Morning Report — To election’s bitter end, it’s about wallets and woes

In today’s issue:

• Voters to election’s end swayed by prices
• Trump, GOP stoke false rumors of voter fraud
• SCOTUS, courts rule on election challenges
• US envoys begin cease-fire talks in Israel

Americans still believe the economy, or at least their finances, are a wreck. Former President Trump while campaigning Wednesday called the economy “a disaster” and promised that if he’s elected, “we will rapidly defeat inflation.”

But experts at the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy grew at a brisk clip in the third quarter — meaning no recession. Analysts Friday will pore over the official jobs report for October, which they suggest could yank the punchbowl away, at least temporarily.

Vice President Harris, who mentioned inflated prices during her Tuesday speech on the National Mall, saying “I get it,” continued to campaign through three swing states Wednesday to assure voters she feels their pain over groceries and wages and has ideas she thinks will help, if elected.

“Leading economists have reviewed my plan and indicated it will strengthen the economy and that Donald Trump’s plan will weaken the economy,” she told reporters. “My highest priority is to bring down costs,” she added to ABC News during a Wednesday interview on the sidelines of her rally.. 

President Biden, who will lead an official Friday event in Philadelphia and campaign Saturday in Scranton, Pa., is expected to explain again that while there’s more economic progress to achieve, things are much improved since inflation soared above 9 percent in 2022.

The Hill: Democratic operatives hope for a Harris victory. But there are woulda, coulda, shouldas.  

The idea that the president will be back on the campaign trail and revisiting his home turf for Harris makes more than a few Democrats nervous following his Tuesday gaffe in which he appeared to say he thought Trump’s supporters were “garbage.” Biden was attempting to rebuke a comic’s putdown joke about Puerto Rico made Sunday during a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden.

The White House tried to contain the damage, and Harris told reporters that Biden “clarified” his comments. But she distanced herself from her boss. “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,” she told journalists.

The Hill’s Niall Stanage reported that the president’s “garbage” kerfuffle did not dominate the news cycle quite as much as Democrats — buoyed by some recent strong polls for Harris — had feared. But Trump rubbed it in by riding in a campaign-themed garbage truck in Wisconsin, dressed in a safety vest.

A bright political headline for the GOP arose Wednesday from the Senate, where Republicans believe they will win a majority, or at least 52 seats, when the dust settles after next week.

“At this point, we have to have 52,” said one GOP operative involved in Senate races, noting the party outspent Democrats in Ohio, a red state, by more than $20 million this cycle. A win there against incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would likely nail down the 52nd seat. “If we can't win a race with that level of outspending in a state Trump’s going to win between 8-10 [points], that's a failure,” a source told The Hill’s Al Weaver.

The New York Times analysis: A unified Republican Congress would give Trump broad power for his agenda.

SMART TAKE FROM THE HILL'S BOB CUSACK:

Who will be the next Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) of the next Congress? 

The maverick senators, who are retiring, torpedoed Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan. They subsequently helped write and pass the Inflation Reduction Act. 

Trump and Republican lawmakers have outlined an agenda that assumes the GOP will have control of Congress. While the House is a coin toss, the Senate is likely to flip to Republicans. 

But not all GOP senators are in lock step with Trump, who is expected to name absolute loyalists to his Cabinet should he win on Tuesday. So, would controversial nominees get the votes?

Keep your eyes on Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.), Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Todd Young (Ind.). None is a rubber stamp and could pose major problems in a second Trump term. They won’t hesitate to reject proposals or nominees that Trump puts forward, if elected. 

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ The economy in the third quarter expanded at 2.8 percent, less than expected and less than 3 percent in the second quarter. Biden is pleased. “While critics thought we’d need a recession to lower inflation, instead we’ve grown around 3% a year on average, while inflation has fallen to the level right before the pandemic. We need to keep building on this progress,” he said in a Wednesday statement.

▪ Wheels go round: Here’s why used electric vehicles have plunged in price. “The biggest single factor can be summed up in two words, and that’s Elon Musk,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at the car-buying website iSeeCars. 

▪ Halloween spending surged this year, and chocolate has been more expensive. But gasoline prices have dropped.

