College football spread picks, Week 10: Ohio State-Penn State, Pitt-SMU and more

Somehow, it’s already Week 10 of the college football season, and conference standings, the College Football Playoff race and Heisman Trophy campaigns are heating up as we head toward the first football Saturday in November.

We here at For The Win had a solid stretch of picks for our Week 9 games, but Blake Schuster remains at the top of the leaderboard with a 53-41 record against the spread so far this season. But the rest of us are trying to catch up, and hopefully Week 10’s games will help.

This week among our 10 picks against the spread, we’ve got a couple ranked matchups with No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State and then No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU for an ACC showdown — plus some games that could be chaotic or just ugly.

So here are our 10 college football picks against the spread for Week 10. Tail responsibly, and best of luck out there.

All odds via BetMGM

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State, Saturday, noon ET on Fox

Opening Line: Ohio State -3.5

Blake Schuster: Penn State +3.5

The Nittany Lions should not be a home dog based on how Ohio State looked last week. But they should be a home dog based on James Franklin’s ability to lose these big matchups in crushing fashion. It’s no stretch to say his job depends on a win here.

Mitchell Northam: Ohio State -3.5

Let’s see it, Penn State. Prove me wrong.

Christian D’Andrea: Penn State +3.5

Feels like the kind of game the Nittany Lions lose on a heartbreaking field goal as time expires.

Michelle Martinelli: Ohio State -3.5

Both teams didn’t look great last week, and they’re each a little banged up. But between Penn State’s penchant for slow offensive starts and quarterback Drew Allar being a game-time decision because of an injury, the Buckeyes probably cover here.

Tyler Nettuno: Ohio State -3.5

Look, I’m certainly re-evaluating my priors on Ohio State a bit after the way it played on Saturday. But I still question Penn State’s ability to win these big games, and Drew Allar’s status being in question doesn’t ease my concerns.

Duke at No. 5 Miami, Saturday, noon ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: Miami -20.5

Blake Schuster: Duke +20.5

I’m paying less attention to the fact Duke lost in overtime against SMU than am I to the fact Duke forced six turnovers in that game. Miami takes care of the ball well, but that’s a confident defense it has to face now. Not to mention the whole Manny Diaz of this all.

Mitchell Northam: Duke +20.5

The Blue Devils’ offense might be incompetent, but the defense is Capital-G Good. Plus, I have to believe Manny Diaz is at least a little motivated to stick to Miami.

Christian D’Andrea: Duke +20.5

Miami beat Florida State by 22, but as we all know Duke is at least two points better than FSU.

Michelle Martinelli: Duke +20.5

Miami will win (or definitely should win), but the Hurricanes are basically a handful of points away from having multiple losses this season. The Blue Devils’ offense is nothing special, but their defense could mess Cam Ward and Miami up a bit.

Tyler Nettuno: Duke +20.5

The Blue Devils simply won’t have the offensive firepower to win this game, but this may be the best defense Miami has faced yet. This is personal for Manny Diaz, and I expect Duke to throw some punches in the first half and keep it close enough to cover.

No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas, Saturday, noon ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Ole Miss -9.5

Blake Schuster: Arkansas +7

The Razorbacks are among the most two-faced teams in FBS right now. That said, they’ll cover against an Ole Miss team that looks directionless at the moment.

Mitchell Northam: Arkansas +7

This feels like too many points for a home dog, especially this Hogs team that has proven it can punch above its weight.

Christian D’Andrea: Arkansas +7

I have no idea what the Razorbacks actually are, but they’re good enough to keep this close.

Michelle Martinelli: Ole Miss -7

It’s a lot of points for sure, but I think Lane Kiffin and co. hit the gas here to just barely stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Tyler Nettuno: Ole Miss -7

Is Arkansas capable of winning this game? Absolutely. But I think Ole Miss has been written off a little too quickly after a pair of pretty flukey losses. I don’t see Lane Kiffin’s team dropping another game like this.

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois, Saturday, noon ET on FS1

Opening Line: Illinois -2.5

Blake Schuster: Minnesota -3

It’s time for the Gophers to bury Illinois in the Big Ten race. Sorry, Bret, but you’re going to look great covered in Duke’s Mayo in a month or so.

Mitchell Northam: Illinois +3

I’m not really sure why Illinois is a home dog here, but I believe in the Fighting Berts.

Christian D’Andrea: Illinois +3

Minnesota is heating up, but I don’t think it’s “lay points on a road against a solid conference opponent” good this year.

Michelle Martinelli: Minnesota -3

The Golden Gophers looked better last week than previously, and Illinois is nursing its wounds from an ugly Oregon — though it should probably still be favored. Minnesota is looking better, and this is about the time of the year anyway when a ranked Illinois team gets fully exposed.

Tyler Nettuno: Illinois +3

I’m impressed with the progress Minnesota seems to be making on offense, but I have a hard time believing it will find the same success against Illinois that it did against Maryland. I’m frankly surprised to see the Gophers favored here, especially on the road.

No. 1 Oregon at Michigan, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+

Opening Line: Oregon -3.5

Blake Schuster: Oregon -14.5

Michigan is feeling pretty good after beating Michigan State, but frankly, it shouldn’t. Reality is about to hit back when another real contender comes to the Big House. Oregon has passed every test this season, and it’ll continue to do so here against an offense that isn’t built to keep up.

Mitchell Northam: Oregon -14.5

Two-ish touchdowns feels like the right margin here, but it could also be a lot more. The Wolverines ain’t built to keep up with the Ducks this season.

