Johnson, facing uncertain future, seeks to save House GOP

BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), in an interview with The Hill from the campaign trail in Pennsylvania, said he “probably underestimated” just how much work it would be to lead the House GOP’s massive political operation.

Johnson has been on the road constantly this fall, crisscrossing the country to raise money and preserve — and try to grow — a fragile GOP majority. 

“We had a big challenge ahead of us, and I knew there was some travel involved. But I think I've had to travel more than my predecessors, because I was introducing myself to people for the first time,” said Johnson, who recently reached the one-year mark as Speaker.

“It’s been all-encompassing,” he added.

Johnson has been tasked with leading a fractious House GOP conference with an excruciatingly small majority, and it could stay that way even if Republicans keep the lower chamber.

Stumping in support of GOP House candidate Ryan Mackenzie eight days before Election Day in Bethlehem, Pa. — the 243rd city across 40 states that he’s visited in the last year — Johnson told a crowd of about 90 people packed into a GOP field office about the difficulties of legislating with just a razor-thin margin.

“It is not like herding cats. It is like exotic animals — and half of them have rabies in Washington. It’s a very dangerous job,” Johnson said to a crowd of about 90 people.

“I spent half my day as the Speaker of the House, the other half as a mental health counselor.  The solution is to grow that majority and to have people who can come in on day one and perform for the people who govern,” Johnson said.

The irony is that Johnson's future is in question whether he succeeds or fails. 

Many Republicans expect that Johnson wouldn’t be elected to leadership if the GOP is relegated to the minority.

Johnson declined to say whether he would seek the top slot in that scenario, telling The Hill: “I have not given it a thought because I don't believe that's going to happen, and I have to stay laser-focused on delivering this vote.”

If Republicans keep control of the chamber, Johnson’s ability to remain Speaker depends on the margin. A Speaker must get a majority of the votes on the House floor, meaning Johnson would need the vast majority of Republicans to back him.

Earlier this year, Democrats stepped in to kill an effort led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to oust Johnson. A total of 11 Republicans voted against tabling the matter, raising questions about how much support Johnson could get in a Jan. 3 floor vote.

Asked whether he would seek or accept votes from Democrats on the House floor for Speaker to avoid a drawn-out floor fight, Johnson said he intends “to have my party’s support for Speaker” — a job he clearly wants.

“I don't think it's wise to switch quarterbacks or coaches in the middle of a game,” Johnson said, going on to reference the economic plan he hopes to pass under unified Republican control. “In order for us to implement the very aggressive strategy that we have to implement, to do the things we've all promised to do, you're going to have to have continuity of leadership.”

Johnson’s office over the weekend blasted out a release highlighting more than 50 conservative leaders and organizations who praised him on the anniversary of being elected Speaker.

But it is former President Trump who could be most influential in rallying rabble-rousers around a Speaker. And in a good sign for Johnson, Trump gave him a stamp of approval at his Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday, predicting that Johnson will be around “for a long time.”

“Such a nice-looking guy. Just that little beautiful face with the glasses, got the little glasses. Everyone said, 'Oh, he's so nice. He's such a nice person.' He's not a nice person. He's not nice at all,” Trump said, referencing a contentious interview on NBC’s "Meet the Press" in which Trump said Johnson “decapitate[d]” the host.

Chosen to be Speaker in part because of his lack of political enemies, Johnson has certainly made some GOP members unhappy in the last year over his legislative play calls.

But, Johnson said: “I’m still a nice guy.”

“I have to be tough. You got to push back … but you can disagree with people in an agreeable manner, and I try to treat everybody with dignity and respect, even when they're trying to do gotcha questions on live television,” Johnson said.

Johnson highlighted his close relationship with Trump on the campaign trail, performing— at the urging of the Pennsylvania crowd — an impression of the former president as a cardboard cutout of Trump stood behind him. He took a selfie video with the attendees that he said he would send to Trump, pumping up the attendees.

His time on the stump that day also ignited a controversy about GOP plans for health care after Vice President Harris’s campaign said Johnson’s “no ObamaCare” comment forecast plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act. 

