The NBA has a 3-pointer problem

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What’s up hoops fans. The NBA season is a week old, and it feels so good to be back. To get a rematch of the Western Conference Finals on a random Tuesday night in October was just an absolute treat. We should never complain about getting to see some good bump.

However, one thing that stood out to me from the Dallas Mavericks’ win over the Minnesota Timberwolves was the combined 78 three-pointers the teams attempted in the game. It wasn’t necessarily an issue, as they made about 45% of them, but it did follow a trend that may be of concern depending how you like your hoops and who you root for.

Teams are shooting more threes this season than they ever have in NBA history.

On average, NBA teams are taking 37 3-pointers per game this season, which is two more than last season’s average — the largest year-to-year jump since 2019-20 if it holds. It’s an increase of 10 from just eight years ago and 15 more threes than teams were taking 10 years ago when the Splash Brothers won their first title together.

NBA teams are taking more 3s than ever this season

Based on the preseason data, this was expected

Read more: https://t.co/7DnuI1yIcp pic.twitter.com/kd5BfPkNAc

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) October 29, 2024

The increase makes sense. Threes are worth more than twos. Of course teams are taking more. Especially after seeing how it benefited the Warriors. The Celtics rode the league’s most attempts to a championship last year. The runner-up Mavericks attempted the second-most.

But smart basketball isn’t necessarily good basketball. And when it’s bad teams trying to cosplay as good teams, it’s not smart or good. Which gets to the heart of my issue.

There is more than one way to skin a cat. The Denver Nuggets won the 2023 championship attempting fewer threes than the league average. Same with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. Those teams leaned into their strengths. Similarly, the Celtics shoot a bunch of threes because they’re really good at it. Yet, it seems more and more teams are simply leaning into 3-point shooting because the math makes sense. Doing so without the personnel to execute it, though, is fruitless, and ultimately just makes for some unentertaining basketball.

Unless you have a lineup full of All-Stars and legitimately good shooters — which most teams don’t — you can’t be the Celtics. And unless you have players who consistently break defenses down and get them out of rotation, many of those threes are contested and coming off little to no ball movement. In the words of Paul George, that’s a bad shot.

It’s a bad watch, too. Even when the shots are dropping like they were for the Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls Monday when each tied franchise records for threes made in a game. Minus the ball movement, it’s not the most fun to watch when the good teams are letting it fly either. The games become too homogenous, robbing us of all the intricacies and skill that comes from good post play, a mid-range game or simply attacking someone at the rim and daring them to stop you.

I’m not the first person to make this point. Fox Sports’ Nick Wright went so far as to argue the NBA should change its rules after the Boston Celtics tied their franchise record for threes made on Opening Night.

“The league needs to change the rules…You are playing a dangerous, dangerous game.”@getnickwright on the state of the NBA: pic.twitter.com/qUSJrIYryR

— What’s Wright? with Nick Wright (@WhatsWrightShow) October 24, 2024

Bomani Jones also said the league needs changes in response to a tweet about how many threes one of the NBA’s best athletes, Anthony Edwards, is averaging through four games (13.3!). “When the game incentivizes Anthony Edwards to play like Klay Thompson, something needs to change immediately,” Jones tweeted.

I’m not sure the best way for the NBA to move forward, or if it’s even something the league needs to address. As it is today, I’ll still watch it. It’s also possible younger fans that grew up watching Steph Curry and Klay Thompson like this style of play. I fully acknowledge I could be old man yelling at clouds here. But I can’t imagine it doesn’t become a problem in the near future if the 3-point shooting continues to increase.

It’s also possible the potential problem corrects itself.

After decades of 3s being much more efficient than 2s in the NBA, teams have finally adjusted their shot profiles such that the 3s and 2s both generate nearly exactly 1.09 points per shot pic.twitter.com/b7LRj5bRVi

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) October 22, 2024

According to Sportico data reporter Lev Akabas, teams have finally adjusted their shot profiles so that threes and twos generate nearly the same amount of points per attempt. Hopefully that means we’ll see a plateau in threes soon. If so, enjoying the NBA may be a matter of your tolerance for about 74 threes per game — 37 each team.

Personally, I’m less invested in the number and more concerned about how teams are creating those shots, and what they’re doing when the three isn’t open. What I’m seeing from a lot of teams today isn’t my ideal brand of basketball.

Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama

Speaking of players taking too many three per game, 7-foot-3 phenom Victor Wembanyama is taking about six per game this season despite shooting just 22% on them. But if there’s one thing that might get Wembanyama to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim, it might be tonight’s game between his San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Or more specifically, his matchup with Chet Holmgren.

Wembanyama and Holmgren have somewhat of a rivalry brewing, Mike Sykes wrote, and it’s very competitive.

“COMPETITIVE. In all caps. The games are fun to watch. They both do things we’ve never seen anyone like them do on an NBA court. …

Chet and the Thunder walked away with two wins in their three matchups. But Wembanyama would usually walk away with a highlight or two that made you go, “Wow. Can’t wait to watch more of this for the next 10 years.”

So, look. Maybe this isn’t a rivalry now. But the more these guys see each other, the closer this matchup becomes the real deal.”

Read more from Sykes on why Wembanyama and Holmgren have all the makings of a great rivalry.

Shootaround

— Nick Nurse is already sick of questions about Paul George’s and Joel Embiid’s health

— Netflix’s Starting 5 Season 2 cast is here and NBA fans will love it

— Rudy Gay officially retired from the NBA

— The sculptor of Dwyane Wade’s statue said nobody could’ve done better

That’s all for today. Enjoy tonight’s NBA action, including an Eastern Conference Finals rematch between the Celtics and Pacers.