NFL Week 9 Picks - TD scorer bets, Jayden Daniels for MVP, and more!

Betting Life’s Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich share their rest-of-season hot takes, reveal their bets for Week 9 touchdown scorers, show some love for the Commanders, and more! Assemble a pile of rotting, smashed pumpkins and have a seat at our expert roundtable!

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Touchdown Scorers

• Geoff has been on fire with his TD bets column this season. So we want to open this up to the group: What’s your favorite TD bet for this week? 

Matthew Freedman: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-195, FanDuel). Williams is featured in my Week 9 Freedman’s Favorites (RB Edition), and a big reason is his scoring prowess. He has found the end zone in every game this year (10 TDs) and is No. 2 in the league with 11 carries inside the five-yard line. I have him projected for 0.84 TDs and a 71.0% chance to score, which comes out to -245 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator). In eight games, the Seahawks have allowed eight TDs to RBs.

LaMarca: I’m like Kevin Costner in Draft Day, but instead of carrying a piece of paper that says “Vontae Mack no matter what,” it’s “David Montgomery anytime touchdown.” I don’t understand why this guy is ever below -200 to score a touchdown, and he’s under that threshold a lot. He was nearly even money last week vs. the Panthers, and he’ll likely be underpriced again vs. the Packers. He’s now scored a touchdown in 20 of 24 games as a member of the Lions (including the playoffs), including in six of seven games this season. The only exception was a game where he exited temporarily with an injury. We’re still waiting for lines in Lions-Packers as we await further clarity on Jordan Love, but I’ll be on Montgomery when this eventually posts.

Ulrich: Brock Bowers. Despite leading all TEs in receptions with 52, Bowers has scored only once this season. In contrast, 49ers TE George Kittle, who leads all TEs in TDs, now has six scores on just 40 catches. Bowers has a chance to make up some ground this week as he’s up against a Bengals defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs – and four TDs to the position over their last four games.  At +165 or better, I’m fine betting that Bowers sees some positive regression and gets into the end zone this Sunday against a porous Bengals defense. 

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Week 9 Upsets

• Who is your favorite underdog this week?

Matthew Freedman: Cowboys +126 at Falcons (FanDuel). I’m still skeptical that the Falcons, despite their division-leading 5-3 record, are actually a good team. They have a -1 point differential despite having already played four games against weak NFC South opponents. If we remove those divisional games, the Falcons are 1-3 with that one win coming by just one point. The Cowboys are 3-4, but their four losses are to three of the league’s best teams (Ravens, Lions, 49ers) and the Saints, whose offensive playcaller (OC Klint Kubiak) was uniquely positioned to exploit the Cowboys defense thanks to his previous time with the Vikings working under DC Mike Zimmer. I’m not saying the Cowboys are good — but the Falcons aren’t good either — which makes this number too large.

Matt LaMarca: I like a couple of big underdogs to potentially cover (Raiders +7.5 and Buccaneers +9.0), but I think the Browns are the most likely underdog to win outright. I really like their chances vs. the Chargers, who continue to win in the ugliest way possible. Last week’s win over the Saints was much closer than the final score indicated, but they ultimately pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Browns’ win over the Ravens was much more impressive, and Jameis Winston has given their offense a breath of fresh air. That should revitalize the defense, which was a historically good unit last year. 

Geoff Ulrich: Colts +5.0. Indianapolis made the tough organizational decision to bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, and the timing may have been perfect. Minnesota’s sack rate has come down off their hot start to the season – which conversely has led to their secondary getting smoked for six TDs over their last two starts. Flacco is a far better pocket passer, and more poised to take advantage of this sort of situation. With the Colts’ defense playing better and getting DL DeForest Buckner back last week, they should be able to make a game of it against the suddenly reeling Vikings. 

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Rest of Season Hot Takes

• What’s your hottest take for the rest of this season?

Freedman: Jayden Daniels Wins MVP (+1600, DraftKings)

I don’t know if I actually believe this, but at 16-1 odds I’m open to being persuaded. If you take a look at our Futures Odds Tool, you’ll see that the Commanders are +700 to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And that makes sense: They are 6-2 in a mediocre division. With a little luck, they could get a postseason bye. If that happens, it’s likely that Daniels — who is No. 1 in EPA + CPOE (0.193, per RBs Don’t Matter) — will have an MVP-caliber campaign and be THE story of the 2024 season. If the Commanders are priced correctly at 7-1, then Daniels is almost certainly mispriced at 16-1 in the MVP market. 

LaMarca: Joe Flacco does it again. After saving the Browns’ season last year following the injury to DeShaun Watson, this time, he shows up to bring the Colts to the postseason. The Colts were underdogs to make the playoffs this year, but this roster has talent. Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner returned to the lineup last week, while Josh Downs is emerging as a legit threat at receiver. The AFC Wild Card spots feel pretty wide open, and I don’t think it’s impossible that they overtake the Texans for the division. This isn’t super spicy — they’re currently +125 to make the postseason — but I think that’s a solid value.

Ulrich: The Vikings miss the playoffs. 

The Vikings are now on a two-game losing streak and just lost one of their best players to injury in OL Christian Darrisaw. They’ve also gotten a bit unlucky ahead of Week 9 with the Colts benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, whom we have ranked as a +1.6 upgrade in our QB Spread value chart.  

Minnesota’s last two games are also against Green Bay and Detroit–two of the best teams in the league–so if they don’t rebound this week, things will get tight for them fast. You can still get them as big as +240 (DraftKings) to miss the playoffs, which I think offers decent value. 

You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well. And upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 9.

Rapid Fire Betting Questions – 5 word answers

Answer the following questions in exactly five words:

• How many more starts will Joe Flacco make Rest of Season?

Freedman: Nine plus postseason. So 10.

LaMarca: As many as he can.

Ulrich: How many games are left?

• What do you think of the Browns rest of season?

Freedman: A lot of close losses.

LaMarca: Competitive in nearly every game.

Ulrich: Fun. Jameis/Tillman > Watson/Cooper. 

• Give me a NCAAF bet I can make for this weekend! Please!

Freedman: I tail Thor Nystrom’s bets.

LaMarca: OSU -3.5. Always fade Franklin.

Ulrich: Florida at Georgia Over 52.0.

• Who will win the NFC East?

Freedman: Commanders fans: “MVP! MVP! MVP!”

LaMarca: The Commanders are for real.

Ulrich: Jayden Daniels. TKO over Hurts. 

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