The mailbag column: Free agency, leadoff hitters, and MJ Melendez

My attempt at being a better postman than Kevin Costner

Earlier this week on X, Royals Review put out the call: send in your questions and we’ll answer them by the end of the week. Well, that time is upon us, and you had questions about the Royals’ offseason, some trade candidates, and potential free agent targets, among other topics.

Let’s get to it.

MJ Melendez appears to be part of the team’s future, at least in 2025. When J.J. Picollo spoke about ten days ago, he specifically talked about Melendez.

Picollo would like more power from the corner outfield spots, saying “the offense from the outfield position has to get better.” However, he is not ready to give up on left fielder MJ Melendez, despite a disappointing season where he hit .206/.273/.400 with 17 home runs.

“We shouldn’t be writing guys off because they’re in their third year in the Major Leagues.”

He called the 25-year-old a “perplexing player” because he has worked so hard and shows so much potential, but has yet to see consistent results. Picollo noted that Melendez hit lefties well in the minors and drew far more walks, traits they would like to see carry over with more consistency at the big league level.

Melendez turns 26 in about a month, so he’s still on the youngish side of things. He’s going to have to earn his 400 at-bats next season, for sure. He could’ve locked up his spot on this team with a strong season, but he’s left open the door to allow the Royals to bring in a competitor, and possible replacement, for his roster spot.

But as of right now, he’s probably set for the same role next year that he had this one.

Well, I wanted to say free agency, because to me, in free agency, you’re only giving up money instead of money and assets. But looking at this crop of free-agent hitters, I’m not sure exactly whom the Royals would target for their desired leadoff hitter.

Jurickson Profar? He plays left, he’s 31, and he’s coming off the best year of his career. The deals I’m seeing right now seem low—three years and between $12 and $15 million per year. I feel like he’ll make more than that per season. But giving a guy that kind of deal for his age 32-, 33-, and 34-seasons seems too risky.

Ha-Seong Kim? He’s a middle-infielder coming off a down year and a big surgery.

Gleyber Torres? Hard pass.

Alex Verdugo? Barely better than MJ last year.

This is a long way of saying the desired leadoff hitter may very well come to the Royals via trade—if he arrives at all.

In a perfect offseason, I’d have the Royals re-signing Michael Wacha to a multi-year deal so that the team can return their top four starting pitchers—Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Wacha, and Brady Singer. Alec Marsh is still around, too.

This would enable them to then dangle Singer—alone or as part of a package—for a controllable bat.

If you want a name from outside the organization, I’ll give you two: Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty.

As far as the ideal hitter, with the Royals looking for outfield help, I’d say former MVP Cody Bellinger. While his price tag will be high and his batting numbers have recently been all over the place, he can play anywhere in the outfield plus first base. He’ll probably be too expensive, but he could certainly fit right in with what the Royals are building.

Several people wrote in wondering about Yoan Moncada, the current White Sox third baseman over whom Chicago holds a $25 million club option for 2025 with a $5 million buyout. Moncada barely played in 2024, garnering just 45 plate appearances. He’ll turn 30 in May.

I’m sure that wherever Moncada lands for 2025, he’ll have to take the deal as indicated above: one-year, low guarantee, heavy incentives. That would make sense for the Royals as the rest of the third base free agent crop, beyond Alex Bregman, is thin.

In our off-season roundtable, I pondered a trade with the St. Louis to acquire Nolan Arenado to take over the hot corner. But if the Royals miss on trade targets, landing Moncada to challenge Maikel Garcia would be very low risk.

Once a team makes the playoffs, it’s hard not to want to return the very next season. It would be hard to take if the Royals did not contend for the American League Central and/or Wild Card spots in 2025 after such a rebirth in 2024.

On the other hand, you have to consider what the team does in the offseason. What will the starting rotation look like next year? Will the lineup feature more than just Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino? Will the Royals starting rotation be as healthy next season as it was this year?

Right now, the answer is: make the playoffs and get to the ALCS.

But it’s a fluid situation.

The Royals are not trading Cole Ragans.

One name to watch is lefthanded pitcher Noah Cameron.

Cameron started 2024 in Double-A where he went 4-4 in 16 starts with a 3.63 ERA. He later got the call up to Omaha, where he pitched even better. Seriously, his numbers improved in just about every way possible: lower ERA, fewer walks per nine innings, fewer hits allowed, lower WHIP, higher strikeout-to-walk ratio. His strikeouts-per-nine-innings only dipped slightly, from 10.5 to 10.3.

If Cameron can make the jump to the majors, in either a bullpen role or as part of the rotation, that would be a huge boon to the Royals, in terms of both another solid left arm and giving them more options to move other pitchers without the staff missing a beat.