In Rural Wisconsin, it’s Not Obvious Which Way The Wind is Blowing
Photograph Source: Corey Coyle – CC BY 3.0
In Subterranean Homesick Blues, according to Bob Dylan, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”—- sometimes things are so obvious that anyone can figure it out.
Polling and the opinions of those supposedly in the know, indicate that the rural vote will decide the 2024 presidential election. That seems to be ceding an awful lot of power to the people that live in rural areas (less that 20% of the total population), but given that the President is not elected by the popular vote– one citizen one vote, but rather the archaic Electoral College, it is pretty much accepted as fact that the election could be decided by the swing states and their rural residents.
Concentrating that political power even more is the fact that all states, regardless of population, have two US Senators, –so yeah, votes in rural America are worth going after. I think most people truly believe that one citizen one vote, i.e. the popular vote, is the basis of democracy. So, why maintain the Electoral College that was put in place to, “supposedly”, safeguard democracy from an uneducated electorate? After all, rural areas are supposed to have adequately funded schools, everyone is supposed to have access to a good education and the goings on of the world, so that argument doesn’t hold water anymore.
Protecting democracy from the poorly educated was an excuse, in reality, the Electoral College was created to give Southern States more voting power by expanding their population letting slaves be counted as 3/5 of a person. Since the general population has access to education and information, why do we continue to let an instrument of slavery decide our Presidential elections?
Seven swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will, (according to polls, statisticians, political scientists and most everyone else) decide this years election and Wisconsin, with a population that is 97% rural (as defined by the US Census Bureau) is the most rural of those states.
So will rural voters in Wisconsin swing Republican or Democrat this year? No one knows. Polls are a guess, perhaps aSWAG, the campaign yard sign numbers don’t prove anything, rally attendance and energy can’t measure what voter turnout will be.
Rural voters are generally painted with a very broad brush—if you are a rural resident, you always vote Republican– and that’s just not true. Rural voters over the past few election cycles have tended to shift towards the Republican ticket, but since 1988 Wisconsin has (although at times by a very slim margin) voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee except for 2016. In statewide races (Governor, administration and US Senate), Wisconsin splits fairly evenly from voting cycle to cycle. Due to years of gerrymandered maps (where legislators pick their voters rather than voters picking their representatives), US House, as well as State Senate and Assembly seats have gone heavily Republican.
Rural Americans are resentful, they feel forgotten, they feel that politicians, listen to them only during election cycles and then leave their promises unfulfilled. Yet it would seem that more money has flowed into rural ares under Democratic administrations and that they do follow through on at least some of the campaign rhetoric. Yes rural manufacturing has moved overseas, but that has happened under both parties and few attempts are made to penalize the corporations responsible, lest their campaign contributions end. Yes, grocery prices are high, but so are the profits of the handful of corporations that control the food supply. Farm income does not follow those high food prices and both parties refuse to implement policies that would assure farmers are paid fairly.
Looking at my part of South Western Wisconsin and talking to neighbors, there are those that, no matter what, will always vote with their party. Those that find their own truth in the candidate regardless of past lies, criminal offenses, shady business history, misogyny, whatever. Or they just feel the need to elect what they believe is a strong leader who says what he thinks, true or false. They are a pretty solid energized base, nothing their candidate says or does will shift them.
After January 7th that base shrunk, a bridge too far for some, while others again saw their own truth and doubled down. Granted, some have returned to the fold and with the true believers who never left, it strikes me that they are the loyal, vocal rally goers, the ones whose yards are full of campaign signs and sometimes sport hats and shirts (often repugnant) supportive of their candidate. And there are the one issue voters, (i.e. abortion, 2nd amendment rights or immigration), who may dislike the candidate but say they like the policy.
Politics has become divisive to the point that, other than the energized base, most people don’t really want to talk about it. There are plenty of rural folks that look at the big picture, those that believe that Democracy should include everyone –- theysometimes avoid answering polling calls and won’t put out yard signs. Many times I’ve been told “I don’t want them stolen or run over, I don’t want to be a target”.
Do people really shift their votes based on how other people say they will vote, or which candidate has more yard signs? I hope not, their time would be better spent understanding party platforms, looking at the candidates policy positions, past experience and trustworthiness.
People, rural and urban are, I think, afraid that no matter who wins on November 5th things will get ugly. So, only in the privacy of the voting booth will many people take a stand and only the ballot count will tell us which way the wind is blowing.
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