Dump n’ Chase: For Pens, time is a flat circle

This season is developing a lot like the start of last season

Welcome back to our irregular feature to ask and chase down some answers about the Penguins.

Q: Is this turning into last season?

In 2023-24, the Penguins started out 3-6-0 before rattling off a five-game winning streak (which for context came at the hands of not exactly premium opponents in SJ, ANA, LA, BUF and CBJ).

Still, the winning streak buoyed the season in the early going, Pittsburgh was 29th in points% on November 3rd last year, and just 11 days later after that winning streak was up to a respectable 16th. The good news about wild swings early in the year is that a lot of ground can be made up in a small amount of time.

Fast forward a year, and though many of the variables are different to make up the season (the power play is way better, the team defense is way, way worse) the outcomes between where the Pens were last year and where they are now are strikingly similar.

As of yesterday morning, Pittsburgh was 31st in points%, off to a 3-7-1 start. They took the first step by grinding out a win over Anaheim last night, and have what could be two more winnable games ahead against bottom-end teams currently on losing streaks against Montreal and the Islanders. Two more wins for Pittsburgh won’t totally dig them out of their early hole, but it would be welcome just the same for an effort to get things as back on track as they can be. (This isn’t to assume sure victories are ahead, but to continue what could be another parallel from 2023-24 if the Pens can start stacking a few wins in early November).

Unfortunately, that is when the scheduling similarities stop, being as the Pens play on the road against Carolina and Washington next week and may face a reality check. Those teams have matching 7-2-0 records this year and won’t be confused for the dreck that padded last season’s early November winning streak. It would be a lot more impressive (or unlikely, depending on what word you want to use) this year to rattle off an extended early November winning streak, but at some point the team is going to have to not be road kill for the better clubs across the league if they want to escape the bottom of the standings.

With a further view, there is some encouragement down the line, five out of the next eight games can be considered very winnable (DET, CBJ and SJ are among upcoming opponents). The Pens will have a golden opportunity to do some climbing in the near future, just as they were able to do last year. Naturally, it’s a lot easier to make comparisons than the hard part of actually winning the apparently winnable games, which can’t be an automatic at this juncture.

It goes without saying it’s already tough to start out so poorly, but much the Pens did in 2023-24, don’t be too surprised by mid-November if Pittsburgh can somewhat rightsize their season by punching down on the very bottom teams in the NHL over the next eight games.

Q: What will happen to the bottom of the lineup with players like Jesse Puljujarvi?

Puljujarvi was a healthy scratch last night against Anaheim, a victim to numbers since Blake Lizotte was ready to return from injury and Valtteri Puustinen scored a goal the previous game against Minnesota to justify retaining a spot in the lineup.

Puljujarvi’s hot preseason has faded, he has only one point over his last five games (and that was a secondary assist on a power play goal where he barely touched the puck). He only has one shot on goal in his previous four games. A player on the fringes is always in danger of losing his spot when he hits a skid, no matter how small it may be and lately Puljujarvi’s in the vicious cycle where his impact has decreased and his icetime has followed, making it a challenge to break out.

Mike Sullivan often uses that word “impact” when he’s talking about what he’s looking for with players down the lineup. Cody Glass has been making a positive one and is probably the best example of a fringe player solidifying his place through positive play. Puljujarvi is back into the mixer where elements outside of his control (like someone getting healthy, or another depth forward scoring a goal) jeopardizes his playing spot. That’s a tough place to be and not likely to change, Puljujarvi has to find a way to stay ready and then make something happen when his number is called next.

Q: Which singular player’s performance improvement would help the team the most at this point?

Sidney Crosby is a great example from last night’s game. Crosby only had one goal in the first 11 games of the season and broke out to provide all the offense the Penguins would need to get a victory against Anaheim. The move to put Evgeni Malkin on Crosby’s wing (along with the full-time move of productive Rickard Rakell) has been a breath of fresh air for Crosby in the past few games after suffering through the first part of the season with unsupportive winger play on his line.

It’s not too much to ask or look in Erik Karlsson’s direction next. Karlsson fired an amazing 21 shot attempts to net last night. That helped make his stat card look a little more impressive than the eye might have noticed.

Karlsson has been out of sorts all season, which perhaps shouldn’t be a surprise since he didn’t have a functional training camp while recovering from injury.

Like Crosby, Karlsson is having major quality of teammate issues as well; Marcus Pettersson was uncharacteristically shaky in the early going and Matt Grzelcyk is showing why he fell out of favor in Boston with poor play. Like Crosby before last night, Karlsson only has one goal this season. Karlsson may no longer be a 20+ goal threat like in his past, but he should be adding in more offense than he has been so far.

Prior to last night (where he notched an ES assist on the first goal), Karlsson was in a rut of seven games without an even strength point, and only two points overall. It’s no coincidence that the Pens went 1-5-1 in that seven game stretch from October 16th - 29th.

If Karlsson can build on last night and get back to distributing the puck and creating scoring chances via the pass or his shot that will go a long way towards helping the team get results. Doing it against Anaheim is one thing, but hopefully will serve as an emergence to continue when the Pens see better opponents in the coming week. Just as Crosby broke out last night with two goals, if Karlsson can pop off to directly create a couple of goals in an upcoming game the team will likely be celebrating a victory at the end of the night.