The cheat sheet: Worst appears over for betting favorites, and that includes Ravens
Best Bet
RAVENS at BROWNS
Time: Noon.
Line: Ravens by 9.
Total: 44½.
Records (overall/ATS): Ravens 5-2/4-2-1; Browns 1-6/2-5.
The big dogs were barking early, but heading into the heart of the NFL season, sanity and predictability are finally getting some traction.
It has been a tough go for those who gravitate toward chalk no matter how hard they try to accept the unpredictability of the NFL. Through five weeks, the biggest favorites — teams favored by six or more points — were a wallet-rushing 8-11 straight-up and 2-14-3 against the spread. Ouch!
Nowhere was the trend more painful than for players in Circa Sports’ $1,000-per-entry Survivor Pro Football Contest, where just picking a straight-up winner (not against the spread) became an impossible task. In just three weeks, about 95.5% of the 14,266 entries were eliminated, leaving just 642 alive. The Bengals (minus-8) lost to the Patriots in Week 1. The Ravens (minus-9) lost to the Raiders in Week 2. The four most popular picks in Week 3 all lost: the Bengals (minus-7œ) to the Commanders, the Browns (minus-6œ) to the Giants, the Buccaneers (minus-6) to the Broncos, and the Raiders (minus-5œ) to the winless Panthers.
Two weeks later, after the two biggest favorites lost outright — the Seahawks (minus-7) to the Giants, the 49ers (minus-7) to the Cardinals — only 221 entries remained.
Finally, the surge of big underdogs winning has abated. In the last two weeks, favorites of six or more points are a healthy 8-0 outright and 6-2 against the spread. The predictable blowout has returned: The Texans (minus-7) over the Patriots, 41-21, and the Bills (-9œ) over the Titans, 34-10. Not even the dreaded in-game injury, the bane of the serious sports bettor, could
ruin your day. The Commanders (minus-9œ) lost star rookie quarterback Jayden
Daniels after 10 snaps last week but still blew out the Panthers 40-7 with veteran Marcus Mariota.
That sets up an interesting Week 8, with a season-high seven games with favorites of six or more points.
The Ravens have won five straight after opening 0-2 and are facing the Browns with Jameis Winston at quarterback after starter Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles tendon last week. Winston will be making his first NFL start since Week 3 in 2022 with the Saints, when he was benched with a 79.5 passer rating in favor of Andy Dalton.
A few weeks ago, this might have been an upset in the making. But now, it’s a bad team in a tough spot against a good team.
Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 10.
TOP PLAYS
PANTHERS at BRONCOS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 10.
Total: 43½.
Records (overall/ATS): Panthers 1-6/1-6; Broncos 4-3-/5-2.
Outlook: Panthers QB Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick in 2023, gets another shot after Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in a car accident this week. Young had a 44.1 passer rating (zero TDs, 3 INTs) in Weeks 1 and 2 before he was benched. The Broncos aren’t great, but they’ve won four of five, their run game is in a groove, and they’re at home.
Pick: Broncos 31, Panthers 16.
PACKERS at JAGUARS
Time: Noon, Fox 32.
Line: Packers by 4.
Total: 49½.
Records (overall/ATS): Packers 5-2/4-3;
Jaguars 2-5/3-4.
Outlook: The Jaguars elected not to take the bye after two games in London. That worked well last year, when they returned home and beat the Colts 37-20. The Packers have won five of six but were fortunate to beat the Texans at home last week, and Jordan Love has been good but not great with an NFL-high eight INTs. But it’s the NFL.
Pick: Packers 34, Jags 17.
COWBOYS at 49ERS
Time: 7:20 p.m., NBC 5.
Line: 49ers by 4.
Total: 46½.
Records (overall/ATS): 49ers 3-4/3-4;
Cowboys 3-3/2-3-1.
Outlook: An uninspiring matchup between two of the league’s most disappointing teams. The 49ers lost WR Brandon Aiyuk for the season, and Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Jauan Jennings are banged up. The Cowboys suffered a 47-9 shellacking at home against the Lions but are coming off their bye.
Pick: Cowboys 24, 49ers 20.
