Is ‘Conclave’ the Oscars dark horse that could shake up the Best Picture race?
Readers who regularly follow Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions may have noticed a movie quietly working its way up the ranks in various categories. That movie is “Conclave,” an adaptation of Robert Harris‘s best-selling 2016 novel, which was released nationwide by Focus Features on Friday, October 25. So now seems like a good time to look at which categories “Conclave” can thrive in.
Directed by Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front“), the movie follows Ralph Fiennes‘s Cardinal Lawrence, who has taken on the less than envious task of running the elections to select a new pope after the previous pontiff dies suddenly. Many cardinals are in the running, and some even want Lawrence to take on that lofty role, until someone lurking in the shadows begins revealing dirt on the candidates.
When you have a movie do as well at the Oscars as Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” did two years ago (four wins out of nine nominations), people are bound to be interested in your follow-up movie, and that includes academy voters. Fortunately, Berger has delivered a strong dramatic thriller, which premiered at the Telluride and Toronto International Film Festivals in September, racking up positive reviews — currently at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes — so it seems like a good time to break down its Oscar potential.
“Conclave” has an exceptionally strong cast, which already makes it a strong contender for a SAG Awards ensemble bid. The clear standout is Ralph Fiennes, a two-time previous nominee for “Schindler’s List” and “The English Patient,” but who hasn’t received an Oscar nomination in over 25 years. Fiennes’s “The Constant Gardener” co-star Rachel Weisz even won the Oscar for that 2005 drama, while he didn’t even earn a nomination.
After Fiennes, academy voters are likely to look at another previous nominee, Stanley Tucci, who plays Cardinal Bellini, the American Roman Catholic contender for the papacy and confidante to Lawrence who has some of the most dynamic dramatic scenes in the film. Tucci was previously nominated for his role in Peter Jackson‘s adaptation of the bestselling “The Lovely Bones” in 2009 and might be one of the most respected character actors in Hollywood.
Two-time Oscar nominee John Lithgow is also a Best Supporting Actor hopeful for his role as another key cardinal, but that’s a smaller and less showy role than Tucci’s. Berger’s international cast also includes Mexican actor Carlos Diehz, who has a few important scenes with Fiennes. Actually, almost all the actors in the film have at least one major scene with the leading man.
Isabella Rossellini has also attracted attention for her supporting role as Sister Agnes. In the only major female role in the movie, Rossellini brings another voice of reason to the tumultuous conclave. She’s on the cusp of a Best Supporting Actress nomination, according to Gold Derby’s current odds, but could be bumped by Saoirse Ronan for “Blitz” and/or Selena Gomez for “Emilia Pérez.” It’s somewhat shocking that Rossellini, who is the daughter of legendary Italian filmmaker Roberto Rossellini and famed actress Ingrid Bergman, has never been nominated for an Oscar despite almost 50 years in the business with unforgettable roles in David Lynch‘s “Blue Velvet” and more.
Best Director could be a tougher category for Berger with so much competition for those five slots. The fact that he wasn’t nominated for helming “All Quiet on the Western Front,” despite it winning the Best International Feature category and multiple craft awards, suggests he might not yet have the clout in the directors branch to get their vote. That said, he does currently rank among the likely nominees in Gold Derby’s odds, so perhaps the academy is about to make up for his previous snub.
Having a stronger chance of winning is Peter Straughan‘s adapted screenplay, which contains as much striking dialogue as his Oscar-nominated script for “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” The screenplay and acting categories often share a tight bond, even though they’re nominated by two separate branches. After all, you can’t have performances on the level of this cast’s if it’s not on the page, and those actors really bring out the strength of Straughan’s (and Harris’s) words.
Craft categories are going to be extremely competitive at this year’s Oscars, but “Conclave” does have a few achievements that stand out, most notably the costumes by Lisy Christl, who was previously nominated for “Anonymous,” the Roland Emmerich-directed movie that questioned whether William Shakespeare wrote his own plays. Christl had to design elaborate garments for the cardinals, which really stand out in the conclave scenes where they’re all gathered to vote.
Berger’s composer for “All Quiet,” Volker Bertelmann, won the Oscar for that film on his second nomination, and his score for “Conclave” does just as much to drive the suspense in the story, so it has a strong chance of being nominated, and the odds say it’ll win too.
Another impressive achievement is Suzie Davies‘s production design. She worked on the title estate for Emerald Fennell‘s “Saltburn” last year, after getting an Oscar nomination for Mike Leigh‘s “Mr. Turner” back in 2014. She also designed Leigh’s upcoming “Hard Truths,” but that isn’t nearly as extravagant as recreating the interiors of the Vatican and other locations around Rome.
Other below-the-line categories like Best Editing and Best Cinematography might be tougher to break into, with larger-scale films like “Gladiator II” and “Dune: Part Two” vying against indie films “Anora” and “The Brutalist” there. Even so, with so much potential support from actors, writers, and some of the craft branches, it seems like “Conclave” could easily be one of the 10 ultimate Best Picture nominees. Getting a directing nomination may be crucial for its chances to win, though recent Best Picture winners like “Argo,” “Green Book,” and “CODA” have shown that a Best Director snub is not a deal-breaker.
We also may want to make a note of how “Conclave” does at the box office this weekend, although Focus Features will probably do their best to keep it in theaters to make sure academy voters and industry guilds, especially the Screen Actors Guild, get to see the movie before voting. At this point, it looks good for six or seven Oscar nominations, including one of those Best Picture slots.