March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024 May 2024 June 2024 July 2024 August 2024 September 2024 October 2024
News Every Day |

Trump is favored to win, despite his campaign

Donald Trump seems to be playing a diabolical four-dimensional chess strategy this year. He must figure he is a lock to win — and wants the result to be so close, while offending every conventional sensibility, that the D..C political and media establishment will never get over the 2024 election result. 

After all, no presidential campaign can really be this terrible. 

He has focused on the wrong issues, left powerful attack points off the table, sent bad direct mail, and shown no message discipline. Even Trump’s McDonald’s stunt was too late in the game. And now, with the former president’s latest fiasco — insulting two demographics where he’s hoped to make big gains — it’s hard to pick out much that’s been done right. 

Most campaign professionals and longtime political observers will tell you that the big issues turn politics. The Carville aphorism — “It’s the economy, stupid” — was true for decades before he coined the phrase. Trump put that law of politics to the test. 

Incomprehensibly, Trump has chosen to make inflation an afterthought in his campaign. Never mind that it has been by far the top issue for voters and independents for more than two years (currently, 96 percent think inflation is important, including 77 percent who say it’s “very important”). Never mind that voters overwhelmingly disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the issue. For Trump, inflation is a nuisance issue he won’t take seriously.

He should have announced an inflation-fighting plan this spring. Any half-witted political operation could have come up with a plan that sounded good. Instead, Trump dawdled until August and pulled out the weakest nonsense I’ve ever heard about a major issue. Trump’s plan? Drill for more oil and tell his Cabinet to figure it out — stat! 

Not only has Trump breezed past inflation, but his tariff love affair has given Vice President Kamala Harris a lifeline on the issue. Although some of a tariff increase would be absorbed by producers, not all of it would — and that makes tariffs inflationary. Harris has taken some liberties calling his plan a national sales tax, but it gives her an attack line to muddle an issue she can’t win on.

Even Trump’s focus on immigration is off. The surge in illegal immigration definitely is a concern for voters and a weak point for Harris. But Trump has decided to talk only about the criminal dimension, ignoring the effect that millions of additional people has on housing demand and therefore housing costs. 

Crime and drugs are a definite problem for many, but rising housing costs is a problem for practically everybody. JD Vance did mention the inflation-immigration connection once in the VP debate, but then it disappeared. So, Team Trump can’t claim ignorance. That Trump and Vance would choose to talk about a few immigrants eating pets (allegedly) and not on illegal immigration causing rents and house prices to spiral upwards for tens of millions is incomprehensible. 

Even something as basic as Trump’s turnout mail is terrible. I get mailers from both the Trump and Harris campaigns — and the Harris stuff is hands-down smarter and better. The Trump mail that floods my inbox just repeats talking points. There are no numbers. The illegal immigration points don’t include the number of illegals, how many are estimated to be criminals or statistics on rising crime. When fentanyl deaths under Biden are mentioned, the number is left out (close to 200,000 in 2021 and 2022, or nearly 250 per day).  

Worst of all, when inflation is in the mailer (and it’s never the top bullet point), there’s no mention of the cost to the average household. Telling me prices are “skyrocketing” is interesting, but telling me that “Bidenflation” is costing me almost $1,000 per month would be infuriating. This is political advertising 101. Yet Trump and his fumbling message mavens can’t get it right. 

Even so, Trump’s bad campaign likely won’t matter. The polling has slowly shifted to the ex-president nationally and in the battleground states. To be sure, his lead is tenuous, but the RealClearPolitics average has Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin within 1 point. Trump is only trailing in Michigan — and such a narrow margin is hardly any lead for Harris. 

With the polls very close, handicapping the final result is a challenge. Which poll do you believe? Early voting has been much stronger for Republicans than in 2020. But whether that is a real surge or just the Trump base shifting the timing of its vote is unknown. at least banking those votes prevents people from changing their minds or missing Election Day.

Trump was underestimated in 2016 and 2020. Though imperfect, betting markets do help cut through the noise and allow some aggregation of the information at hand in terms of what people expect. In these, Trump has been rising, reaching a odds greater than 63 percent. That sounds about right. 

The Harris campaign has hardly been mistake-free. Stuck in its own propaganda bubble, they it must have figured that swapping her in for Biden would be enough to beat Trump on its own. The VP’s keep-away strategy with both the mainstream and alternate media was a big screw-up, from which she is furiously trying to dig out.

