Warriors’ room for error grows smaller with Steph Curry operating in a small room

The spacing problem, exacerbated by the reemergence of Curry’s ankle problem.

Injuries can often be freak occurrences with no discernible cause or reason. They can happen out of the blue as often as they happen because of preceding causes or factors. For Stephen Curry — who suffered two left ankle rolls in the Golden State Warriors’ 112-104 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers — the second gnarlier roll may have definitely been a result of trying out an ankle that was already compromised from the first one.

The first one seemingly happened out of the blue. An attempt to plant his left foot resulted in a moment of traction overload, which resulted in a slight ankle bend and a limping Curry, who was set to sub out anyway according to his typical minutes pattern. That one did not have a preceding cause or lead up — at least, not in the obvious sense.

There’s no question that Curry is the only bona fide shot creator and scorer on the team — in sharp contrast to their opponents in the Clippers, who were boosted by Norman Powell’s microwave scoring (20 points on 8-of-15 shooting, one night after torching the Denver Nuggets with 37 points on 14-of-21 shooting) and an exceptional performance by Ivica Zubac (23 points and 18 rebounds) that acted as much-needed sources of supplementary scoring for James Harden, who scored 23 points but on an inefficient scoring clip (6-of-19 from the field, 2-of-12 on threes).

While it seemed like the first two games were mounting evidence of Curry having the requisite scoring support he’ll need for this season, it was also against two rebuilding teams who do not possess the same kind of player quality on the roster. Buddy Hield scored a combined 49 points on 12-of-16 shooting from beyond the arc in the first two games — he crashed back to earth against the Clippers with 8 points on 3-of-14 shooting from the field and only a single three-point make out of nine attempts.

There is no doubt that Hield can be a source of red-hot scoring if he manages to establish a rhythm from the start, which was what happened against the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz. However, the Clippers under Ty Lue were much more cognizant of the dangers of a Hield explosion — and took steps to account for it, especially with Hield’s minutes being separated from Curry’s in that crucial stretch starting from around the three minute mark of the first quarter (where Curry usually subs out) up till around the eight minute mark of the second quarter (where Curry subs back in).

With Hield as the only potential source of scoring, watch how the Clippers manage to bottle him up below:

A conventional coverage for a movement shooter such as Hield would be to “top lock” or deny his path toward the away screen and force him toward the baseline. But Amir Coffey instead elects to lock and trail — i.e., stay close behind, follow Hield’s path around the screen, and get in front of him to take away an open look, with Coffey’s big-man partner (Kai Jones) playing drop coverage. That may seem counterintuitive in theory, but Coffey pulls it off successfully above. He forces Hield inside and garners the stop with help from Jones. Past tracking data may have informed Coffey, Jones, and the Clippers’ decision behind employing this coverage against Hield: last season with the Indiana Pacers and the Philadelphia 76ers, Hield was 13-of-41 (31.7%) on threes around an off-ball screen coming to his left, per Synergy tracking.

It also doesn’t help that Hield is a below-average operator as a pick-and-roll ball handler: 0.775 points per possession on pick-and-rolls with the Pacers and Sixers last season, albeit on a low number of possessions (167). But there’s a good reason behind that number being low. Asking Hield to be the pick-and-roll ball handler at any given moment isn’t a mere saunter out of his preferred role — it’s a huge step out of his comfort zone, especially when there’s a huge gap in defensive quality between their first two opponents and the Clippers (as evidenced by them sending two to the ball against Hield below and intercepting the expected pass to the short roll — ironically, something Hield himself pulled off against the Blazers):

As such, Hield’s below-average effectiveness as a pick-and-roll ball handler demands that he must be somewhat effective as an off-ball mover darting around screens. To Steve Kerr’s credit, he has been trying to scheme Hield into a more effective playmaker around screens while also minimizing the need for him to dribble and pound the ball.

When Kerr calls for “Thumb Chin” (out of their “Thumb” series of sets which was brought over by Terry Stotts), it’s to get Hield into empty-corner action with Kevon Looney and create much needed offense without their main source of offensive creation:

Besides the possibility that the Clippers’ coverages on Hield may have been dictated by tracking data, Hield had plenty of other opportunities and looks where he plainly missed shots, which does happen. For him, it wasn’t a matter of “if,” but “when.” It just so happened that the answer to “when” was in the third game of the season against the Clippers, which was much sooner than the Warriors would’ve preferred.

What the Warriors also would’ve preferred was a win to continue their momentum — or at the very least, come out of the game with a clean bill of health. Alas, Curry’s ankle roll creates the possibility that they may not have their superstar for a couple of games. But they also didn’t help themselves with regard to creating the requisite space for Curry to operate with breathing room.

Much has been opined about the current starting lineup of Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. After three games, this five-man group has been outscored by a total of two points — which isn’t good considering that it has seen the highest number of minutes, but not as bad as some people might’ve thought.

However, the problem of spacing still persists. The results weren’t great in the first halves of their first two games against inferior opposition; against the Clippers, a team more equipped to expose the warts, the difficulty came in the form of Curry having to operate in a figurative phonebooth.

Watch Curry try to drive inside in this possession — before he sees a forest of limbs standing in his way:

Taking a closer look, peep at how many bodies are committed to shrinking the paint against Curry’s drive:

Derrick Jones Jr. and Zubac overwhelm Curry with their length, while Terance Mann is fully committed to helping off of Green to tag Jackson-Davis. Harden is paying zero attention to Wiggins (lifting up to make any potential close out harder), but Curry has no vision behind him. Kuminga stays put at the dunker spot, which cramps space even further with Powell staying put with him. Curry is forced to pass out of a dire situation, but he does so with no viable passing lane. As such, he commits one of his six turnovers, and one of 21 the Warriors coughed up.

Curry deserves his fair share of the blame for the turnovers and — for lack of a better term — boneheaded decision making. But he also doesn’t have to work as hard (and therefore, decrease his risk of injury) to create offense if he has viable options next to him on the court. Wiggins was a shining beacon and was promising as a second option against the Clippers: 29 points on 11-of-15 shooting from the field, 5-of-8 on threes, and 88.8% True Shooting. But that may look different in scenarios where Curry isn’t there to provide offensive relief and the nature of Wiggins’ usage changes, even if he did do some of his damage with Curry not available on the floor. It’s also valid to be wary of Wiggins’ consistency based on his last two seasons.

This micro-predicament has turned into a macro problem for Steve Kerr and his coaching staff, who has been juggling a 12-man rotation and hasn’t shown any indication of trimming it down to a more manageable number. With Curry’s ankle sprain adding injury to insult, things won’t get any easier, with the allowable space for trial-and-error growing smaller and smaller — as small as the space that Curry is seeing with the current starting group.