UFC 308 Gambling Preview: Will Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway slug it out for an early finish?

UFC 308 is finally here!

This Saturday, Ilia Topuria puts his featherweight title on the line against Max Holloway in one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year. On top of that, the co-main event features a big-time middleweight matchup with former champion Robert Whittaker taking on Khamzat Chimaev in what may well determine the next middleweight title challenger. With all that, plus 11 more fights on the docket, let’s dive into the best bets this week.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Ilia Topuria by Points (+280)

I have a full written break down of the main event out on MMAFighting.com so check that out for a deeper dive, but to me this fight boils down to Topuria has a stylistic advantage, alongside being younger, more physical, and an ascending talent. Holloway certainly has tools to win, but I favor Topuria to get the job done. That being said, Holloway may actually be impossible to finish at this point in his career, and the value between this bet and Topuria straight at -260 is substantial.

Topuria vs. Holloway Over 3.5 Rounds (-126)

Basically the exact same reason as the above bet: I expect this fight will go long. Holloway has been finished once in his entire career, back in his 5th professional fight when he was 20 years old. Topuria, obviously, has never been finished since he’s never lost. More to the point though, even in wins, Holloway has a tendency to go long. Nine of Holloway’s past 10 fights have gone into the fifth round or to a decision. This looks like good value to me.

Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO or Submission (-165)

At this point in his career, the question for Chimaev is not “will he win the fight?” it’s “will he show up?” Every time Chimaev steps in the cage, he gets his hand raised, lately it’s been a matter of getting to the cage. But thus far, it appears Chimaev will make the walk on Saturday, which means Whittaker is in trouble.

Robert Whittaker is a future Hall of Famer, but this is a tough fight for him. Chimaev has shown the ability to rag-doll everyone he’s faced, and given the way Dricus du Plessis big-brothered Whittaker, it seems likely that Chimaev will be able to do the same. Simply put, Whittaker is a great fighter, but Chimaev is better and should cement his title shot on Saturday.

Lerone Murphy by Points (-135)

This is Dan Ige’s first fight since heroically stepping in at UFC 303 on four hours’ notice and I’ll be honest, it’s a puzzler. I thought Ige’s willingness to be a company man would’ve earned him a better opportunity but instead he gets Murphy, a guy who is very good and still pretty unknown.

This should be a straightforward Murphy win as he can out-work Ige on the feet and mix in takedowns as necessary. But like with the main event, Dan Ige is incapable of being finished so instead of taking Murphy straight, go for the Decision prop to increase your value.

Parlay

Geoff Neal (-310)

Neal takes on Rafael dos Anjos in the prelims of UFC 308 and he’s among the fighters I’m most confident in to get a win on Saturday. RDA is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s pushing 40 and has never been a true welterweight. Yes, he’s had success at 170 pounds, but dos Anjos is much better at lightweight where his bully tactics are more effective. Now he’s facing Neal who is still in the prime of his career, substantially bigger, and a very good defensive wrestler. Neal should box RDA’s ears.

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-245)

Originally intended to face Nursulton Ruziboev, instead Fakhretdinov now takes on former PFL fighter Carlos Leal, who steps in on short notice. Fakhretdinov should have the run of play in this one as he can compete on the feet and score takedowns nearly at will. Fakhretdinov is just a damn good fighter and Leal is a bit overmatched in this one.

Parlay these two bets together for -116 odds

Long Shot

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway to be Won in the 1st Minute of Round 1 or the Last Minute of the 5th Round (+1800)

We haven’t taken a stab on a long shot in a long time but this Saturday demands it. Holloway now has this insanely cool gimmick of pointing to the ground and slugging it out at the end of fights, to the point that Topuria is calling for them to start the bout like that. And while Holloway does not seem inclined to oblige him, if this thing goes late, you know he will.

And the wonderful folks at FanDuel have you covered with this bet that pays out either way. If Max does meet Ilia in the middle to start and the bout ends quickly, electric. And if this thing goes long, that final stretch will be equally electric.

This bet probably won’t cash, but it’s going to be fun.

Wrap Up

Oof. Tough week over in the PFL as we missed every one of our straight plays. Fortunately, that cannot happen this week as we have no straight plays! Almost every fight this week has pretty long odds so instead of picking straight, we had to opt for a bunch of prop bets instead. Hopefully we picked our spots right.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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