Barclays beats profit expectations, upgrades income outlook for 2024

Barclays (BARC.L) reported a forecast-beating 18 per cent rise in third-quarter profit on Thursday, as slower than expected interest rate cuts and upbeat investment banking prospects helped it raise its income outlook for the year.

The buoyant earnings performance shows early promise for Barclays in its challenge, along with European rivals, to sustain earnings even as interest rates fall.

Barclays said it now forecasts three Bank of England rate cuts this year to a final policy rate of 4.5 per cent, having previously forecast five cuts and a final rate of 4 per cent.

The British bank’s pretax profit for the July-September period was 2.2 billion pounds ($2.85 billion), up from 1.9 billion a year ago and higher than the average of analysts’ forecasts of 2 billion pounds.

Barclays upgraded its forecast for net interest income for the year, saying it now expects to exceed 11 billion pounds rather than just hit that target.

Barclays’ shares – which have rocketed 61 per cent so far this year and are trading close to a nine-year high – were 4 per cent higher at 0825 GMT, outperforming a 0.8 per cent rise in the FTSE 100 (.FTSE).

“Overall, these numbers are positive on any number of fronts, and the warm share price reaction to the update is well-won given the high expectations which the bank was up against going into the results,” Interactive Investor analyst Richard Hunter said.

Barclays’ domestic corporate and consumer lending business once again performed well, vindicating a drive to invest in the division, with the 600 million pounds acquisition of Tesco’s banking arm in February.

The unit’s third-quarter return on tangible equity, a closely watched measure of performance, rose to 23.4 per cent from 21 per cent a year ago.

“Default levels remain low, mortgage activity is picking up, and deposit migration headwinds are easing,” Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said.

INVESTMENT BANK

Barclays said third-quarter income in its investment bank rose 6 per cent year on year, a strong performance that exceeded expectations as corporate fundraising and dealmaking increased and equities trading was boosted by the bullish stock market.

Germany’s Deutsche Bank also produced an 11 per cent year-on-year rise in investment banking revenues, smashing expectations for gains of 6.5 per cent over the third quarter.

At Barclays, third-quarter fixed income, currencies and commodities and equities revenue both rose 3 per cent year on year to 1.18 billion pounds and 692 million pounds respectively.

Advisory fee income surged 133 per cent to 186 million pounds while fees generated in the bank’s debt capital markets business rose 48 per cent year on year to 344 million.

Equity fundraising income came in at 64 million pounds – 3 per cent higher year on year but almost half the income was reported in the second quarter of 2024.

The investment bank’s performance, however, lagged behind some US and European rivals.

CFO Anna Cross, speaking to reporters, said she felt Barclays was faring well against US rivals, with the impact of reporting dollar revenues in pounds making performance appear relatively worse against Wall Street peers.

“In (investment) banking we’re up 67 per cent in dollars, which measures very well against our US peers … and we’re up 7 per cent in dollars in markets,” Cross said.

“So we think we measure up pretty well and we’re on track.”

Barclays’ advisory gains follow an extensive reorganisation of its sector coverage and investment in staff, executives at the bank said earlier this month.

The bank in February unveiled its biggest revamp since 2016 in a bid to bolster investor confidence, saying it would push further into domestic lending and reduce the financial resources consumed by its investment bank relative to other businesses.