Flags At Nigerian Protests Could Signal Russian Plans To Expand Influence – Analysis

After forming alliances with military-led juntas in the Sahel, Russia might be moving its influence campaign south by supporting social unrest in Nigeria.

During a 10-day August protest demanding better governance, some demonstrators in the northwestern city of Kano suddenly produced Russian flags and called on Russia to pressure the federal government for regime change. Authorities arrested 90 people for waving or making Russian flags.

Nigerian Chief of Defense Gen. Christopher Musa told reporters the government would not accept citizens flying foreign flags.

“We will not accept anyone pushing for a change of government,” Musa said.

Injecting Russian sentiment into domestic protests has become a standard ploy by Russian operatives in Africa, according to Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) in Washington, D.C.

“The pattern of how Russia has been able to weaponize and hijack protests for its own political objectives is underappreciated on the continent,” Siegle told PassBlue, which covers the United Nations. “It’s clearly an effort to foment unrest and manipulate authentic grievances.”

The risk, Siegle said, is that Russian influence in Nigeria could cause isolated protests to expand into nation-crippling unrest.

“This is exactly the pattern we saw in Mali in the 18 months prior to the coup,” he said.

Russia is a major purveyor of disinformation across Africa, particularly in the Sahel. Studies have shown that Russia accounts for 40% of disinformation on social media and fake news outlets.

The African countries where Russia is active score an average of 22 out of 100 on Freedom House’s measure of access to political rights and civil liberties. African countries, on average, score 43.

The ACSS estimates that Russian influence has stunted or derailed democratic progress in two dozen African countries. Russian disinformation campaigns target African countries with weak democratic institutions.

Before Mali’s 2021 military coup, a Russian disinformation campaign undermined faith in the country’s elected government, which had been unable to defeat a Tuareg insurgency for many years.

After the coup, the ruling junta quickly invited Russian Wagner Group mercenaries, now Africa Corps, to enter the country as “trainers.” The mercenaries since have raided communities, executed people and violated human rights.

Russia has had a similar influence in neighboring Burkina Faso and, more recently, Niger, which borders six Nigerian states to the north. Burkina Faso and Niger are ruled by juntas that overthrew democratic governments.

“So, when you see Russian flags in Nigeria, there is an obvious link to what Russia has done elsewhere,” Siegle told PassBlue.

Russia has paired its military influence in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger with mining operations that target the Sahel’s most valuable national resources, including gold and uranium. Russian forces have followed a similar pattern in the Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan.

Nigeria experienced five military coups between 1960 and 1999, but Nigeria’s 218 million people have lived under a multiparty democracy for 25 years.

Nigeria’s northern states have a long historical, cultural and economic relationship with Niger. The regions share a largely Muslim, Hausa-speaking population.

The northern states have lived for decades under the threat of terrorism from Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province.

A study by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa reported that nearly 56,000 people were killed in Nigeria in about 10,000 attacks from October 2019 to September 2023. More than 21,000 people were kidnapped during that same period.

Observers worry the insecurity across northern Nigeria echoes the situation in the Sahelian countries, raising the potential for greater Russian influence in that region. Some see Russia’s recent attempt to develop influence in northern Nigeria as the precursor to an attempt to exploit gold resources in Zamfara State.

“Protests are a normal democratic act to demand change,” Siegle said. “These are the very acts being hijacked by an external actor … which has been Russia’s key means of entry and influence in Africa.”