Cheat Sheet: Dan’s the man when it comes to readiness
Best Bet
LIONS at PACKERS
Time: 3:25 p.m., Fox 32.
Line: Lions by 3.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Lions 6-1/6-1; Packers 6-2/4-4.
Let the record show that Bears coach Matt Eberflus tried to take accountability for his team’s excruciating 18-15 loss to the Commanders on a botched Hail Mary pass last week.
“It’s all about accountability and execution, and that starts with me,” Eberflus said. “And the game didn’t finish the way we wanted it to, and again that starts with me.”
But when it comes to accountability, Eberflus could take a lesson from Lions coach Dan Campbell, who pointed the finger much more directly at himself after his time-management error at the end of the first half played a role in the Lions’ 20-16 home loss to the Buccaneers in Week 2.
“I asked our team to improve from last week, and we did improve. And then their coach costs them with a critical error,” Campbell said in the aftermath of that loss. “That’s 100% on me, and I told them that.”
Maybe it’s just a coincidence that the Lions responded the next week. Facing the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium — the same challenge Eberflus and the Bears face this week after the debacle against the Commanders — the Lions opened with a textbook nine-play, 70-yard touchdown drive. They led 20-7 in the first half and finished a business-like 20-13 victory.
The Lions have been on a tear ever since. They led 21-7 in the first half of a 42-29 victory over the Seahawks; 27-3 in the first half of a 47-9 rout of the Cowboys; and 35-14 in the first half of a 52-14 demolition of the Titans. The one time they fell behind — 10-0 against the unbeaten Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium — they rallied for a 31-29 victory.
The Lions’ resurgence is a credit to general manager Brad Holmes, who built a team the old-fashioned way — with a strong offensive line, two good, complementary running backs in ex-Bear David Montgomery and 2023 first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs (only the second running back taken in the top 20 since the Giants took Saquon Barkley second overall in 2018) and a quarterback who plays well with the wind at his back in former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff.
But the Lions follow Campbell’s lead. His aggressive style came back to bite him in the playoffs last year, when he disdained two field goals for failed fourth-down attempts against the 49ers. But in a big road game against a division rival, you know his team will be ready.
Pick: Lions 35, Packers 31.
Top plays
COMMANDERS at GIANTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Commanders by 4.
Total: 44.
Records (overall/ATS): Commanders 6-2/6-1-1; Giants 2-6/2-5-1.
Outlook: Predicting the upsets in the NFL is near impossible for amateur players. The Commanders are due for a letdown after a miracle Hail Mary beat the Bears last week. And they weren’t very good, despite leading most of the way. The danger is that the Giants, winless at home, are a nice landing spot for a team coming off that high.
Pick: Giants 20, Commanders 16.
RAIDERS at BENGALS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bengals by 7.
Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Raiders 2-6/4-4; Bengals 3-5/4-4.
Outlook: Vic Fangio put the clamps on Joe Burrow after an opening TD drive last week (84.7 passer rating) in a 37-17 Eagles victory, but Burrow figures to have an easier time against a Raiders defense that ranks 27th in points allowed. Raiders played the unbeaten Chiefs tough last week and earned the back-door cover.
Pick: Bengals 30, Raiders 20.
RAMS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Rams by 1½.
Total: 48½.
Records (overall/ATS): Rams 3-4/2-5; Seahawks 4-4/2-5-1.
Outlook: The Rams struggled without WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua (though they still beat the 49ers). With Kupp and Nacua back last week, coach Sean McVay put on an offensive clinic in a 30-20 victory over the Vikings, reminding the NFL that he’s one of the best coaches in the league.
Pick: Rams 31, Seahawks 17.
Other games
BEARS at CARDINALS
Time: 3:05 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Cardinals by 1. Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 4-3/4-2-1; Cardinals 4-4/5-3.
Outlook: If not for the Hail Mary lapse, the Bears would be coming off a victory in which they did what good teams do — steal a game to make the most of a bad post-bye performance. With an NFC North gauntlet looming, Bears have a sense of urgency. And Caleb Williams should be sharper.
Pick: Bears 24, Cardinals 20.
BRONCOS at RAVENS
Time: Noon.
Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Broncos 5-3/6-2; Ravens 5-3/4-3-1.
Outlook: Broncos rookie Bo Nix has a 102.7 rating in his last four games (7 TDs, 1 INT). Ravens’ defense isn’t what it has been, but John Harbaugh’s crew will be on-point at home after an upset road loss to the Browns.
Pick: Ravens 24, Broncos 14.
CHARGERS at BROWNS
Time: Noon.
Line: Chargers by 1½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Chargers 4-3/4-3; Browns 2-6/3-5.
Outlook: Browns QB Jameis Winston passed for 334 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs for a 115.3 rating in an upset of the Ravens last week. Consistency, though, has always been the issue. Chargers are having similar issues.
Pick: Browns 27, Chargers 23.
SAINTS at PANTHERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Saints by 7½. Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 2-6/3-5; Panthers 1-7/1-7.
Outlook: Saints have lost six consecutive games (1-5 ATS), the last four by 13, 24, 23 and 18 points, but they could get QB Derek Carr back. The Panthers have lost five straight (0-5 ATS) and traded leading receiver Diontae Johnson.
Pick: Saints 30, Panthers 22.
COWBOYS at FALCONS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Falcons by 2½. Total: 52.
Records (overall/ATS): Cowboys 3-4/2-4-1; Falcons 5-3/4-4.
Outlook: The under-the-radar Falcons have won 4 of 5, scoring 26 points or more in the four victories. The disappointing Cowboys have a good game in them, but you could go broke trying to figure when that will appear.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Falcons 28 (OT).
DOLPHINS at BILLS
Time: Noon.
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Dolphins 2-5/1-6;
Bills 6-2/5-3.
Outlook: Tua Tagovailoa had an impressive return from a concussion (234 yards, 97.9 rating). But he had three fumbles, one on a mishandled shotgun snap that led to a safety in a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals. It has been that kind of year for the Dolphins.
Pick: Bills 24, Dolphins 13.
PATRIOTS at TITANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 38.
Records (overall/ATS): Patriots 2-6/2-5-1; Titans 1-6/1-6.
Outlook: Titans will be happy to drop down in class after losing to the Bills (34-10) and Lions (52-14) the last two weeks. Patriots QB Drake Maye is in concussion protocol, but veteran Jacoby Brissett got the job done last week.
Pick: Titans 17, Patriots 13.
JAGUARS at EAGLES
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 7½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jaguars 2-6/4-4; Eagles 5-2/4-3.
Outlook: The talented but skittish Eagles seem to have found a groove after beating the Bengals 37-17 for their third straight win. Jags lost WR Christian Kirk to a season-ending injury and traded OT Cam Robinson last week.
Pick: Eagles 34, Jaguars 16.
COLTS at VIKINGS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: Vikings by 5. Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 4-4/7-1; Vikings 5-2/5-2.
Outlook: The Vikings have lost two straight after a surprising 5-0 start, with the Lions’ Jared Goff (2 TDs, 140.0 rating) and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (4 TDs, 124.5) exposing their vulnerable defense. Colts turn to Joe Flacco after benching Anthony Richardson.
Pick: Vikings 24, Colts 20.
BUCCANEERS at CHIEFS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC 7.
Line: Chiefs by 8½. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Buccaneers 4-4/4-4; Chiefs 7-0/5-2.
Outlook: Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield have lost two straight, but they’re capable, with victories over the Commanders, Lions and Eagles. Chiefs are 3-0 SU but 0-2-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more.
Pick: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 17.