Japan Goes To Polls: Political Instability Feared – Analysis
After succeeding Fumio Kishida as the Prime Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishida called for a snap election on 28 October 2024. But it soon dawned on him and the ruling coalition government that his popularity rating had dramatically plummeted. With several opinion surveys indicating that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could possibly lose its majority. If that actually happens, what could be the possible strategy for the LDP? One possibility is the LDP might rope in a third party to form a government.
A total of 233 seats are needed in the 465-seat chamber for a majority. When it was dissolved on 9 October, the LDP held 256 seats and Komeito 32, for a total of 288. But the public backlash over an LDP-centered slush funds scandal has put the ruling bloc’s 55 seat majority in jeopardy.
An opinion poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily suggested the final tally for both parties could be less than 233 seats, prompting questions over what would happen next in such a scenario. The poll said that 33 per cent of voters support the Ishiba Cabinet, which is lower than the support rate for the previous Kishida Cabinet in 2021. This was against 39 per cent endorsed by the non-supporters.
In a speech delivered on 15 October, Ishiba promised to release “new economic policies”. But the poll revealed that 53 per cent said they do not have high expectations for Ishiba’s economic policies as against 24 per cent expressed optimism. In a similar survey conducted in 2021 before the previous Lower House election soon after Kishida became the Prime Minister, 42 per cent expressed support for Kishida, while 31 per cent said they did not support. However, 45 per cent said they did not have high expectations for Kishida’s economic policies.
In the latest survey, twenty-eight percent of voters who said they do not support the Ishiba Cabinet chose the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Eleven percent selected the Democratic Party for the People, and 10 percent picked Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party).
Interestingly, sixty-three percent of voters who expressed support for the Ishiba Cabinet and 61 percent of voters who said they have high expectations for Ishiba’s economic policies said they would vote for the LDP. Thirty-two percent of voters said they are greatly interested in the 27 October election, and 66 percent said they will definitely go to the polls.
Both figures are at low levels, compared with results of similar surveys between 2005 and 2021. Since the survey methods and targets were different from earlier surveys, a close parallel between the two surveys need not be seen as same indicators.
It transpires therefore that the LDP is shaken by low public support rating for the Ishiba Cabinet. The LDP undoubtedly is heading towards unexpected headwinds when polls are held on 28 October. Ishiba seeking forgiveness from the voters for his party’s massive slush fund scandal is not going to help him or the party.
Like the Asahi opinion survey, there was another survey conducted by the Jiji. Its results announced days before the election revealed that public support for the Ishiba Cabinet stood at 28 per cent. This alarmed many in the LDP since a support rating under 30 per cent is said to signal that the administration is in the “danger zone”. Just a month ago, when Ishiba won the LDP Presidential race on 27 September, Ishiba was the top pick for the next prime minister but public expectations soon faded. This was solely because of the peoples’ frustration with the unabated criticism of the LDP over the fund scandal.
Viewed critically, the scandal does not seem to be the only reason for Ishiba's low initial rating. It was even lower than the previous lowest starting rating since 2000, which was 33.3% marked by former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori's Cabinet just after its April 2000 launch. What worked against Ishiba is that during the LDP presidential race before he became Prime Minister, he made bold proposals but soon wavered over key issue. This was a major reason of the trust deficit as revealed by the survey. In a quirk of political misfortune for Ishiba, after being elected as the LDP president and thereby becoming the prime minister, his honeymoon period seems to have already expired.
Ishiba made mistakes. Much against his promise for full-scale debates with opposition parties at the budget committees of both of Diet’s chambers he closed the extraordinary parliamentary session without any such debates. He promised to strengthen financial income taxation and introduce a selective dual surname system for married couples, but he soon back-peddled on contentious issues. Thus, besides the slush fund scandal, Ishiba’s wavering stance and unclear statements led to the decline of public support for his Cabinet.
These raise the spectre of the LDP losing its single-handed majority in the Lower House. As indicated by the surveys, maintaining a majority together with Komeito could be a tough call for Ishiba. If the LDP loses many seats, public support for Ishiba's Cabinet is likely to fall. With fragile power base Ishiba could be heading towards a critical moment.
From all indicators, it seems to emerge that the LDP is heading towards an electoral bleeding. After trying for five times for the LDP presidential bid, when he finally won, the veteran Ishiba was seen as a fresh face but he could quickly end up being a forgotten one. The red alert signals are already sounding in Tokyo’s corridors of power.
Ishiba’s hasty call for snap election now seems to backfire. If the LDP fails to keep a majority, it could be difficult for Ishiba to hold on to power with its long-standing coalition partner Komeito. As said in the beginning, a new partner needs to be searched, which would mean more compromise and slow decision-making. Though such a possibility may not happen given the opposition’s weak political base, it would not be unthinkable either. If that happens, it would be the first time in over a decade when Japan shall enter into a phase of political instability and revolving prime minister.