Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi prediction, pick: Long layoffs make UFC Edmonton headliner tough call

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 246 main event between Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi.

Brandon Moreno UFC Fight Night 246 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 21-8-2 MMA, 17-5 UFC
• Height: 5’7″ Age: 30 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70″
• Last fight: Decision loss to Brandon Royval(Feb. 24, 2024)
• Camp: Team Moreno (Las Vegas/Mexico)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC flyweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard leg and head kicks
^ Works well off of the lead side
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid scrambles and submissions

Amir Albazi UFC Fight Night 246 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 17-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last fight: Decision win over Kai Kara-France (June 3, 2024)
• Camp: Fight Ready MMA (Arizona)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
^ In and out of the gi
+ 5 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid sense of range
^ Good eyes in exchanges
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Superb back control

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi point of interest: Flyweight fisticuffs

The main event in Edmonton features a showdown between top-ranked flyweights, [autota]Brandon Moreno[/autotag] and Amir Albazi.

Although Albazi was a prospect who was initially hailed for his grappling accolades, the Iraq-born fighter has shown a natural aptitude for striking since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Albazi does well when it comes to keeping an active and educated lead hand, displaying a consistent feinting or prodding presence.

Offensively, this allows Albazi to connect punches and play off of prior work by hooking off of his jabs and so forth. Defensively, Albazi’s feinting presence helps draw out his opponent’s reactions which, in turn, can lead to some crucial counter opportunities.

Always dangerous to get too predictable with your head movement and counters. pic.twitter.com/iO7S5UaJWn

— Miguel Class (@MigClass) May 31, 2023

Albazi also appears to have excellent eyes in exchanges, which is something that surely contributes to his solid sense of range. I’ll be curious to see if Albazi looks to control leg kick traffic, but he, too, will need to be careful about the potential counters coming from Moreno’s way.

Moreno, who initially stepped onto the UFC scene as more of a grapple-first fighter, has since developed into a more complete and technical striking threat as he’s matured.

Still only 30 years of age, Moreno continues to display almost unshakable composure, win or lose, almost as if he’s determined to finish the fight stronger than his foe. But when you look beyond the brief, brash moments that allow his character to shine, you can see a more mature countering game at play.

Always a fan of the left hook (both coming forward and off the counter), Moreno does a much better job of variating both his timing and targets, often working them off of a jab. The theme of lead-side savvy travels fluently for the Mexican fighter in the way that Moreno attaches lead-leg kicks to his combinations when feeling in stride.

Moreno also has a knack for navigating extended exchanges, but I’m not sure how much he’ll want to do that given the potential level-changing counters that lay in wait.

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering that grappling is a large part of Albazi’s game, do not be shocked if he is the first to engage in the grappling department.

As mentioned in the previous section, Albazi is a fighter who initially excelled in the grappling arts. A tenacious competitor, Albazi’s aggression shines through in transition – something he seems to be applying to his wrestling repertoire.

Even though Albazi has the athletic ability to shoot in the open, his more effective setups and takedowns seem to come against the fence or in the clinch. And since Albazi appears to have spent this last training camp at Fight Ready MMA, I suspect those takedown tools will only be sharper this Saturday.

Luckily for Moreno, the Mexican is far from a slouch in the grappling department.

Starting off his career as more of a jiu-jitsu fighter, Moreno smartly swam toward the wrestling side of things (from an offensive standpoint) after being afforded the chance to train stateside through the UFC’s former developmental program.

Although Moreno was still not beyond being taken down or scoring submissions off his back, he offered plenty of glimpses of improvement during his first run with the promotion.

Moreno has been much more aggressive on the feet during this second stint, but doesn’t seem to be ignoring the other parts of his game. As far as grappling and wrestling scrambles go, Moreno was able to come out on top of stanzas against some of the division’s best grapplers in Jussier Formiga and Askar Askarov (who he clearly beat, in my opinion).

But for as good as Moreno’s grappling is concerned, he may want to pick his spots wisely with a fighter like Albazi.

Albazi is an avid back-taker with fantastic controls from the rear mount. Whether Albazi’s opting to lock down opponents from safer rear-riding positions or utilizing crab rides to transition, the Iraqi-born fighter does a great job at staying behind his opponent’s knees and elbows whenever possible (a quiet key to look for in good grapplers).

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi odds

The oddsmakers and the public favor the former champion, listing Moreno -172 and Albazi +134 via FanDuel.

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi prediction, pick

Considering that Moreno is the more proven product (in general and over five rounds), it’s not a big shock to see the Mexican fighter favored in this spot. However, it’s hard to know exactly where either fighter is at this point in their career.

Outside of an insane slew of title fights since the pandemic, Moreno has also experienced multiple camp changes in said time. Whereas Albazi, who has had to overcome some recent health scares, has also shifted his training camp ahead of his contest.

The larger octagon and 25-minute time frame should favor Moreno on paper, but I worry that the Mexican fighter’s cage positioning puts him in prime operating space for Albazi.

Although Moreno is not beyond stepping on the gas and taking initiatives of his own, he traditionally likes to counter and can be pushed into playing between the fence and inner-black octagon lines.

Should Moreno allow Albazi to take the initiative early, then I suspect that Albazi can draw out the former champ’s hooks and get off takedown entries along the cage en route to banking some early rounds. And if Albazi shows the pacing improvements that typically come with the second swings at five-round affairs, then I believe we’ll be in for a competitive fight from start to finish.

Despite usually siding with the more proven products, I find myself fading my usual trends given how god-awful my picks have been this year. I wouldn’t mind being wrong as a fan of Moreno, but I’ll be semi-reluctantly siding with Albazi to edge out another decision by having the more effective grappling and landing the more eye-catching shots.

Prediction: Albazi by decision

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi start time, where to watch

As the main event, Moreno and Albazi are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 246.