Fischer's Senate fight in Nebraska leaves Republicans frustrated

Republicans are upset that the race to protect Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in deep red Nebraska has gotten competitive, forcing the party to spend precious resources that could be used elsewhere in its fight for the Senate majority.

Fischer, a two-term incumbent, has found herself in a much more precarious position than she — or any Republicans — imagined mere months ago as she tries to fend off a challenge from independent Dan Osborn. 

This has prompted finger-pointing on the right, mostly at Fischer for not taking the challenge seriously.

That is especially the case after the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) announced it was spending $3 million to boost her in the final weeks. 

“It's like some of these safe folks feel a little bit immortal. … It's what happens in these ruby-red states,” one Senate Republican said. “You should always take it seriously in Nebraska.” 

“It was muscle memory. 'I haven't had to worry in the past, why should I have to worry about this now?'" the Senate GOP member said, discussing the mentality at play. “They should have anticipated it.”

To multiple GOP operatives, the situation surrounding Fischer is a tale as old as time: a multiterm incumbent from a deep red or blue state that hasn’t had a tough reelection race in years is caught off guard by an out-of-nowhere challenge, requiring party forces to come to their rescue. 

The most glaring example on the GOP side was former Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who survived a last-minute challenge in 2014 from independent Greg Orman that sent Republicans scrambling in the final months to get him over the finish line. He ended up winning by nearly 11 percentage points. 

Republicans widely expect Fischer to also win handily, and a forecast from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill shows her with an 85 percent chance of keeping her seat.

But the Cook Political Report this week shifted the race from “likely” to “lean Republican,” and members of the GOP are not pleased that things are playing out in a way that prompted significant SLF investment on behalf of Fischer, a low-key member who is part of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) leadership team. 

According to one strategist, Fischer had little campaign infrastructure in place until professionals took charge in late summer when warning signs started to crop up and surveys showed Osborn on the rise. 

“That's what happens when you don't do anything and don't take anything seriously,” one GOP operative fumed. “This is a prime example of why you run campaigns, even if you're going to win because there's circumstances like this that exist.”

“They've fixed it I believe, but it shouldn't have gotten to this point,” they continued. “There’s always one of these where we're like, ‘How are we in this situation again?’ People that aren't taking it seriously with teams that aren't taking it seriously. … If Trump's going to win your state by a comfortable margin, you shouldn't need a bailout. That's just laziness.” 

GOP sources say the race continues to trend in a favorable direction, and Fischer will benefit from the gravitational pull of former President Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump carried the Cornhusker State by 19 points over President Biden in 2020. 

Trump recently cut an ad for Fischer, which has been playing across most of the state in the home stretch. 

The presence of Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), a popular ex-governor, also helps as he runs in a special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) term. 

A spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee defended Fischer’s chances and tied Osborn to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Democrats.

“Deb Fischer has built a steadily growing lead as Nebraskans learn more and more about her opponent, Democrat Dan Osborn, a Donald Trump-hating socialist with a long history of disturbing personal scandals including making an online account to cheat on his wife and engaging with hardcore pornography on his social media profile,” Philip Letsou said in a statement. “Fischer will crush Chuck Schumer’s hand-picked puppet.”

However, internal polls on both sides of the aisle show a polar opposite state of play. A recent Fischer internal poll showed her up by 6 percentage points, with Osborn’s team releasing a survey showing him up by the same margin. 

There has been scant public polling on the race, which strategists on both sides of the aisle would welcome with open arms as Republicans grapple with getting Fischer across the line. She is also getting outspent on the airwaves, with Osborn and Democrats spending $3.4 million during this current week compared to $2.6 million on the GOP side. 

“There’s definitely a frustration in the sense that this should never have gotten to this point,” said one GOP operative with Nebraska ties.

Some in the party are more concerned about the long-term implications of Fischer’s race, and that a narrow margin of victory could encourage more challenges of this sort against Republicans in solidly-red states. 

“In the end, no one is worried about the race itself. … But part of the goal is winning by enough that you deter Democratic candidates from thinking they can take on Republicans in future elections,” one Senate GOP aide said. “It takes 50+1 to win, but if you win by 20 points, does that deter Democrats in future races from saying, ‘Eh, well that Fischer race was close I’ll give it a go.’” 

Despite the GOP headwinds, Osborn does have some matters potentially sitting in his favor. The Omaha market has been saturated with advertising for months as Vice President Harris tries to nab the single electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District, which is also home to one of the preeminent House races on the map between Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during the 2014 cycle, told reporters this week that he was recently in the 2nd District but didn’t meet with Osborn. The union leader and independent candidate has tried keeping national Democrats at arm’s length as he courts GOP and right-leaning independent voters. 

“[Osborn] is running a really aggressive race and a populist race. … I think he’s got a chance,” Bennet said.

“I don’t think he had any interest,” he added with a laugh.