Christian D’Andrea: Oregon -14.5

Finally, I can get back to having so, so little faith in the Wolverines. It had been a while.

Michelle Martinelli: Oregon -14.5

There is no way Michigan’s offense can match Oregon point for point, and the Wolverines’ defense gave up 17 points to a very mediocre Michigan State team last week. The Ducks are so clearly looking like the best team in the country, and Michigan is pretty much on another planet.

Tyler Nettuno: Oregon -14.5

This spread is a bit on the large side for my liking, but I just don’t have enough confidence in Michigan to score points in this game, despite some semblance of progress on offense in the win over Michigan State.

Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia in Jacksonville, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: Georgia -20.5

Blake Schuster: Florida +16.5

As someone with no rooting stake in either team, but who loves chaos, I cannot wait for this game to save Billy Napier’s job.

Mitchell Northam: Georgia -16.5

Is Florida better than we thought they’d be? Yes. Are the Gators good enough to beat the Dawgs? No.

Christian D’Andrea: Georgia -16.5

The Bulldogs have won each of their last three Cocktail Parties by at least 22 points. Don’t think *this* Florida team is gonna be the one to break the streak.

Michelle Martinelli: Florida +16.5

The Gators probably aren’t winning — but wouldn’t that be some fun to inject into the SEC? — and even though Georgia has been looking notably stronger compared with the first half of the season, you can’t discount weirdness and high tensions of a rivalry game.

Tyler Nettuno: Georgia -16.5

The Gators seem to be making progress on both sides of the ball, but the defense has been feasting against struggling offenses while the offense has yet to turn in a strong showing against a good defensive front. I don’t like that recipe heading into this game, though I don’t expect Florida to get absolutely rolled.

Texas Tech at No. 11 Iowa State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Iowa State -11

Blake Schuster: Texas Tech +13.5

This matchup has a history of the final score staying within two possessions. I’ll ride with the trend and a sneaky good Tech team.

Mitchell Northam: Texas Tech +13.5

It feels like Iowa State is going to get got at some point. Texas Tech seems capable of pulling it off.

Christian D’Andrea: Iowa State -13.5

Just a vibes pick. No idea how this one will turn out. Apologies for not feeling more strongly about Ames or Lubbock.

Michelle Martinelli: Texas Tech +13.5

This Red Raiders team isn’t great, and Iowa State is still, somewhat impressively, undefeated. Maybe this is the game the Cyclones finally lose, maybe it’s not. But it feels a lot closer than two touchdowns.

Tyler Nettuno: Texas Tech +13.5

The Red Raiders have suffered a couple disappointing losses in a row now, but Iowa State has played with its food against solid Big 12 opponents too many times for my liking.

Louisville at No. 11 Clemson, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Clemson -8.5

Blake Schuster: Clemson -10.5

The Cardinals haven’t covered in five consecutive games. I simply cannot trust them whatsoever.

Mitchell Northam: Clemson -10.5

Louisville shouldn’t be much of a problem for the Tigers.

Christian D’Andrea: Clemson -10.5

Louisville isn’t especially good but doesn’t typically get blown out. But now the Cardinals have to face a wrecking ball that’s been destroying opponents since a Week 1 loss and, yep, that’s the streak that’s probably gonna win.

Michelle Martinelli: Clemson -10.5

Fine.

Tyler Nettuno: Clemson -10.5

This legitimately looks like the best Clemson team since Trevor Lawrence left, and whatever intrigue Louisville presented earlier in the season has mostly faded.

No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ACC Network

Opening Line: SMU -6.5

Blake Schuster: Pitt +7.5

After surviving a scare against Duke, I’ll bet this game stays pretty close throughout. I’m only taking Pitt because of the hook. If this line were SMU -6.5 still I’d be riding with the ponies.

Mitchell Northam: Pitt +7.5

SMU lost the turnover battle 0-6 last week against Duke and still won. If the Ponies are that careless with the ball against Narduzzi’s Panthers, they’ll pay for it.

Christian D’Andrea: Pitt +7.5

Pittsburgh will eventually vomit down its own chest in a vital moment to devastate its fans. This is canon. I don’t believe it will happen against a not-quite-trustworthy SMU team.

Michelle Martinelli: SMU -7.5

This is a big spread and a long way for the Panthers to travel. After a close but messy overtime win against Duke, I say the Ponies clean themselves up and deal Pitt its first loss of the season.

Tyler Nettuno: Pitt +7.5

Even on the road, I’m a bit surprised by this line. I think the Panthers look like the more complete team, and I think they’ll not only cover this spread but win the game outright.

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+

Opening Line: Texas A&M -4

Blake Schuster: Texas A&M -2.5

There’s no way the Aggies lose this after last week, right? Right?!

Mitchell Northam: Texas A&M -2.5

This feels a little trap-gamey, but I think Elko will get the job done against a frisky South Carolina team.

Christian D’Andrea: Texas A&M -2.5

This line feels like a trap. One of those games where you make a snap decision, feel great about it and then go, “Of course, Vegas was right,” after you don’t even come close to covering.

Michelle Martinelli: Texas A&M -2.5

It would be so funny if the Aggies lost and really threw the SEC standings into chaos. I just don’t see that happening here, even if we all agree this is a potential trap game.

Tyler Nettuno: Texas A&M -2.5

The major question entering this game is: Who starts at quarterback for the Aggies against a legitimately very strong South Carolina defense? But the Gamecocks can’t score, which is going to be a problem against a Texas A&M defense that had Garrett Nussmeier seeing ghosts in the second half on Saturday night.