What to watch for in the days after the US election
On Tuesday, November 5th, the American people go to the polls to vote for who they want to become their nation’s 47th president. It’ll either be the first woman to hold the post or a fella who’s rather greedily already the 45th US president.
The votes will all be quickly counted up, a winner will be immediately announced, everyone will accept the decision and it’ll all end on amicable handshakes, smiles and well wishes.
The next day, the new POTUS will have Pickfords move all their gear into The White House and they’ll begin four years of governing their country responsibly; with no corruption or warmongering whatsoever.
Of course that’s not going to be the case. If we were to try to tell you all that was true, we’d likely have the Independent Press Standards Organisation popping into the office for a quick chat.
The immediate aftermath of a US presidential election can be – and often is – complete and utter chaos. Will that be the case this time out? Well, that’s likely to depend on the outcome.
Come November 6th you may be asking yourselves and each other a few questions about what’s happened, happening and – more importantly – what’s about to happen. We’ve tried to pre-empt a few of those queries…
How do we officially find out who’s won the election?
Similar to how it works here in the UK, on election night, results get reported as votes are counted. With the major TV news networks and online news sites making best-guess projections based on early returns and exit polls.
However, these projections aren’t official. Far from it. States continue counting and checking ballots well after election day/night, especially postal and absentee votes. It can take days.
The official process relies on a system called the ‘electoral college‘, where electors cast their votes based on state results. Until all votes are certified at the state level, the results remain unofficial, even if a clear winner seems really quite likely.
How long might it take for a winner to be named?
Usually, a winner is announced on the night or the next day. Generally via an admission of defeat by the other candidate who has to concede in light of the damning numbers and balance of probability.
Election results can sometimes be delayed because of things like postal ballots, which tend to take longer to process. Another potential delay comes by way of super close races in swing states. Recounts are likely if margins are really tight, further extending the timeline of events.
Back in 2020, the surge in mail-in voting meant it took several days to declare a winner. And way back in 2000, recounts and all sorts of legal battles delayed the announcement of the results by more than a month.
Recounts in key battleground states could play a decisive role here this year too, especially if margins are wafer-thin. So – and here’s the potentially quite frustrating thing – it could take days or maybe even weeks for an official winner to be named.
Hopefully, that’s not the case, but it’s a distinct possibility given how tight things appear to be this time around.
When is the new president sworn in?
The new president will be sworn in on Inauguration Day, which takes place on January 20th 2025. This will happen regardless of any delays in declaring the election winner. Until then, Joe Biden (remember that guy?!) technically remains president.
The transition period between November and January allows the incoming administration to prepare to govern. Giving them a chance to form a cabinet and draft a few policies. It also, presumably, allows time for Joe and Jill Biden to take down The White House Christmas tree, pack all their baubles up and slink back home to Delaware to enjoy their retirements.
Even if legal battles or recounts extend beyond November, the swearing-in date is fixed and ring-fenced, ensuring a smooth transfer of power once all votes are certified and any disputes resolved.
What happens if the result gets delayed for some reason?
If the election result is delayed because of crazy close margins, a number of recounts, or an unusually high volume of mail-in ballots, uncertainty can linger on and on.
This delay may slow down the transition process to a degree, as the incoming administration can’t fully begin work until the result is confirmed. It can also impact governance, creating a period of limbo where key decisions or policies might be postponed until the final winner is formally named.
Mostly though, it results in an ongoing state of media purgatory when everyone’s speculating constantly about who’s got the job. Something that will quickly get quite tedious indeed.
Might there be legal challenges mounted?
Legal challenges are quite possible, especially if the results are very close or even disputed in one or more of the key swing states. Lawsuits may be filed over voting irregularities, the validity of postal ballots or the specifics of recount procedures.
These legal battles can delay the final outcome, as courts decide whether to uphold or dismiss the claims. In tight races, such challenges could extend the timeline for certifying the election results, impacting the entire process.
Could Trump contest the results if he loses?
You probably already know the answer to this, don’t you? Yep, there’s every chance that, should he lose the election, Donald Trump might – quite aggressively – argue the toss and refuse to accept the numbers.
He could, for instance, kick-off by alleging voter fraud or some other form of irregularity. This could lead to legal challenges that delay the official result declaration.
In 2020, his refusal to concede sparked numerous lawsuits, though most were fairly quickly and easily dismissed. So there’s a very recent precedent.
What could happen if the American people refuse to accept the result?
If voters refuse to accept the election results, there is a very real potential for significant civil unrest, particularly among – as you can imagine – supporters of the losing candidate.
Protests could escalate into the kinds of demonstrations and ugly events reminiscent of the unrest seen after the 2020 election, raising concerns about political violence and public safety.
What’s going to happen? Well, who knows? But if it’s anything like the campaign, it’s going to be a wild one.
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