Tropical Storm Leon now inside PAR

MANILA, Philippines – The tropical storm with the international name Kong-rey entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 7:30 pm on Saturday, October 26.

It was given the local name Leon, as the country’s 12th tropical cyclone for 2024.

It is also the second tropical cyclone for October, entering PAR just a day after the exit of the deadly and destructive Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (Trami).

In its first bulletin on Leon issued at 11 pm on Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the tropical storm was located 1,355 kilometers east of Central Luzon. It is moving west at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

Leon is projected to keep moving west to west northwest until Monday evening, October 28, before turning northwest to north. This means it is likely to stay far from Philippine landmass, although its track may still shift within the cone of probability or cone of uncertainty shown in the image below.

Leon continued to have maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h on Saturday evening.

But it could intensify into a severe tropical storm on Sunday evening, October 27, or early Monday morning, then into a typhoon on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning, October 29.

PAGASA said Leon is unlikely to trigger heavy rain in the country, but its outer rainbands might affect extreme Northern Luzon “depending on how close it will be during its recurvature over the Philippine Sea.”

It could also “continue to influence the southwesterly windflow” initially triggered by Kristine. The southwesterly windflow is seen to bring rain to the western part of Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao in the coming days.

Winds from Leon could also affect some areas in Luzon. Signal No. 1 may be raised for parts of Cagayan Valley and the northeastern part of Bicol by Sunday afternoon or evening, to give these areas 36 hours to prepare for strong winds.

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Leon could be Signal No. 2.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical storm will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:

Sunday, October 27

• Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands

Monday, October 28

• Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias Island and Ticao Island, northern part of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, southern part of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, southern part of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Sarangani, southern part of Davao del Sur, southern part of Davao Oriental

Tuesday, October 29

• Batangas, northern part of Oriental Mindoro, northern part of Camarines Norte, northern part of Camarines Sur, northern part of Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias Island and Ticao Island, northern part of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, southern part of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, southern part of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte

In the next 24 hours, up to moderate seas are expected in these coastal waters:

• Seaboard of Batanes, seaboard of northern Palawan including Calamian Islands, seaboard of Lubang Islands – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Seaboards of Ilocos Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Zambales, Bataan, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands; western seaboard of Batangas; northern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro; northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; western seaboard of central and southern Palawan; remaining seaboards of Occidental Mindoro – waves up to 2 meters high

Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Eventually, coastal waters could become moderate to rough in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of the Visayas.

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Meanwhile, Kristine was located 800 kilometers west of Northern Luzon as of 10 pm on Saturday, moving west outside PAR at 15 km/h.

It briefly became a typhoon in the afternoon — with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h — but was downgraded back to severe tropical storm status. Its maximum sustained winds are currently at 100 km/h, with gustiness of up to 125 km/h.

Kristine is no longer directly affecting the country, but it could make a U-turn and possibly reenter PAR next week, on Thursday, October 31.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Grace Castañeda said Kristine is unlikely to make landfall in the Philippines again, but its outer rainbands may affect the western portions of Southern Luzon and the Visayas.

Castañeda added that the chances of Kristine and Leon interacting are slim. – Rappler.com