Harris's choice of Tim Walz instead of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running-mate might cost her Pennsylvania and the election. Walz has been a zero, at best. His own trenchant analysis is apt — he’s a knucklehead

But the real problem for Harris is Joe Biden. Ignoring inflation, failing on the border, a disastrous national security policy (or non-policy) and denial of his own cognitive decline set Trump up for success. Compounding matters, Biden’s refusal to resign and let Harris ascend to the presidency was a colossal blunder. Biden hovers over her candidacy like an ominous cloud, occasionally spitting out thunderbolts of stupidity

Trump is the favorite, but he is not a lock to win. And that has been the case for the last year. If Harris and the Democrats ever thought that beating Trump would be easy, they were only fooling themselves. 

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.

News Every Day

Bay Area high school football: Weekend scoreboard, how Top 25 fared

Bay Area high school football: Weekend scoreboard, how Top 25 fared

Navy veteran’s defamation suit against CNN inches towards trial as judge hears motions for summary judgment

Lindsay Hubbard's Baby Shower Details Revealed, Including Which 'Summer House' Co-Stars Attend

You need the eyes of a movie hero to spot the 5 horror villains lurking near the crime scene in under 90 secs

Ria.city






Read also

Ellis: How the U.S. was saddled with the Electoral College

Road closures in Opelousas Sunday for the Creole Festival Parade

“Crazy not to take a look” – Snoop Dogg wants football club investment to have Wrexham effect

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Navy veteran’s defamation suit against CNN inches towards trial as judge hears motions for summary judgment

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Navy veteran’s defamation suit against CNN inches towards trial as judge hears motions for summary judgment



Sports today


Новости тенниса
WTA

Кудерметова вышла во второй круг турнира категории WTA 250 в Мериде



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

На территории школы имени Ткаченко в Кубинке появится новое спортивное оборудование



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Мультсериал «Команда МАТЧ» взял награду на XXII Международном фестивале спортивного кино


Новости России

Game News

Disney Dreamlight Valley just announced its second DLC featuring 4 new characters, along with a free update coming in December


Russian.city


Москва

Блогер Аяз Шабутдинов пробудет в СИЗО до 3 февраля 2025 года


Губернаторы России
РБК

«Грузовичкоф» на круглом столе РБК Петербург


В Мытищах состоялась отчетно-выборная конференция профсоюза жизнеобеспечения

В Мытищах состоялась отчетно-выборная конференция профсоюза жизнеобеспечения

Москвичам рассказали о черноморских деликатесах и их особенностях

В Мытищах состоялась отчетно-выборная конференция профсоюза жизнеобеспечения


«Он предлагает дать по заднице»! Джиган покажет, как воспитывает сына, в новом реалити «Большое переселение» на ТНТ

«Он предлагает дать по заднице»! Джиган покажет, как воспитывает сына, в новом реалити «Большое переселение» на ТНТ

Добрынин, Лязгина, Нисида. Каких звезд мы потеряли в октябре 2024-го

Дом для «козьей ОПГ»: Джиган и Самойлова построят питомник для бутовских коз


Россиянка Шнайдер с победы стартовала на турнире WTA в Гонконге

Борис Беккер назвал теннисиста с одной из лучших подач в нынешнем ATP-туре

Рыбакина узнала первую сопернику на Итоговом турнире WTA-2024

Карен Хачанов выиграл девять из последних десяти матчей на турнирах ATP



Санкт-Петербурге сотрудники ОМОН Росгвардии спасли упавшую в реку девушку

Отделение СФР предоставило 11 жителям региона с нарушениями зрения собак-поводырей

Компания «Мария» рассказала о новых решениях для девелопмента на конференции Московского Бизнес-клуба

В международный день врача прошла премия THE MEDICAL STARS AND BEAUTY AWARDS


Акцент на практику: Желдорреммаш подвел итоги реализации профориентационного проекта в 2024 году

PREMIER назвал дату выхода нового исторического детектива с Сергеем Безруковым «Плевако»

Певица Наталия Иванова рассказала, как оказалась на кастинге шоу «Голос»

«Локомотив» победил СКА в матче лидеров Западной конференции КХЛ


Столичная коммунальная техника переведена в зимний режим работы

Кировскую телебашню подсветят в День народного единства

Бесплатные парковки для велокурьеров появились в столице

Собянин наградил выдающихся москвичей за вклад в развитие города и страны



Путин в России и мире






Персональные новости Russian.city
Игорь Бутман

Разводы с американками, дети за границей и жена на 32 года младше. Джаз, закруживший Игоря Бутмана



News Every Day

Lindsay Hubbard's Baby Shower Details Revealed, Including Which 'Summer House' Co-Stars Attend




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости