Opposing Perspective: Raptors vs Hornets
Samson Folk talks with Brian Geisinger to get the outside perspective on the Toronto Raptors.
Folk: I’m not sure how closely you’ve been watching the Raptors, but the outside perspective is one that people love hearing. What are you noticing about the team north of the border?
Brian Geisinger: I haven’t seen much of them this season, so far, which is one of the reasons I’m eager for the Toronto-Charlotte matchup. That said, I’m fortunate to follow/read some of the outstanding folks who cover the team – Louis Zatzman, Esfandiar, you, I’m sure there are others I’m leaving off, apologies – so I feel like I have a decent sense of the org. Honestly, the Raptors and Hornets seem to be in a similar spot – for a few different reasons. In years past, being compared to the Hornets may elicit a fair amount of existential despair; however, the Hornets have a fresh start and a direction now. There are reasons to buy the intermediate potential of both franchises. Obviously, both teams are projected to finish around the same spot in the Eastern Conference. Also, these strike me as two franchises in the process of rebuilding – who already have some young/promising talent in the pipeline.
Scottie Barnes and LaMelo Ball are both 23-year-old All-Stars. Gradey Dick and Brandon Miller are talented second-year 3-point bombers and off-ball movers, both of whom have a tremendous growth opportunity this season. Ja’Kobe Walter and Tidjane Salaun are rookie wings who fly around the floor and possess shooting upside. Toronto’s roster seemingly differs with a greater financial commitment to a series of solid veterans, but both teams are working to construct an eventual winner around their young centerpiece. They aren’t starting from scratch, which is nice, but having a max or soon-to-be max player on a likely non-playoff team can create some challenges, too.
Folk: Brian, my friend, you’ve just been given the job of head coach in Toronto. Your first task: Concoct a plan to stop LaMelo Ball tonight. How are you going about achieving that?
Brian Geisinger: Well, first off, I’m checking my email account to see when that direct deposit hits. Once that happens, then it’s time to think about LaMelo Ball. When LaMelo is rolling, he’s tough to stop: incredible off-the-dribble shooting range with a quick release, live-ball touch in the midrange, all-court passing and an increased willingness to push the turbo button, play through contact and get downhill. I think you need a blend of drop coverage – with physical point-of-attack defense – and switching. Don’t let him see the same thing every time down the floor. LaMelo can delete your drop coverage with pull-up 3s and his floater/runner game.
If I’m game planning for him, though, I’ll live with him feasting on those tough off-dribble 2s. If he hits a few, I keep the drop coverage but I’m sending early help at the elbows – with the extra defenders playing off some of the shakier perimeter shooters: Cody Martin, Josh Green, Vasa Micic and Salaun. Nick Richards is serviceable center and he can be a pressure point on the rim; unless there’s a runway for him to gather some steam, though, he’s not a terrifying threat as a rim runner, nor does he possess the high-end vertical lob threat ability to take the top off a defense. I’m having my center honor Richards on the roll, but LaMelo is the priority. As soon as LaMelo starts to get too comfortable with this setup or if he starts turning the corner and whipping kick-out/skip passes all over the lot, I’m going to switch and try to keep the ball in front. LaMelo is a great scorer, but he has his issues attacking 1-on-1. Even with a speed advantage against some bigs, LaMelo can struggle with the bump – getting knocked off his axis and settling for tough 2s. That’s why the increased FTA rate and willingness to play through contact this season are encouraging. Still, he has a tendency to lean heavily on his step-back 3-pointer in these switch situations.
Grant Williams provides some frontcourt playmaking and Miles Bridges can give you some drives, but the Hornets don’t have a post threat that can reliably punish mismatches on the low block. Richards can at least do damage on the glass, though. Hopefully, Mark Williams is able to return to the floor, too. Alternatively, there’s a case to be made that you simply blitz LaMelo, especially with Brandon Miller injured, and take the ball out of his hands. Miami tried this at times over the weekend. With Miller on the mend, it’s unclear if Charlotte has a secondary playmaker to slash against the grain in those 4-on-3 situations. Tre Mann has shown flashes. Cody Martin can get downhill. But there’s an unproven aspect. The Hornets, however, can complicate this approach by playing Williams at the 5 and spacing the floor with enough supplemental shooting around the arc to do damage on kick-outs. It’s not a bad option to try on LaMelo, but I’d only resort to it if he’s absolutely breathing fire from deep and you’re willing to roll the dice on Charlotte’s perimeter options not making you pay.