THE REST OF THE GAMES
BEARS at COMMANDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m., CBS 2.
Line: Bears by 2½. Total: 43.
Records (overall/ATS): Bears 4-2/4-1-1; Commanders 5-2/5-1-1.
Outlook: Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels (bruised ribs) will either be out or banged up — a tough spot against the Bears’ defense. Marcus Mariota would be making his first start since 2022 with the Falcons. The Bears are 4-1 SU/4-0-1 ATS in their last five against backup starting QBs.
Pick: Bears 27, Commanders 23.
EAGLES at BENGALS
Time: Noon, CBS 2.
Line: Bengals by 2½. Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS): Eagles 4-2/3-3; Bengals 3-4/4-3.
Outlook: Two more teams with Super Bowl hopes that aren’t living up to expectations — both on modest two-game win streaks after beating the Giants (2-5) and Browns (1-6). Eagles’ run defense makes the difference.
Pick: Eagles 21, Bengals 16.
CARDINALS at DOLPHINS
Time: Noon.
Line: Dolphins by 3½. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Cardinals 3-4/4-3; Dolphins 2-4/1-5.
Outlook: Kyler Murray and the Cardinals aren’t getting much respect after a shaky victory over the Chargers last week. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could return but is unlikely to be in top form after missing four games with a concussion.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Dolphins 16.
JETS at PATRIOTS
Time: Noon.
Line: Jets by 7. Total: 41½.
Records (overall/ATS): Jets 2-5/2-5; Patriots 1-6/1-5-1.
Outlook: Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 15 interceptions in his last 24 complete games after throwing just 15 picks in his previous 64 games. But this looks like a good spot for him to recapture some lost glory.
Pick: Jets 31, Patriots 17.
FALCONS at BUCCANEERS
Time: Noon.
Line: Falcons by 2½. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Falcons 4-3/3-4; Buccaneers 4-3/4-3.
Outlook: Kirk Cousins and the Falcons inexplicably hit the wall against the Seahawks at home last week. But Baker Mayfield and the Bucs will be in bounce-back mode as well after losing to the Ravens.
Pick: Buccaneers 34, Falcons 30.
TITANS at LIONS
Time: Noon.
Line: Lions by 11. Total: 45½.
Records (overall/ATS): Titans 1-5/1-5; Lions 5-1/5-1.
Outlook: The Titans are the best one-win team. The Lions faltered in a similar spot in Week 2 as a home favorite against the Bucs.
Pick: Lions 27, Titans 17.
COLTS at TEXANS
Time: Noon.
Line: Texans by 5. Total: 46.
Records (overall/ATS): Colts 4-3/6-1; Texans 5-2/3-3-1.
Outlook: The Colts have won four of their last five, by five, three, three and six points. And they’ve yet to lose by more than one score.
Pick: Texans 24, Colts 17.
BILLS at SEAHAWKS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 47.
Records (overall/ATS): Bills 5-2/4-3; Seahawks 4-3/2-4-1.
Outlook: The Seahawks have lost three of their last four games, yet are all alone in first place in the NFC West. This league, man.
Pick: Bills 30, Seahawks 22.
SAINTS at CHARGERS
Time: 3:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 7½. Total: 39½.
Records (overall/ATS): Saints 2-5/3-4; Chargers 3-3/3-3.
Outlook: Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh will crack the whip after his team found a way to lose to the Cardinals last week.
Pick: Chargers 27, Saints 17.
CHIEFS at RAIDERS
Time: 3:25 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 41.
Records (overall/ATS): Chiefs 6-0/5-1; Raiders 2-5/3-4.
Outlook: Patrick Mahomes is off to the worst start of his career; his 82.5 passer rating (six TDs, eight INTs) is 20th in the NFL. But the Chiefs haven’t forgotten how to win.
Pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 13.
GIANTS at STEELERS
Time: 7:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN, ABC 7.
Line: Steelers by 6½. Total: 36½.
Records (overall/ATS): Giants 2-5/2-4-1; Steelers 5-2/5-2.
Outlook: Russell Wilson gave the Steelers the spark they were looking for last week. He’s not what he was but still loves prime time.
Pick: Steelers 27, Giants 20,