Poll: Trump extends lead in Texas, while Cruz-Allred matchup grows tighter
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Former President Donald Trump extended his lead in Texas, a new poll shows, but the race in the state's U.S. Senate seat has gotten tighter in recent weeks.
In a new poll by Emerson College/The Hill, 53% of respondents said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 46% said they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.
The poll, funded by Nexstar Media, was released Wednesday. It found the margin between Trump and Harris grew from 5.3 points on Sept. 27 to 7.1 points on Oct. 22.
"Trump's increase in support is driven by shifts in key groups: Independent voters, who broke
for Harris by six points in September, now break for Trump by two, 49% to 47%," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "Trump's lead extended among men from 19 to 23 points this month, while women are consistent since last month in favoring Harris by six points."
The newest poll of 815 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 21, 2024. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points. Poll respondents were contacted either by landline, cell phone via MMS-to-web text or via an online panel.
No matter which candidate they support, Texas voters expect Trump will win the election, which is now less than two weeks away. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they expect Trump to win, while 43% expect Harris to win.
While the margin in presidential polling in Texas has widened, the race for Senate seems to be getting closer. According to the poll, 48% of voters support incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, while 47% support Democratic challenger Colin Allred.
Since the last poll, support for Cruz has dropped by one point, while support for Allred ticked up two points.
"Allred's name recognition has improved since last month. Eighteen percent had never heard of him in early September, decreasing to 15% in late September and to 10% this month," Kimball said.
Immigration was named the top issue for about a third of poll respondents (32%), ahead of the economy (26%), abortion access (11%), threats to democracy (8%), healthcare (5%) and education (5%).