Is Middle Eastern escalation inevitable?
AFTER several weeks of preparations, Israel carried out its promised attack on Iran in the small hours of Saturday but the scale and scope of the air/missile strikes appeared limited. It also declared it had completed its operations and warned Iran against retaliating.
What next? This must be the question on many minds, as multiple Iranian sources warned Israel of retaliation for Saturday’s attacks. In the past, Iran has also warned that American acolytes in the region, particularly those hosting US bases, may also be targeted in any retaliation.
Many media organisations wish to credit the US with exerting a moderating influence on Israel and persuading it not to target Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. In the event, Israeli sources claimed hitting Iranian missile manufacturing and launch sites.
Saturday’s attacks were anticipated after Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel on Oct 1 for the attack on its embassy in the Syrian capital, killing many IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) high officials, and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while he was in the capital to attend the inauguration of the new president.
If Iran’s threats are more than mere brave words, we stand poised for a mega disaster.
Iran’s retaliation came via drones, ballistic and cruise missile waves that targeted Israel’s military and intelligence sites such as an air force base and the headquarters of the external security service Mossad. Iranian sources claimed this attack was limited in scope and one purpose was to assess the chinks in Israel’s famed ‘Iron Dome’ air defence.
There can be no denying Israel’s superior West-funded and supplied state-of-the-art weaponry including aerial assets, nor its immense intelligence gathering and operational capacity. But the mere fact that within days of the Iran missile attack, the US started deploying its THAAD anti-missile batteries and their American crews to Israel pointed to the deficiencies in Israel’s mythical anti-missile and air defence.
Although the US was quick to claim its forces played no part in the Israeli attacks on Iran this weekend, for many weeks it has been bolstering its military presence in the Gulf with the solitary purpose of threatening Iran with aircraft carrier battle-groups deployed in the region.
Just the other day, the US Centcom handle on X announced that USAF F-16s from the 480th squadron base at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany arrived at the US Central Command area of responsibility.
When I first read that tweet, I was perplexed. This was because the US has more modern and superior warplanes on its aircraft carriers and operational bases in the region, in addition to long-range bombers operating from bases further afield. The significance of the F-16 deployment dawned on me after little open source research online.
The 480th squadron based in Germany called the ‘Warhawks’ is dedicated to SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence) missions through electronic warfare such as jamming the radar of surface-to-air missiles and can also be used to mark (for next wave attacks), attack and destroy air defence missile sites.
If the US did help in neutralising Iranian missile batteries while Israeli jets attacked Iran targets or while they refuelled over possibly one of Iran’s neighbours’ airspace, then its claim it did not participate in the attacks would be incorrect. Rest assured, it won’t be many weeks before a trickle of information starts to appear that either confirms or contradicts this view.
However, there are many news stories — in the Western media in particular — that the US and some of Iran’s Gulf neighbours used their influence in order to impress upon Israel the need to restrict the scope and scale of its attacks on Iran as any further expansion of the conflict would threaten to suck them in.
If these news stories are credible, it is astonishing that these powers have done nothing and not used their leverage to stop the ongoing pogrom in Gaza and the continued expansion of settlements and the violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
What the world is witnessing in Gaza is unspeakable. The bizarre claim of an occupation force being the ‘most moral military in the world’ is being shredded live on social media by its own atrocities and conduct as whatever remains of hospitals or shelters for the Palestinians are being destroyed and piles of bodies of unarmed civilians, including children and babies, are being left in the rubble.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University, who served in the IRGC in his teen years, and is one of the people who often articulates the Iranian government’s position, has said Iran’s commitment to the liberation of Palestine is as firm as ever. He tweeted that Iran will retaliate and that the scale of its retaliation could be unprecedented in the devastation it causes.
Seeing the Palestinians being murdered in their homes and streets in the tens of thousands has left many in the world seething. Regardless of their compromised governments’ position, they want an end to the mind-numbing violence in Gaza. They’d give anything to see it stop.
If Iran’s threats are more than mere brave words, the region and the wider world stand poised for a mega disaster, as any Iranian action could now suck in the US too — and who knows how such an escalation will damage the regional oil infrastructure?
Suddenly, a conflict that is tragic and soul-destroying but at a distance, will knock on the door of everyone in the world. Without doubt, such an escalation will have a huge impact on the world economy and pose more questions than it will answer.
It is clear from their policy stands/decisions so far that those powers that can make a difference can’t be bothered; to them, it appears, the Palestinians are the children of a lesser God. Perhaps, the threat to their own economic well-being may motivate them to exert influence to end the madness of a state hell-bent on genocide.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, October 27th, 2024