Harris-Trump showdown: New national poll shows who has the edge 2 weeks from Election Day
A new national poll is the latest to indicate former President Trump with an edge over Vice President Harris in the race to succeed President Biden in the White House.
Trump grabs 47% support among likely voters nationwide, with Harris at 45%, according to a Wall Street Journal survey released on Wednesday evening - on a ballot that also includes third-party and independent candidates.
That's a switch from the Journal's previous national survey - conducted in late August - which indicated Harris with a two point edge.
The former president's advantage is within the new survey's margin-of-error, which means that either Trump or the vice president could potentially be leading the race.
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The Wall Street Journal poll - of 1,500 registered voters questioned Oct. 19-22 - also shows Trump holding a three-point margin (49%-46%) over Harris in a head-to-head match up.
The survey indicates views of Harris have turned more negative since August, with her favorable rating eight points underwater and her approval rating as vice president at 42%-54%. Meanwhile, views of Trump have improved, with voters approving of his past performance in the White House by a 52%-48% margin.
The new poll follows a Fox News national survey conducted Oct. 11-14 and released last week that indicated the Republican presidential nominee with a two-point edge over the Democratic Party standard-bearer.
Many other national surveys in the field the past two weeks, including polls from CBS News, Marist, and USA Today/Suffolk University, have indicated Harris with a slight advantage over Trump. But the polls are mostly within the margin of error.
Harris replaced a faltering President Biden atop the Democrats' 2024 ticket on July 21, and instantly experienced a surge in fundraising and a rise in her poll numbers.
Harris enjoyed the edge over Trump in most national polling amid the Democratic National Convention in late August and the first and only debate between the vice president and the former president, in early September.
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But many national surveys conducted in late September and October have pointed to Trump making gains at the expense of Harris.
The latest Fox News poll results [Trump with 50% support and Harris at 48%] were a reversal from last month, when the vice president had the edge.
"Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters," said veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. "However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion."
While national polls are helpful, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote, and instead is a battle for the states and their electoral votes.
And the latest surveys in the seven crucial battleground states whose razor-thin margins decided President Biden's 2020 victory over Trump and will likely determine whether Harris or Trump wins the 2024 election are mostly within the margin-of-error.
The Fox News poll indicated Harris with a six-point advantage over Trump among respondents questioned in all seven battleground states.
While polls point to a race within the margins, in the dash for campaign cash – another key metric in presidential politics – Harris is the clear front-runner.
The vice president entered the final full month of the campaign with a massive financial advantage over the former president, according to the latest federal fundraising filings.
The Harris campaign hauled in $221.8 million in September, according to the filings, more than triple the $63 million brought in by the Trump campaign last month.
Harris has vastly outraised and outspent Trump the past few months, and that trend continued in September. The largest expense by the Harris campaign was for paid media – mostly to run ads.
But the vice president still enjoyed a large cash-on-hand advantage over Trump entering October.
The Harris campaign reported $187 million in its coffers at the end of September, compared to $119 million for the Trump campaign.
The fundraising totals reported by the two major party campaigns don't include additional money raked in by the two national party committees, other affiliated organizations – both campaigns use a slew of affiliated fundraising committees to haul in cash – or aligned super-PACs supporting Harris and Trump.