Bulgaria: Will Borisov Be Able To Form A Government? – Analysis

By Ivan Bedrov

(RFE/RL) -- Bulgaria is back in very familiar territory. The October 27 parliamentary elections gave former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's center-right GERB party the most votes, but not enough to form a government on its own.

Borisov will certainly try. But despite winning five out of seven parliamentary elections since 2021, GERB has failed to form a coalition.

Will Borisov Be Able To Form A Government?

To form a governing coalition, Borisov -- Bulgaria's most notable and powerful politician, who has been prime minister three times since 2009 -- needs the support of at least half the deputies in the National Assembly, the country's 240-seat unicameral parliament.

Looking at the breakdown of votes in the increasingly fragmented parliament, three or four parties will be needed to form a majority.

So far, Borisov has only ruled out working with the far-right, pro-Kremlin Revival party, which came in third with 13 percent of the vote.

Speaking on election night, Borisov said: "We will govern with anyone who supports our program."

Enter Delyan Peevski...

Much of it comes down to one man: Delyan Peevski, a controversial media tycoon with incredible sway over public opinion. He has been accused of corruption and influence peddling and sanctioned by the United States and Britain for corruption.

And most Bulgarian politicians would probably agree that Peevski is the person most responsible for Bulgaria's ongoing political crisis.

In a move that would likely end the political impasse, Borisov has said he would work with the second-place pro-Western reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which polled 14 percent. However, PP-DB has insisted that it will only work with GERB if Peevski has no influence on the future administration.

Borisov has been repeatedly accused of having close ties to Peevski, who for many Bulgarians is emblematic of the country's corruption and organized crime.

It's also unlikely that Borisov will be able to scrape together enough seats from the smaller parties in parliament, many of whom also refuse to be in bed with Peevski.

So, essentially, it comes down to Borisov having to choose between the PP-DB or Peevski. After the last elections in June, GERB and Peevski's previous party could have formed a government with the support of a few independent lawmakers, but Borisov refused to make a deal.

Why Can't Borisov Cut Ties With Peevski?

This is the $1 million question in Bulgaria, and no one really knows the answer.

PP-DB has said that Peevski de facto owns GERB through mutual business concerns.

Plus, Peevski is widely thought to control Bulgaria's powerful Prosecutor-General's Office, which oversees both criminal investigations and prosecutorial decisions.

In the past, investigations against Borisov have been closed and the former prime minister has received immunity from prosecution.

What Are The Consequences Of This Continuing Impasse?

Bulgaria is stagnating. Money from the European Union has almost dried up, and it will stay that way until the country carries out EU-mandated reforms and anti-corruption measures. Not to mention that without a functioning administration, the EU doesn't really have anyone to work with.

Efforts to push reforms and anti-corruption measures, notably by PP-DB, have continually hit a brick wall.

With the country in limbo, progress has stalled on Bulgaria adopting the euro and fully joining the EU's borderless Schengen zone.

Are Bulgarians Losing Their Faith In The Democratic Process?

While public faith in the electoral process is certainly not high, partial results have shown that the turnout for these elections might be slightly higher than the 34 percent of voters who voted in June.

There were fears before the vote that widespread disillusionment with mainstream parties could result in the rise of smaller extreme parties such as Revival. However, the latest elections don't show any clear evidence of that.

While fringe parties have increased their vote share, so, too, have the major parties.

Could This Election Affect Bulgaria's International Course?

While there are four pro-Russia parties in parliament, they have a smaller number of deputies than the pro-Western parties.

Moreover, the fact that the pro-Western GERB and PP-DB parties came first and second is an indication that support for Bulgaria's EU and NATO membership remains strong.

And while PP-DB's support and vote-share isn't huge, the party's constant pressure for reform is a defining feature of Bulgaria's political landscape.

• Ivan Bedrov is the director of RFE/RL's Bulgarian Service.