A hint in 3rd-quarter earnings calls suggests S&P 500 corporate profits are about to boom, Bank of America says
Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BI
- Bank of America says a jump in mentions of "bottom" in earnings calls is a positive sign.
- Mentions of "weak demand" also fell to a two-year low.
- "We believe the election could be a clearing event for companies to unleash capex, especially with lower rates."
Executives have been dropping hints in third-quarter earnings calls that suggest corporate profits will surge in 2025, according to Bank of America.
Strategist Savita Subramanian highlighted in a Monday note that with more than one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported results, mentions of the word "bottom" on earnings calls have surged.
"Companies have been operating in a weak demand environment for almost two years now due to the weakness in goods/manufacturing. But we see signs that the worst may be behind us," Subramanian said.
Bank of America scanned the transcripts of third-quarter earnings calls and observed a 56% year-over-year increase in the word "bottom" being mentioned.
On top of that, mentions of "weak demand" have dropped to two-year lows, a good sign for cyclical companies in the manufacturing economy.
"Historically, a jump in 'bottom' mentions has often marked an inflection in EPS," Subramanian said.
Notable surges in the word "bottom" being mentioned on earnings calls in 2009 and 2020 were soon after marked by a more than 75% year-over-year surge in S&P 500 quarterly earnings per share, according to the note.
Bank of America
These signals suggest to Subramanian that manufacturing activity will pick up in the first half of next year as the Fed is likely to continue lowering interest rates and uncertainty about the Presidential election passes.
Subramanian said that the word "election" being mentioned on earnings calls has soared 62% compared to the 2020 election cycle, suggesting "a potential 'wait-and-see' investment approach given the uncertainty."
"Interestingly, history suggests that investment activity typically accelerates post-election. We believe the election could be a clearing event for companies to unleash capex, especially with lower rates," Subramanian said.