Tropical Storm Leon maintains strength over Philippine Sea

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Leon (Kong-rey) maintained its strength over the Philippine Sea before dawn on Sunday, October 27.

Leon still has maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin issued at 5 am on Sunday. Its gustiness is up to 80 km/h.

The tropical storm was last spotted 1,195 kilometers east of Central Luzon at 4 am, moving west at a slightly slower 20 km/h from the previous 25 km/h.

Leon is projected keep moving west until early Monday morning, October 28, before turning west northwest from Monday morning to early Tuesday morning, October 29. Then it could turn northwest to north northwest and make landfall in the Ryukyu Islands in Okinawa, Japan, early Friday morning, November 1.

That means Leon is likely to stay far from Philippine landmass, although its track may still shift further westward within the cone of probability or cone of uncertainty shown in the image below. A westward shift would bring it nearer the country.

In terms of intensity, Leon is seen to gradually strengthen within 24 hours and become a severe tropical storm by early Monday morning.

Then “a period of rapid intensification is likely to happen” from Monday to Wednesday, October 30, with Leon possibly intensifying into a typhoon on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning.

PAGASA said Leon is unlikely to trigger heavy rain in the country, but its outer rainbands might affect extreme Northern Luzon “depending on how close it will be” as it recurves over the Philippine Sea toward Japan.

It could also “continue to influence the southwesterly windflow” initially triggered by Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (Trami). On Sunday, the southwesterly windflow will cause scattered rain and thunderstorms in Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.

Leon could bring winds to some areas, too. Signal No. 1 may be raised for parts of Cagayan Valley and the northeastern part of Bicol by Sunday evening, to give these areas 36 hours to prepare for strong winds.

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Leon could be Signal No. 2, “depending on how much the forecast track will shift westward,” PAGASA said.

The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical storm will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:

Sunday, October 27

• Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands

Monday, October 28

• Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias Island and Ticao Island, northern part of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, southern part of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, southern part of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Sarangani, southern part of Davao del Sur, southern part of Davao Oriental

Tuesday, October 29

• Batangas, northern part of Oriental Mindoro, northern part of Camarines Norte, northern part of Camarines Sur, northern part of Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias Island and Ticao Island, northern part of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, southern part of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, southern part of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte

In the next 24 hours, up to moderate seas are expected in these coastal waters:

• Western seaboard of Luzon – waves up to 3 meters high
• Northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; northeastern seaboard of Northern Samar; northeastern seaboard of Eastern Samar – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboards of Luzon; seaboards of Visayas; eastern and southern seaboards of Mindanao – waves up to 2 meters high

Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

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Meanwhile, Kristine left the Tropical Cyclone Information Domain (TCID), “the largest and the outermost monitoring domain of PAGASA,” at 2 am on Sunday.

That means the weather bureau will no longer be providing information on Kristine, unless it returns to the TCID.

PAGASA has said that Kristine could make a U-turn and possibly reenter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the next few days.

Kristine and Leon are the country’s 11th and 12th tropical cyclones for 2024, respectively. They are also the first and second tropical cyclones for October. – Rappler.com