Folk: Is the Tre Mann stuff real? I really like him, and I’ve begun to think about the 3-guard lineups of yore in Charlotte (LaMelo, Graham, Rozier) and how Charlotte has long been a home for small, interesting point guards. So, I ask again, sell the readers and I hard on Tre Mann.
Brian Geisinger: This started over the final two months last season, following the trade deadline: the injection of playmaking and shot-making into the lineup with Mann is crucial. While playing without an injured LaMelo for the final third of last season, the Hornets desperately needed some on-ball juice and Mann – with his shifty handles and the OKC culture of “drive the ball to the rim” hardwired into his head – was a huge boost. That’s continued this season, with Mann working as the team’s primary bench creator. When he’s on the ball, Mann is electric. There are few players who are able to get lower to the court with a live dribble than Mann. He operates with incredible flexibility and shin angles. When he gets to his pull-back jumper – his go-to move since his time in college at Florida – his left knee seems to skim the floor. This allows for some of the most sudden and electric bits of space creation that you’ll see in the NBA. Mann can leverage the threat of this step-back move as a means for getting downhill. It can take time for smaller guard shot-makers to click in the NBA. We saw it in Charlotte with Malik Monk.
When your shot diet relies on mostly tough, off-dribble attempts, and you aren’t quite ready to contribute in other less subtle ways, it can be tough to find a pathway to consistent minutes. In the case of Mann, the ground also shifted under him in OKC – as the franchise leapt from plucky upstart to Western Conference force. His development became less of a priority and ceiling-raiser for the team. Mann does feel a little stuck between archetypes: the microwave bench scorer and the second-unit organizer. He’s not quite able to prop up a second unit on a game-to-game basis, though there are certain nights when he’s able to cook. He’s going to dribble a lot and he’s going to initiate a lot of pick-and-roll action. There’s a terrific opportunity for Mann with the Hornets. He’s been given an important role in a contract year – one that’ll afford him plenty of autonomy and possessions to produce big numbers. I still believe in his creation upside.
Charles Lee is also featuring him in various two/three-guard lineups, alongside LaMelo and Seth Curry. Lineups with LaMelo and Mann have been efficient on offense, while allowing LaMelo to play off the ball. The Hornets are running a lot of ball-screen offense out of their “Horns Out” alignment – with LaMelo beginning the possession without the ball, near the elbow, and flowing into chase pick-and-roll. Beyond the on-ball stuff, which is obviously his ticket to the dance, Mann has staying power because his game is more scalable than it may seem if you’ve only seen him play a few times. He’s a solid spot-up shooter who provides some movement activity when he’s off-ball. Mann relocates without the ball and he’s eager to work as a screener, something Charlotte has tapped into with LaMelo this season and Miller last season. Mann will flow into random guard-guard screens in the half-court offense, or work as an occasional screener when the Hornets get to their double drag pick-and-roll – with LaMelo initiating.
Folk: Is tonight’s game a preview of a play-in matchup?
Brian Geisinger: It definitely could be! In which case, I’ll see you in April so we can analyze the 9-10 play-in matchup in excruciating detail! More likely, though, I think the Hornets fall just slightly out of the play-in scenario. It’s not exactly thrilling stuff to talk about lotto odds and future draft picks, but the Hornets owe a lottery-protected 2025 first round pick to the Spurs. If that doesn’t convey this season, it becomes two future second round picks. The Hornets are a rebuilding team with fresh faces across the franchise – owners, front office and coaching staff. My guess is that they understand the value of holding onto that pick, especially with a talented 2025 draft class hovering on the horizon, and make sure there’s no real chance of losing out on an important team-building asset.
Folk: Who on the Raptors intrigues you? Their rookies are scattered across leaderboards, Gradey has taken a huge points leap, RJ, Scottie & IQ are all considered potential MIP candidates? Who do you like?
Brian Geisinger: Honestly, there’s a lot of stuff I like here. What’s the next progression for Scottie as a bright young star? Gradey Dick is a version of one of my favorite player archetypes, and I’m curious to monitor his usage, along with his flashes of secondary creation. And as someone who likes to nerd out over scheme stuff, I’m looking forward to seeing more of Darko Rajaković’s offense. Beyond that, I live in the Raleigh-Durham area and covered RJ Barrett when he was at Duke. I like to see him do well in the professional ranks now. I’m curious to see how RJ and Scottie work off one another, how those two function as two important creators in a larger playmaking apparatus, and what the on-ball reps look like for RJ when he’s able to initiate.
There’s so much to chew on here from Brian, who was super charitable with this words and thoughts. Hope you enjoyed the read!
Have a blessed day.
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