Overview of Guardians’ Upcoming Offseason Decisions

We will soon be officially in the offseason, folks

On November 22nd, the Guardians will make their non-tender decisions for their 2024-2025 offseason.

No one is sure about what the team’s payroll will be for 2025, and they certainly aren’t getting any clarity from Chris Antonetti quite yet. But, one would assume that even despite an expected decline in money from broadcast rights that a healthy attendance bump in 2024 and getting six home playoff games will enable at least a modest payroll increase in an attempt to fortify a roster that made the American League Championship series. Personally, I think the Guardians should attempt to put their payroll as at least the top in the American League Central which probably would put them at $140 million, but I will not spend any time or energy expecting that to be the case.

For 2025, The Guardians have guaranteed contracts with Emmanuel Clase, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez, Trevor Stephan and Myles Straw - $43.2 million

They will pay $2 million to buy out Jean Segura.

They will have arbitration contracts for somewhere around $31 million with Steven Kwan, Ben Lively, Triston McKenzie, Eli Morgan, Josh Naylor, and Lane Thomas.

I do not believe they will bring back the injured and ineffective James Karinchak, the ineffective Nick Sandlin whom I believe they will trade, or Sam Hentges who will sadly miss the entire 2025 season, but these players are also due about $5 million.

For the time being, we will add 16 more players to the 26-man at league minimum, some as placeholders, which is about 750k, equaling another 12M, ending with an active roster payroll of somewhere around $88 million.

This SHOULD give the Guardians’ the ability to address their biggest offseason need: pursuing some sensible additions to their starting pitching in free agency where the market should allow for them to be players given the amount of folks available. Excluding the most expensive options and the oldest options, here’s a preliminary list, about which we will provide more analysis in the near future:

On the higher end, Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Wacha, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler and Nick Pivetta.

In the middle tier, Sean Manaea, Matthew Boyd, Trevor Williams, Luis Severino, and Alex Cobb.

In the lower tier, Kyle Gibson, Nick Martinez, Andrew Heaney, Alex Wood, John Means and Spencer Turnbull.

Additionally, there may be a few starting pitchers available in trades if the Guardians are interested in looking that direction, including Kevin Gausman or Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays, Jameson Taillon of the Cubs, Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning or Tyler Anderson of the Angels, or German Marquez of the Rockies. It’s always difficult to say exactly who will be on the market and exactly what those respective teams will be looking for in a return, especially given the scarcity of viable starting pitchers in MLB. But, those are some names to ponder.

The Guardians need a backup catcher to Bo Naylor and I would bet on a return engagement with Austin Hedges. I think the team will see if players like Cooper Ingle, Jacob Cozart and Bryan Lavastida can show enough to bring them up as a third catcher late in the year if David Fry ends up getting Tommy John Surgery. If Fry’s elbow doesn’t require surgery, his position as a swing-man could help immensely in limiting Hedges’ plate appearances. Hedges returning is great; Hedges making a playoff roster should the Guardians qualify for one in 2025 is inexecusable.

The Guardians also have a need to find another middle-of-the-order bat to play right-field. While I would love to see the Guardians get aggressive and find a way to land the Athletics’ Brent Rooker (he can play right field for me with that bat) and the Rays’ Brandon Lowe, moving Gimenez to short and Rocchio to utility infielder, I find these kind of moves unlikely. Whatever prospect gunpowder the team has will be kept dry for an attempt to attack their starting pitching needs, in my opinion. The team can surprise me if they want and sign a Michael Conforto, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Max Kepler, or Tyler O’Neill to play right-field here but I highly doubt they will spend money in those areas, choosing rather to make a July 2025 trade if needed to upgrade if internal options fail. I suspect they will rely on Chase DeLauter, Juan Brito (who saw 19 starts in right-field in 2024), C.J. Kayfus, Johnathan Rodriguez, and Jhonkensy Noel to win the position and focus available funds on starting pitching and extensions for players like Steven Kwan, Tanner Bibee and Bo Naylor (yes, I am still firmly on the Bo is the Catcher of the Future train). They could also try Angel Martinez in center again and move Lane Thomas to right-field (still need a strong left-handed outfield bat in this scenario).

Personally, I love the groundball rates for Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino with our infield defense, so I think those are top free agent options who should be able to be had for something not out of the range of payroll possibility for Cleveland. If the Guardians could sign one of those two pitchers AND retain Shane Bieber, the offseason gets an automatic A+ from me. However, I suspect Bieber finds his way to one of his hometown California teams (Dodgers, Angels or Padres), and the Guardians end up snagging Boyd, Cobb, Martinez, Trevor Williams or Heaney on a one-two year deal in mid-January. They will then rely on the mix of Joey Cantillo, McKenzie, Lively, Doug Nikhazy and Ryan Webb (perhaps combined with a reliever like Cade Smith or Pedro Avila getting a chance to stretch out as a starter??) to fill out their rotation behind that free agent and Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams for the beginning of 2025.

Finally, also in mid-November, the Guardians will need to make decisions about their Rule-5 eligible players. Some names of note: pitchers Franco Aleman, Tanner Burns, Aaron Davenport, Nic Enright, Doug Nikhazy, Tommy Mace, Ryan Webb, infielder Milan Tolentino, and outfielders Petey Halpin, Wuilfredo Antunez and Esteban Gonzalez. I think the players most sure to be protected are Nikhazy and Aleman. Next up for me would be Webb, Davenport, Enright and Halpin. I think Webb probably joins Nikhazy and Aleman on the 40-man, but I think the others will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft in early December. I hope many make it through, including Tommy Mace whose groundball skills make him a particular favorite of mine.

I don’t think this offseason will be particularly active for the Guardians (though it SHOULD be), but I do think we will see some movement. I do think there might be potential for the Guardians to move an elite reliever for the return of a major league piece and minor league pitcher they really like, but, again, it’s difficult to forecast that specifically.

The Guardians showed they are on the brink of being a World Series team; it’s time for ownership and the front office to push them over that brink by bringing in a handful of proven major league pieces to shore up this roster for another run. We will see if that’s what they do or not.