LEADING THE DAY  

TRUMP IS SOWING DOUBT about the election results in Pennsylvania less than a week before Election Day, making explosive and misleading claims about fraud in the commonwealth. Pennsylvania is widely seen as the most crucial battleground state, and in 2020 it took several days for officials there to declare a winner. Trump's rhetoric comes amid fears from critics that he will not accept the election results if he loses.

“This rhetoric is concerning, but that doesn’t mean that Pennsylvanians should worry that their votes are at risk,” said Wendy Weiser, vice president for democracy at the Brennan Center for Justice.

Trump’s allegations come among persistent claims from Republicans about election fraud — from rigged machines to illegal ballot harvesting, noncitizen and even dead voters. Claims of election fraud exploded in 2020 as Trump and his allies sought to portray their narrow election loss as something more nefarious. 

But The Hill’s Ella Lee reports pervasive voter fraud is practically impossible in America, thanks to layers of protection embedded in the nation’s election system. When it does occur — rarely — it’s most often caught and prosecuted. American election fraud is “miniscule,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution. 

“It’s never affected an election in recent memory. It’s amazing that they find the people that have committed fraud because they’re so small,” she said. “It just, frankly, doesn’t happen.” 

Isolated instances of tampering do occur, such as in Oregon and Washington, where fires in ballot drop boxes are under investigation. Hundreds of ballots were destroyed or damaged, and authorities are searching through the ballots for information in order to contact voters about getting a new one.

Devices found at both scenes Monday and at the ballot box targeted earlier in the month were marked with the words “Free Gaza,” The New York Times reported, citing two law enforcement officials. Investigators are trying to determine if the suspect is a pro-Palestinian activist or someone trying to sow discord, according to the newspaper.

The Miami Herald: Containers with Miami-Dade ballots were found on a main Florida road overnight after they fell out of a county truck. The elections worker driving the truck was fired.

2024 CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP:

Harris is stepping up her outreach to Latino voters as Trump grapples with the fallout from his Madison Square Garden rally. The furor over Trump’s rally handed her a fresh opportunity to reach a voting bloc she has somewhat struggled with over the last several months, and observers think it could be a tipping point for more Latino voters to support her. 

High-profile Democrats in the homestretch of the presidential race are laying down a guilt trip on male voters: Vote for Harris and abortion rights or you are letting your mothers, sisters and daughters down. 

In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin voters.

Transition: As Trump promises the largest mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in U.S. history, his team is considering withholding federal police grants from local law enforcement agencies that decline to take part in the deportations, NBC News reports. Trump’s allies are drawing up plans targeting legal immigration, The Wall Street Journal reports, including a return of some controversial policies from the former president’s term in office. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Monday that Trump has promised him “control” of public health agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Agriculture, should Trump win next week. 

Oil and gas tycoons made significant contributions to the Trump campaign after the former president asked the industry for $1 billion — and reportedly said it would be a “deal” for them to do so. A source told The Hill earlier this year that the $1 billion April request was not framed as any sort of quid pro quo. Nevertheless, Democrats have described the incident as corruption and said they would investigate.

Next week’s election will set up another showdown among advocates as three states have initiatives on their ballots regarding school choice.

WHERE AND WHEN

???? Happy Halloween!

• The House will convene a pro forma session at 2 p.m. Friday. The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 11:30 a.m. Friday.
  
• The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 11:30 a.m. He has no public schedule.
  
• The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:30 p.m.  
     
• Candidate schedules this week: Harris today will hold an afternoon rally in Phoenix to include a concert with Los Tigres del Norte, and will appear at campaign events in Reno, Nev., and Las Vegas. On Friday, Harris will appear in Milwaukee. Today, Trump will campaign in Albuquerque, N.M., and Henderson, Nev., and join Tucker Carlson's live tour in Glendale, Ariz., for a ticketed interview. On Friday, Trump will hold an event in Warren, Mich., and Milwaukee. On Saturday, the former president will campaign in Gastonia, N.C., Salem, Va., and in Greensboro, N.C. Today, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) will campaign in Bucks County, Pa., and in Erie, Pa. On Friday, Walz will campaign in Detroit, Flint, Mich., and Traverse City, Mich. Today, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will headline a town hall event with younger voters at High Point University in High Point, N.C. On Friday, Vance will be in Portage, Mich., and Selma, N.C. 

