Trump trades waver as Harris' betting odds edge up days before the election
Chris duMond; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; Alyssa Powell/BI
- Kamala Harris' election odds have risen in betting markets this week as early voting picked up.
- Data shows women outpacing men in early voting, a potential warning sign for Trump.
- The move up in Harris' betting odds hit a handful of popular "Trump trades" this week.
The Trump trade has wobbled this week as Kamala Harris' betting odds have crept higher amid some promising signals for the Democratic candidate from early voting data.
Kalshi, the betting market open to US citizens, showed Harris' odds of winning the election rising to about 44% from a low of about 35% on Tuesday, while Trump's odds of winning the election dropped from a peak of about 65% to 56%.
Meanwhile, odds of Harris winning the popular vote gained about 10 percentage points this week, rising from a low of about 61% on Tuesday to 71% Friday morning, according to Kalshi data.
Possibly driving the change in each candidate's betting odds are promising hints for Harris' campaign in early voting data nationally and in key states.
"The situation in Pennsylvania—where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote—has sent the [Trump] campaign into a tailspin during the past two days," Puck reported on Thursday.
The Trump campaign is also worried about losing Michigan, which has seen a surge in young student voters, so winning Pennsylvania is crucial for the campaign, Puck reported.
So far, nearly 65 million people have voted early via in-person voting or mail-in ballots. The gender breakdown of the early voting is 54% women compared to 44% men, and Harris has been winning women at a wide margin based on the polls.
A weakening in some popular Trump trades has been seen as the betting odds shifted this week.
Perhaps the most prominent Trump trades out there is the stock of Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media and Technology Group. Since Trump's election odds peaked on Tuesday, shares of Trump Media plunged as much as 40%.
Bitcoin — which has soared on the back of Trump's rising odds in betting markets amid hope that he would pursue a much more pro-crypto agenda — has also declined since Trump's election odds peaked this week.
The cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7%, though it's since rebounded, rising about 3% Friday morning.
Other Trump trades haven't dropped significantly, but they've seen their recent rallies stall, like the US dollar, which is seen as likely to rise considerably under a Trump presidency due to the potential for broad tariffs and higher interest rates.
The US dollar index rose 4% since the start of October as Trump's election odds soared, but after hitting a peak on Tuesday, has edged slightly lower slightly.
While Trump is still far ahead of Harris in betting markets, even after this week's shift, the polls are much tighter. The latest polling average from 538 has Harris leading 48% versus 46.8% for Trump.