NFL Week 8 Picks - Fantasy Football Sleepers, Super Bowl Futures, and More

Betting Life’s Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich make their mid-season Super Bowl predictions, share their fantasy sleepers and more in this week’s Roundtable! 

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Who will win the Super Bowl?

• Last week we asked about the worst team in the NFL. Now we’re looking for the best. Almost halfway through the season, who are you betting on to win the Super Bowl?

Matthew Freedman: Lions (+1000, BetMGM) | Bills +1200 (DraftKings) 

I have the Lions priced at +515 and Bills at +836, so both offer value at their current odds. I have the Lions power rated as my No. 3 team (+6.25), just behind the Ravens (+6.75) and Chiefs (+6.5). I believe the Lions should be priced far closer to the Ravens (+700) and Chiefs (+475) than they are. As for the Bills: Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level with a 9.1 AY/A and no INTs. If the Bills get this version of Allen in the playoffs, they can win a championship.    

LaMarca: I wish I had a better hot take, but it’s the Chiefs (+450). I have no idea how this team has yet to lose a game. They’ve lost some crucial skill position players. Patrick Mahomes has more interceptions than touchdown passes. They’ve played games against the Ravens, Bengals, and 49ers. And yet, somehow, they’re still unblemished. That should terrify the rest of the league. This is a team that massively elevated their game during the postseason last year. Mahomes is still the best quarterback in football, and if you let him hang around, he’ll steal the game late. I have the Ravens as the best team in football, but do I trust them to beat Mahomes in Arrowhead in the playoffs? Absolutely not. 

Ulrich: Lions (+1000; BetMGM) 

I’ve resisted jumping on the Detroit bandwagon because I’ve always felt they’re limited somewhat by Jared Goff. Fast forward to today and Goff has pitched a perfect game, is now fourth in MVP odds, and playing the best football of his life. Detroit has also already beaten their closest rival (the Vikings) and has the fast track on the No. 1 seed with the 49ers in a down season.  

Losing Hutchinson stinks, but they’re still 9th in EPA per play on defense this season, and who knows what the trade deadline will bring. I’d argue that the current gap in odds between Detroit (+1000; BetMGM) and KC (+475; BetMGM) is too big making them a preferred target for betting.  

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A Rest of Season Fantasy Football Sleeper

• We’re all fantasy football players here, why hide it? Who is the player you’re stashing on your bench for late-season upside and sleeper-dom?

Matthew Freedman: Troy Franklin 

I highlighted Franklin in my Week 8 Freedman’s Favorites (WR Edition). With WR Josh Reynolds (finger, IR) unavailable, Franklin has served as the team’s No. 2 perimeter receiver for the past two weeks, and with his 68% route rate he has a team-high nine targets in that span. As a rookie, he has the upside to build on his current role, and he also has an established connection with Bo Nix from their two years together in college at Oregon, where Franklin had 1,383 yards and 14 TDs receiving in 13 games in his final season. With few established pass catchers on the team, Franklin could emerge as a reliable contributor by the end of the season.  

Matt LaMarca: Trey Benson. The Cardinals are sitting at 3-4, so they’re still technically alive for a playoff spot. However, there have already been rumors circulating about a few players being available on the block. That includes starting running back James Conner. If Conner does land somewhere else — perhaps with the Cowboys? — it opens the door for Benson to take over the starting job. He was an early third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft with home-run-hitting speed; he blazed a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine. He’s had a small role so far this season, but he has the potential to be a league-winner if Conner is shipped out the door. 

Geoff Ulrich: AT Perry, WR, Denver 

The Broncos picked up Perry off waivers a couple of weeks ago after he was released by the Saints. Perry scored 26 TDs in his final two years of college, is 6’4, and ran a 4.47 at the combine. In his first year with the Saints, he averaged 20.5 yards per catch and scored four times on just 12 catches last year. 

He’s yet to be activated but with Denver’s barren depth chart at WR, he’d instantly become their best, most explosive receiver when he is. Perry’s for deeper leagues only, but is the sort of “from out of nowhere” player who could end up making a huge difference in fantasy playoffs.  

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Denver Broncos Best Bets

• The Denver Broncos are a trendy team for the whole “if the season ended today, they’d be in the playoffs” thing. What’s your best Broncos bet right now — future, player, anything

Freedman: Broncos to Win AFC West (+4000, Caesars) 

I haven’t bet this yet … but I’m thinking about it. Based on their record, power rating and remaining schedule, I have this priced at +3372, so there’s theoretical value in this position. That doesn’t mean I want to bet it — because I hate betting against the Chiefs, and that’s basically what this is — but if Patrick Mahomes were to suffer a significant injury then the Broncos would have the best shot to capitalize in the AFC West. They have a Super Bowl-winning coach in Sean Payton, an improving QB in rookie Bo Nix, and an elite defense that ranks No. 2 in EPA (-0.161, per RBs Don’t Matter). It’s possible. Theoretically. If I’m gonna bet Broncos, I might as well bet ’em big. 

LaMarca: Broncos to miss the playoffs (-200). Congratulations to the Broncos for making the seven-week playoff mark. Unfortunately for them, the season lasts 18 weeks. They were listed at -750 to miss the playoffs before the start of the year, so getting them at -200 now feels pretty strong. They have absolutely zero chance of catching the Chiefs for the division, so the best-case scenario for Denver is one of the three wild card spots. However, they’re still going to have to contend with the two AFC North runner-ups (currently the Steelers and Bengals), the AFC South runner-up (likely the Colts), and the Chargers in their own division (who already have a head-to-head win against them). Maybe the Jets or Dolphins can get back into contention, too. Ultimately, there are just too many teams that are better than Denver, even if Denver is better than originally anticipated. 

Ulrich: Broncos to make the playoffs (+198; FanDuel).  

Denver’s defense was not expected to be a top-three unit, but here we are seven weeks in and they’re second in EPA per play and lead the league in yards per play allowed (4.4). Sean Payton is also starting to hand the reigns to some of his younger playmakers, so the potential for a second-half bump on offense is there.  

The schedule gets a little rocky coming up but they still have games against the Browns and Raiders, so if they can split the games with KC (they beat them last year 24-9 in Denver), they’ll have a decent chance at scraping into a wildcard spot.  

You can find more of our NFL free bets in our bet tracker as well. And upset picks can be found in our NFL betting model for Week 8. 

Rapid Fire Betting Questions – 5 word answers

Answer the following questions in exactly five words:

• What do you predict for the Seahawks rest of season?

Freedman: 8.9 wins, shot at playoffs. 

LaMarca: Good enough to make playoffs

Ulrich: Lose division to 49ers/Rams. 

• Checking in on Coach of the Year. Who do you like?

Freedman: Dan Quinn. Sportswriters love him. 

LaMarca: 5-1 with Darnold? It’s KOC

Ulrich: Commanders respectable? It’s Dan Quinn. 

• Jason vs. Freddy vs. Count Chocula. Who wins?

Freedman: I’ve never seen the movies … 

LaMarca: Big Freddy Krueger clears all. 

Ulrich: Count Chocula. Diabetes is forever.

• Who will win the NFC North?

Freedman: Lions, but Vikings are close. 

LaMarca: Lions go back-to-back

Ulrich: Detroit. Packers make it interesting.  

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