ZOOM IN

THE SUPREME COURT ruled Wednesday that Virginia can purge voters from its rolls who are suspected of being noncitizens. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) asked the court to intervene after two lower courts blocked his efforts to cancel the registrations of suspected noncitizen voters — an issue Republican officials have seized on nationally even though noncitizen voting is extremely rare.

As is typical in emergency situations, the Supreme Court’s brief order did not explain the majority’s reasoning (The Hill and The Washington Post).

In Pennsylvania, an appeals court ruled Wednesday that the state constitution prohibits the disqualification of timely mail ballots because of a missing or improper date. Though the decision only concerns 69 rejected votes in a special election last month — which will have no impact on the outcome — it ushers in new uncertainty surrounding mail ballot rules. The dispute could now head to Pennsylvania’s top court, which previously rejected an effort to count undated and improperly dated mail ballots because of procedural issues with the lawsuit (The Hill).

In Bucks County, Pa., a suburb of Philadelphia, a judge ruled that voters will be able to apply for, receive, vote with and return a mail-in ballot until the close of business on Friday after campaigns for Trump and Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick sued the county over long lines and voters being turned away (CBS News).

▪ The Hill: The Pennsylvania Democratic Party filed a lawsuit against Erie County on Wednesday, arguing that many voters have yet to receive mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day.

▪ The Washington Post: Michigan’s elections director ordered a local clerk and his deputy to refrain from administering any elections because the officials allegedly planned to break the law by hand-counting ballots.

ELSEWHERE

U.S. MEDIATORS ARE WORKING on a truce proposal between Israel and Hezbollah, starting with a 60-day cease-fire, Reuters reports. But Israel continued to press its offensive, bombarding Lebanon's historic city of Baalbek after issuing a mass evacuation order. The sources said the two-month period would be used to finalize full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 to keep southern Lebanon free of arms outside state control.

Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, said that the group will keep fighting its war with Israel until it is offered ceasefire terms it deems acceptable.

Senior White House officials Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, pictured above,are scheduled to visit Israel today for talks on possible cease-fires in both Lebanon and Gaza, and the release of hostages held by Hamas. CIA Director William Burns will go to Egypt to discuss those efforts.

▪ CNN: At least 95 people have died, and dozens are missing after torrential rains caused flooding in southeastern Spain.

▪ The Washington Post: China built a $50 billion military stronghold in the South China Sea.

OPINION 

■ Let me ask a question we never had to ask before, by Thomas B. Edsall, columnist, The New York Times.

■ What South Texas can teach the GOP about winning Hispanics, by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! We invited colleague and campaign reporter Jared Gans, a presidential history buff, to create a puzzle as The Hill’s newsletter guest. It’s definitely a brain-teaser for some Googling and guess work!

Be sure to email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and kkarisch@thehill.com — please add “Quiz” to your subject line. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

After George Washington, which presidential candidate came closest to winning a unanimous victory in the Electoral College?

1. James Monroe 
2. Lyndon Johnson 
3. Richard Nixon 
4. Ronald Reagan 

Of the below options, who was the only losing presidential candidate to win a majority of the popular vote?

1. Andrew Jackson 
2. Samuel J. Tilden 
3. Benjamin Harrison 
4. Donald Trump 

Who ran the most successful third-party presidential candidacy in history, the only one to win more than a quarter of the popular and electoral vote?

1. Millard Fillmore 
2. Theodore Roosevelt 
3. George Wallace 
4. Ross Perot 

What was the first presidential election year in which a Democratic and Republican candidate faced off against each other?

1. 1824 
2. 1828 
3. 1856 
4. 1900

Stay Engaged

We want to hear from you! Email: Alexis Simendinger (asimendinger@thehill.com) and Kristina Karisch (kkarisch@thehill.com). Follow us on social platform X: (@asimendinger and @kristinakarisch) and suggest this newsletter to friends.