with the belief that the female vote continues to come in droves with assumption they are voting against the pro-life agenda already in play from the right. Then you can add a few other hunches based on those principles to also support that. The insult to Puerto Ricans was not taken lightly. Nearly 8% of the Pennsylvania population is Puerto Rican. That quantity alone in PA expands a potential already narrow margin in PA in Harris’ favor.
We have seen registered Republicans come out in record numbers to vote early. Now, there are a few ways we can interpret this data. If we slice by gender, the outlook looks more positive than negative when you consider the female voter assumptions. The simple interpretation could be truly that the assumption that early voting Republicans are voting for Cheeto Man. However, there are factors that cause doubts in that data. While the moral ground of his supporters is questionable at best, I believe there are enough traditional Republicans who are out voting for Harris. These identified Republicans who would vote for Harris can either be the smart ones to realize the truth about the economy, the disdain for the lack of morals of Chump himself, previously identified Nikki Haley supporters, those who simply understand the threat to our democracy through election denial, January 6th, age realization, and maybe most identifiably, the deaths of his most supported age group either by simply dying or as a result of the pandemic.
All these factors mixed with the concepts that fundraising and participation has exponentially become visible for Harris momentum from her campaign makes her a more popular candidate, and likely outperforming what Biden had accomplished in 2020. The 2020 election was tough with the pandemic. It reduced the ground game and in person impact that was likely possible during that cycle. The right currently has a minimal, if any ground game. They are not out knocking on doors in any comparative volume Harris’ campaign is actively doing. That is likely the result of GOP funds funneling to Diaper Donny’s legal fund and Harris’ team is mobilizing hard on that. And while I honestly cannot stand the pissing contest on crowd sizes, the gatherings for Harris are noticeably full, enthusiastic, and engaged compared to much smaller crowd sizes and early departures from the already small crowds he seems to be drawing.
There are times I feel like we are watching a completely different race, but then I realize the reality of hate filled citizens in this country who rally around the pandering of Chump insinuating this country is ruined and needs to be made great again. Even with the negativity pointing out Cheeto Boy’s moral and criminal shortfalls, Harris’s platform is carrying a positive tone supporting the actual work this current administration has done, but most of all, uniting the country with assurances that she would lead the United States of America, not the United Blue States/Citizens of America.
If anything changes between today (Friday November 1st) and election day that changes my prediction in an impactful way, I will update you on those thoughts. However, for now, I am prepared to celebrate the first woman, the second African American and first Indian as the next President of the United States of America. Godspeed Madam Vice-soon to be Madam- President. Let’s go and in the words of my favorite White Sox broadcaster, hall of famer, Ken ‘Hawk’ Harrelson, “Don’t stop now, boys (and girls)!”
Get the vote out hard and heavy Blue Crew!
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