MANILA, Philippines – “Violent conditions” continued in extreme Northern Luzon before dawn on Thursday, October 31, as Super Typhoon Leon (Kong-rey) passed close to the province of Batanes.

At 4 am on Thursday, Leon was located 100 kilometers east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes. It is moving northwest at 20 kilometers per hour, slightly slower than the 25 km/h after midnight.

The super typhoon’s maximum sustained winds reached 195 km/h in the early hours of Thursday, which could already be its peak intensity, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Its gustiness is up to 240 km/h.

PAGASA said in its 5 am bulletin on Thursday that Leon would be closest to Batanes in the next 3 hours, but landfall in the province “is now becoming less likely.”

Instead, Leon may keep moving over the sea until it makes landfall in Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), by Thursday afternoon. It may also weaken into a typhoon before hitting land there.

After crossing Taiwan, Leon is projected to head for the East China Sea and leave PAR on Thursday night or early Friday morning, November 1. “A second landfall over mainland China is not ruled out during this period,” PAGASA added.

Fewer areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Thursday, but Signal No. 5 — the highest — is still in effect for portions of Batanes.

Signal No. 5

Typhoon-force winds (185 km/h), extreme threat to life and property

• northern and eastern parts of Batanes (Itbayat, Basco)

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• rest of Batanes

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• northern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• rest of Babuyan Islands
• mainland Cagayan
• northern part of Isabela (San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• northern and central parts of Nueva Vizcaya (Bayombong, Dupax del Norte, Ambaguio, Bagabag, Villaverde, Kayapa, Santa Fe, Kasibu, Aritao, Bambang, Diadi, Dupax del Sur, Quezon, Solano)
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Dilasag)

“The wind flow coming towards the circulation of Leon” is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas, too:

Thursday, October 31

• most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Northern Samar, most of Western Visayas

Friday, November 1

• Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela

Batanes is still experiencing intense to torrential rain on Thursday, while several other areas in Luzon continue to have moderate to heavy or heavy to intense rain from Leon. Floods and landslides remain possible.

Thursday, October 31

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 millimeters): Batanes
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Babuyan Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan

Friday, November 1

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands

In addition, PAGASA warned Batanes and Babuyan Islands that they face a high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges “with peak heights exceeding 3 meters above normal tide levels” in the next 48 hours.

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In the next 24 hours, the following sea conditions will persist:

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Batanes – waves up to 14 meters high
• Seaboard of Babuyan Islands – waves up to 12 meters high
• Seaboard of northeastern mainland Cagayan – waves up to 10 meters high
• Northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; seaboard of Isabela; remaining seaboard of Cagayan – waves up to 6 meters high
• Seaboard of northern Aurora – waves up to 5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 4.5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; seaboards of Ilocos Sur and Camarines Norte; northern seaboard of Camarines Sur – waves up to 4 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region and Aurora; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Eastern seaboards of Quezon (including the rest of Polillo Islands) and Dinagat Islands; western seaboard of Zambales – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, northern mainland Palawan, and Calamian Islands; eastern seaboards of Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, and Davao Occidental – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Luzon; seaboards of Aklan and Capiz – waves up to 2 meters high

Leon is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2024, and the second for October. – Rappler.com