Why the Arab Gulf States Won’t Help Israel

Before Israel struck Iran last weekend in response to Iran’s October 1 missile barrage, the Islamic Republic turned to a group of unlikely partners to reduce the scope of an Israeli attack: Sunni Gulf Arab states. Iran threatened U.S. Gulf partners and Jordan that facilitating Israel’s retaliation against the Islamic Republic would be an act of war, hoping that they would use their influence in Washington to mitigate an Israeli response. And it worked. Not only did Israel limit the scope of its weekend attack on Iran, but it avoided using Gulf or Jordanian airspace at their request. The fact that Iran’s Gulf neighbors lobbied the Biden administration and Congress to prevent a large-scale Israeli attack on Iranian military, nuclear, or oil infrastructure is a direct result of America’s failure to protect its Arab partners.

Gulf fear of Iranian reprisals for helping the United States and Israel is not new in the aftermath of October 7. Following attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, the UAE began “increasingly restricting” the United States from using its bases in the Emirates to launch strikes on Iranian proxies, including ones that have previously attacked the UAE. After Iran’s April ballistic missile attack on Israel, Middle East Eye reported that Gulf nations warned against using U.S. bases in their countries to launch strikes on Iran and even moved to “prevent U.S. warplanes from flying over their airspace,” despite the over 6,000 U.S. troops stationed in the UAE and Saudi Arabia alone. Now, Gulf countries are once again telling Washington not to use its bases in their countries for offensive action against Iran.

America’s partners in the Gulf have always had to balance their need for U.S. defense support with the external and domestic threats prompted by their pro-American alignment. In 2003, U.S. Central Command moved its regional air operations from Saudi Arabia to Qatar at Riyadh’s request because of domestic backlash over the Iraq War. Now, following Israel’s U.S.-approved retaliatory strike on Iran, the Saudi Foreign Ministry condemned the attack as a “violation of [Iranian] sovereignty.”

On the flip side, the United States has proven a reliable ally in facing the Islamic State and Al Qaeda. Still, it has routinely failed to prevent and respond to Iranian aggression against its putative Gulf allies. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain scarred by the Trump administration’s failure to respond to significant attacks from Iran and its proxies. And even before October 7, the UAE was reprimanding the Biden administration for not forcefully responding to Iranian aggression in the Strait of Hormuz despite a recently signed Defense Cooperation Agreement.

As a direct result of American inaction, Saudi and Emirati leaders began looking elsewhere for their security, including by directly appealing to Iran. After holding joint air force drills last year, the UAE and China recently announced a willingness to increase security cooperation. Shortly after a trip by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, Iran and Saudi Arabia normalized relations in a Beijing-brokered deal that included an “affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states”—presumably meaning they promise not to bomb each other. And now, both are working hard to assure Iran of their neutrality in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Is China going to defend the Gulf against Iranian threats? No. Is Iran going to hesitate to attack Saudi Arabia via the Houthis or Shi’ite proxies within Iran? Also no. Nor are Gulf leaders so naïve as to believe their hedging will ultimately protect them. But they have few options, and neither the UAE, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan trust the United States to defend them or appropriately respond to Iranian attacks.

It’s time Washington woke up to the reality of its relationship with the Gulf. In 2022, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia Robert Jordan called the U.S.-Saudi relationship “a slow-moving train wreck.” Two years later, he’s still right. American partners in the Middle East should have been confident enough in their security to laugh at Iranian threats of retaliation. Instead, they actively lobbied Washington on behalf of the Iranian regime and hamstrung U.S. military options against a shared adversary.

The Gulf’s willingness to carry Tehran’s water is a direct product of Washington’s failed leadership and alliance management. Multiple administrations have let down countries critical to maintaining some sort of balance of power in the Middle East, making the job of shoring up American commitments to Saudi, Emirati, and Jordanian security all the more difficult. Mutual defense agreements—like the one floated with Saudi Arabia—are a good start to proving the United States will respond forcibly to threats against our Arab partners. But Washington has an opportunity now, following unprovoked attacks by a non-nuclear Iran, to prove that it is serious about responding to Iranian aggression. It would be a foolish opportunity to waste.

Ben Lefkowitz is a graduate student at Georgetown’s Security Studies Program.

Image: Shutterstock.com.