NFL straight-up picks, Week 8: A rookie of the year showdown in a chalky weekend

After a long list of coin flip matchups in Week 7, Week 8 of the 2024 NFL season isn’t nearly as compelling.

Only five games in a 16-game slate have point spreads of three points or fewer. Seven have spreads of a touchdown or more. That’s either gonna make this week’s picks incredibly easy or stupidly difficult.

There’s plenty to like despite a lopsided lineup. Caleb Williams and a hopefully healthy Jayden Daniels will face off in what could become a postseason staple in the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will figure out whose skid is reversible and who is fast-tracked to irrelevance. And Patrick Mahomes will get to face the division rival who trotted out a Kermit the Frog doll dressed like him back in the summer.

Who’s gonna take each game this week? Let’s take a look and pick some winners.

The success of the last few weeks looks a little like my 2023, where I ended the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 8 picks:

All odds via BetMGM

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Easiest game to pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-10) over the Las Vegas Raiders

Why I like this pick:

The Raiders have a Patrick Mahomes Kermit the Frog puppet at training camp?

The man is 10-2 against the Raiders, Chiefs have won 8 straight AFC West titles and they just guaranteed themselves an ass whopping they won’t forget. @PatrickMahomes

@RaidersAQ pic.twitter.com/rzBJnVlUTF

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) July 25, 2024

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Raiders occasionally show up for rivalry games with the Chiefs. This may be the last thing they have to play for in 2024.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 5-2 (.714)

Hardest favorite to back: Buffalo Bills (-3) over the Seattle Seahawks

Why I like this pick:

Josh Allen had an MVP case even before adding Amari Cooper to his receiving corps. Cooper is good enough to catch touchdown passes without even knowing what route he should be running. DK Metcalf will be playing on a sprained MCL against a pass defense that’s exceeded expectations this fall. Seattle lost its last two home games by a combined 21 points, and that includes a nine-point loss to the Giants.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Laying points in Seattle always feels awful. The Seahawks ended their three-game skid by embarrassing the Falcons in Week 7.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 3-4 (.429)

Upset pick of the week: n/a, so let’s go with the Chicago Bears (-1.5) over the Washington Commanders

This week is light on obvious upset picks. Let’s talk about the showdown between rookie of the year frontrunners happening outside the nation’s capital instead.

Daniels, even hurt, has wizard qualities. A bye week leaves crucial time for Matt Eberflus to overthink things. Chicago is vulnerable against the run and Washington just ran for 241 yards (against the Panthers, but still).

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 2-5 (.286)