UFC 308 Paths to Victory: Can Ilia Topuria ring in a new featherweight era by beating Max Holloway?

Can Ilia Topuria retain his title, how can Max Holloway become the new champion again, and what are we most intrigued by in this matchup? Let’s dive in.

Paths to Victory for Ilia Topuria at UFC 308

Max Holloway is a cheater.

MMA is supposed to be an honorable combat sport, where two men step into a cage to find out who is the better, more skilled fighter. This is why fighters get so bent out of shape about Performance Enhancing Drugs because when one fighter takes them and the other doesn’t, it constitutes an unfair advantage. Well, Max Holloway also has an unfair advantage in every fight he’s in: he’s impossible to hurt.

Holloway’s chin is made of some alloy of adamantium and mithril. Through 29 UFC bouts and nearly eight hours of octagon time, Holloway has never officially been knocked down (I say officially because Justin Gaethje 100 percent did drop him, and the stat keepers are idiots) much less out. He’s fought some of the heaviest hitters across two weight classes and they can’t dent him. That’s astonishing, to put it mildly. It’s also cheating because if you cannot be killed, then what chance does your opponent have?!

Well, that chance is in out-working Holloway tactically over 25 minutes, as Alexander Volkanovski did three times. That’s the task ahead for Topuria in his first title defense.

In broad terms, over their first two fights, Volkanovski was able to edge out Holloway with feints, footwork, a sturdy jab, and a bevy of low kicks, both inside and outside. Then in their third encounters, Volkanovski simply whipped his ass with those same tools, plus a renewed willingness to throw in combination, with power. And fortunately for Topuria, he can do all of those things.

Topuria does not generally throw a lot of leg kicks, but I expect that to change for this fight. The champion is certainly capable of throwing them, and they’re a huge weapon both to score and to stifle Holloway’s movement as Topuria tries to back him to the fence. More importantly though, I think the best thing Topuria can do in this fight is commit to body work early and often.

Holloway’s game is built off of his jab and so to beat him, that needs to be priority one. Volkanovski solved that with low kicks and while Topuria should do those as well, he also has the opportunity to change his level under the jab and hit to the body with his own jab or right hand. It’s an excellent weapon to both move Holloway back, square him up, and create openings for going up high in combination. That is the sort of offense that will really get to Holloway and put him behind the eight ball early.

As mentioned, Holloway’s chin is nigh uncrackable, and while that doesn’t mean Topuria should abandon attacking it entirely, it’s ambitious to think all he needs to do to beat Holloway is get him along the fence and lower the boom. Instead, Topuria needs to be prepared for a drawn-out contest where he simply out-scoring Holloway by attacking all levels available.

Paths to victory for Max Holloway at UFC 308

For years, Max Holloway has claimed to have the best boxing in the UFC. Well, that’s about to be put to the test once again.

Though he is only 27 years old, Ilia Topuria already has some of the best boxing in MMA. He has excellent pressure footwork, cuts angles, throws in combination, works all levels of the body and head, and packs ludicrous power. It’s a game designed to walk down opponents, seize the initiative, and level them with efficiency. But it’s not without its weaknesses.

At this point the book is out on kicking Topuria on the open side. Volkanovski, Josh Emmett, and even Jai Herbert all made a point of popping left kicks into the body and up to the head. Topuria employs a high and tight boxing guard, and wants to walk opponents down and these kicks make that more difficult by setting a longer range, outside of his punching threat, or by simply keeping his guard locked in to defend.

In a similar vein, Holloway should also look to kick the legs. Though Topuria ultimately clubbed him with a combination, Volkanovski had decent success against Topuria early by moving around on angles and chopping the lead leg. Given his heavy boxing stance and the frequency with which Topuria uses feints and level changes, it’s a good scoring tool for Holloway.

Lastly, and this would be a relatively new one for Holloway, would be for Max to look for clinches. Holloway does solid work when he’s forced into the clinch but never seeks it out, and so against Topuria that could be a good wrinkle, especially as Topuria himself isn’t a focused clinch fighter. Volkanovski landed good knees in the clinch and Holloway could have similar success.

One Big Thing

The outcome of most high level fights depends on dozens of different things, but frankly, it’s a lot to list all of those out. Instead, let’s simplify things by determining the One Big Thing that will determine Saturday’s winner.

Who seizes the initiative?

Both Topuria and Holloway prefer to fight on the front foot, taking the initiative and leading the dance. For Topuria, it’s imposing pressure and physicality to maneuver opponents back to the fence, cut off their escape routes, and level them. For Holloway, it’s simply to force opponents to the back foot where he has more freedom to work in long combinations against retreating forces. But in both cases, both men want to be leading the dance and whoever wins this battle of wills should win the fight.

One Small Thing

Now we know the single most important factor of Saturday’s main event, but what about something else entirely that almost certainly won’t happen but if it does could change everything.

Stand your ground.

May fighters have signature moves but Holloway has perhaps the coolest one in MMA history: pointing to the ground and beckoning a brawl in the last 10 seconds of a fight. Earlier this year it lead to one of the greatest knockouts of all-time, and as a result, Topuria even challenged Holloway to start their fight off like that. Holloway already vetoed this idea, but what if he doesn’t? Honestly, this might be a very good strategy for Holloway as his unbreakable chin gives him a decided advantage in any wild firefight like that.

Prediction

I fear this may be a difficult fight for Max Holloway. “Blessed” has had a remarkable career and his win over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 will live forever, but upon closer inspection that victory has some of the trappings of an all-time great fighter proving his bonafides despite declining. Meanwhile, Topuria is not yet in his best or final form and was able to Volkanovski — a man who beat Holloway three times — with relative ease. And given that Holloway isn’t nearly as good on the back foot as Volkanovski is, the most likely scenario to mean seems to be Topuria bullying Holloway around the cage for 25 minutes.

Holloway is an exceptional fighter and if he can defy the odds on Saturday, it will be an all-time great performance, but I think we’re living in the Topuria era now.

Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).