Johnson, in a statement to The Hill, accused the Harris campaign of misrepresenting his remarks, saying he “offered no such promise to end ObamaCare, and in fact acknowledged that the policy is ‘deeply ingrained’ in our health care system.”

Overall, though, the campaign-trail Speaker showed a stark contrast to his normally buttoned-up presentation on Capitol Hill, where he has faced no shortage of headaches from within his own conference. Sporting some “new swag” in the form of a Trump-Vance jacket embroidered with “Speaker Mike Johnson” — “It doesn’t quite fit, but who cares?” —  he appeared relaxed and jovial on the stump, cracking jokes as he fielded questions.

“People ask me if I'm having fun. I enjoy the people, I enjoy these events and all that. But I mean, the job itself is just, it's a very difficult one. It would be for anybody,” Johnson said. 

Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main Super PAC that is aligned with House GOP leadership, told The Hill that Johnson is “exceptionally well-spoken and articulate.”

“He has charm and comes across as rather earnest. All of that has really accrued to his benefit,” Conston added.

When Johnson skyrocketed from relative obscurity to Speaker, there were significant doubts about his ability to keep up the political pace set by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who was praised for his electoral knowledge and fundraising prowess and saw two cycles of House GOP gains. 

“I went from having, I think, 19 employees to over 100 overnight,” Johnson said. 

He’s calmed some of those worries. Johnson announced a $27.5 million fundraising haul for campaign committees and individual candidates from July through September, a sum that his political team said amounts to the “highest amount raised by a Republican Speaker of the House in the third quarter of a presidential election year.” 

But when those qualifiers are stripped away, it does not break an all-time record for a House GOP leader. McCarthy, for instance, announced raising $31.5 million in the first quarter of 2022 when he was minority leader. And overall, Republican fundraising for GOP House candidates and the National Republican Congressional Committee has lagged behind that of Democrats, causing GOP leaders to sound the alarm to their members.

Outside groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), though, have seen more success under Johnson. CLF posted its highest quarterly fundraising ever in the July-through-August period at $81.4 million.

“Donors took a wait-and-see approach, and as he performed, and as he came to get to know and really develop relationships with donors, they have really taken to him,” Conston said.

In addition to taking the helm of the fundraising efforts, Johnson inherited McCarthy’s candidate recruitment “midstream.” Johnson said part of the reason for his extensive travel was to get to know the candidates and the communities they represent.

Joe Steber, the chair of Veterans for Ryan Mackenzie and a longtime political operator in the Pennsylvania community, got the sense that Johnson was more present and involved at the local level than McCarthy was. And he recognized that could help the Speaker next year.

“If he winds up with a few freshmen congressmen he's come out and helped, you know, that could be the difference from him getting reelected Speaker of the House,” Steber said.

Leadership elections, in which the House GOP will nominate its leaders by simple majority, are set to take place the week after the Nov. 5 election. But there is a possibility there will not be enough seats called to definitively say which party will control the House by then. It took more than a week for election forecasters to call the House for Republicans in 2022.

Asked about the possibility of delaying leadership elections if House control is unclear, Johnson said: “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. We’re planning to follow the calendar.”

And the same week, Republicans in the Senate — who are favored to take control of the chamber — will be choosing a replacement for Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.). Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) are vying for the post.

Johnson said he has “good, close working relationships” with both candidates.

“It'll be interesting to see how it turns out. I mean, I got enough to do on my side of the chamber, so I can't get involved in it,” he said. “But I think it's gonna be a good season for Congress.”

Johnson has already been planning with Republicans in the Senate on how to “use the budget reconciliation process very aggressively” to pursue an agenda that includes extending the Trump tax cuts and pursuing regulatory reform — assuming the party wins total control of government.

Those kinds of legislative intricacies seem far removed from the crowd-rousing, Trump-impersonating campaign-trail Johnson. But the Speaker insists he “had a lot of time to stop and reflect on the fun parts.”

“I have regarded myself as sort of like a wartime Speaker,” Johnson said, adding that it is “a heavy lift every day.”

History will show, Johnson predicted, that “we've performed under pressure.”