Georgia Pivoting Toward Russia? Difficult Days Ahead – Analysis
This Saturday, October 26, citizens of the Republic of Georgia in the South Caucasus began voting in parliamentary elections that will determine the future of their country. Georgia's political arena is divided between a pro-European opposition and a ruling party accused of pro-Russian authoritarianism.
Polling stations opened at around 8 a.m. local time. The first exit polls will be conducted after they close at 8 p.m. Both the government and the opposition describe today's vote as a choice of destiny - a choice between war and peace, between the European Union and Russia. But many Georgians are more worried about their economic situation than about joining the European Union.
On October 24, a politician from the opposition party Droa ("It's Time!") posted a message on X saying: "Two days and two hours until Georgia is free! There is great hope among civil society and the liberal opposition that the parliamentary elections will bring an end to the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has been in power since 2012.
They point to the number of participants in anti-government protests. On October 20, tens of thousands took part in a demonstration calling for Georgia to join the EU. Opinion polls have shown that support for EU membership has been stable at 80 percent for many years.
The liberal opposition characterizes the parliamentary vote as a choice between the EU and Georgia's northern neighbor, Russia, to which the ruling party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili is loyal. He made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, and since coming to power in 2012, the Georgian Dream party has gradually shifted to a more pro-Russian position, although it still officially supports Georgia's membership in the European Union.
The Georgian Dream-dominated legislature has passed a new anti-democratic law requiring groups that receive 20% or more of their funding from abroad to register as "agents of foreign influence". This Putinesque law is reminiscent of what is happening in Russia and, more broadly, the Soviet Union. The government passed a massive anti-LGBTQ+ law earlier this month, banning same-sex marriage, same-sex adoption, and changing one's gender on identity documents.
Ivanishvili claims that only his party can keep the peace, and accuses the West of trying to provoke Georgia into conflict with Russia. He is tapping into the deep fears of the population. His goal: a constitutional two-thirds majority in parliament for the Georgian Dream.
Senior party members warn that the opposition, backed by the West, is trying to stage a coup. The opposition fears vote rigging and complains of pressure on voters critical of the government and attacks on its political leaders.
High Dissatisfaction with All Parties
The true mood of the population is unclear. Both pro-government and opposition media have published polls showing majorities in favor of their respective parties. The respected Caucasus Research Resource Center (CRRC) published data on Georgian views a year ago. At that time, 62% said that none of the parties represented their interests. 52% felt that members of parliament did not represent their interests.
A pre-election survey by the McCain Institute, named after the late U.S. Senator John McCain, concluded that the ruling party could count on a "healthy majority. The problem is that the liberal parties have not united as a solid bloc. They are generally weak in the polls and even fear for their survival after the election.
The confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition is increasingly overshadowing the real needs of the people. For years, concerns about earning a decent living and improving living conditions have been at the forefront of public opinion polls. The increasing frequency of strikes reflects this. Last week, residents of the village of Shukruti, some 300 km from Tbilisi, ended weeks of protests and hunger strikes in the capital - with no tangible results. They had been protesting the destruction of their village by mining activities and the non-payment of their salaries. A week before the parliamentary elections, the ruling party finally agreed to mediate with the mining company, but they were unable to reach an agreement. The villagers left Tbilisi in frustration. No opposition party has yet been able to translate popular concerns into a platform that the majority of the population, especially the conservative rural population, can support.
The opposition has had difficulty uniting its forces, in part because the EU has made it clear that the current ruling party and its authoritarian approach will not allow the hoped-for start of accession negotiations. With a clear signal from the EU for a speedy accession process, voters would have a clear choice: vote for or against EU membership. The reluctance of many EU politicians to make such a clear statement has led people to openly question the start of accession negotiations.
In July, a number of employees of Swedish casino operator Evolution Georgia went on strike to demand better working conditions and to protest the sexist attitudes of the company's management. A Facebook post by the Swedish embassy in Georgia praising the company for its excellent working conditions sparked outrage among Georgian workers. Strikes are also common at other European companies in the service sector. For example, a strike over low wages and poor working conditions hit Bolt, an Estonian company that provides ride-hailing, micromobility rental, food and grocery delivery, and car-sharing services.
For the agricultural sector, the third most important in the Georgian economy, the EU is an extremely difficult market to penetrate and establish. Even the world-renowned producers of Georgian wine struggle in the highly competitive European market. It is easier - and with lower quality requirements - to sell wine to China and Russia.
Therefore, the ruling party's warnings that the pro-European parties could impose sanctions on Russia, which remains an important market for many Georgian companies, fall on fertile ground, even though these parties did not make such campaign promises.
Given the high level of dissatisfaction with all parties and the indecisiveness of voters, the outcome of the election appears to be open. However, even before the polls opened, both the ruling party and the liberal opposition, including President Salome Zurabishvili, predicted defeat for their respective opponents and refused to accept the results.
Foreign Influence
The government has indicated that it will respond to any protests with force. Ivanishvili has even announced legal action against former President Mikheil Saakashvili's party, the United National Movement (UNM, now led by Tina Bokuchava), which he claims has committed numerous crimes against the Georgian state and people. Ivanishvili has consistently claimed that "external forces" control the UNM, making its continued participation in Georgian political life unacceptable. The October 26 elections were to serve as a kind of "Nuremberg political trial" for the UNM.
The days and possibly weeks following the election are expected to be tumultuous, creating an environment conducive to foreign influence and potential intervention. The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, has repeatedly commented on the upcoming elections in Georgia. He has accused the United States of trying to deny the Georgian Dream another term in office. In August, he said that Russia would prevent another "color revolution," a type of nonviolent protest aimed at changing government and society that has taken place in some post-Soviet states. The U.S. State Department, of course, categorically denied the accusation.
With Russia looming large in the background, it is certain that Putin will do everything in his power to prevent peaceful protests from bringing about a change of government, as was the case in Armenia in 2018. Georgian opposition politicians have also expressed concern about a scenario similar to the fraudulent August 9 presidential election in Belarus, where the Lukashenka regime repressed tens of thousands of Belarusians.