Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: ‘September 5’ climbs into Best Picture Top 10 [Updated October 22]

If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict as the nominees and winners? Since our predictions center opened on July 1, 2024, more than 4,900 people have made their forecasts in the categories for picture, directing, acting, writing and animation (below-the-line categories were added in early October). So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?

Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for the 97th Academy Awards, updated on October 22, 2024. See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, August 6, August 19, August 28, September 11, September 19, September 23, September 30, October 7 and October 14.

Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: “September 5,” the Paramount Pictures historical drama about the 1972 Munich Olympic hostage crisis, in Best Picture, plus Edward Berger in Best Director for “Conclave,” the Focus Features mystery-thriller film.

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Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will continue to update the Oscar predictions center whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. “Anora” — 15/2
2. “Emilia Perez” — 17/2
3. “Conclave” — 17/2
4. “The Brutalist” — 17/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 19/2
6. “Sing Sing” — 10/1
7. “Blitz” — 12/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “September 5” — 30/1

Predicted Spoilers

“A Real Pain,” “A Complete Unknown,” “The Piano Lesson,” “The Room Next Door,” “Saturday Night,” “Wicked”
See more Best Picture contenders …

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 4/1
2. Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) — 9/2
3. Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
4. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 8/1
5. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

Steve McQueen (“Blitz”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”)
See more Best Director contenders …

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 39/10
2. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 9/2
3. Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) — 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) — 9/1
5. Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”) — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
See more Best Actress contenders …

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
2. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) — 9/2
3. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
4. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 6/1
5. Daniel Craig (“Queer”) — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
See more Best Actor contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 19/5
2. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 9/2
3. Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) — 13/2
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 17/2
5. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 10/1

Predicted Spoilers

Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 9/2
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 5/1
3. Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) — 5/1
4. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 13/2
5. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 11/1

Predicted Spoilers

Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”), Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Peter Sarsgaard (“September 5”), John Lithgow (“Conclave”),
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Sing Sing” — 39/10
2. “Conclave” — 4/1
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 8/1
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

“The Room Next Door,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Nightbitch,” “Queer,” “Gladiator II”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. “Anora” — 71/20
2. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Blitz” — 17/2
5. “Saturday Night” — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

“Hard Truths,” “September 5,” “The Substance,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Nominees

1. “The Brutalist” — 37/10
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
3. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
4. “Nickel Boys” — 8/1
5. “Maria” — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

“Conclave,” “Gladiator II,” “Nosferatu,” “Blitz,” “Anora”
See more Best Cinematography contenders …

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Predicted Nominees

1. “Wicked” — 19/5
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Maria” — 11/2
5. “Blitz” — 15/2

Predicted Spoilers

“The Brutalist,” “Nosferatu,” “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez”
See more Best Costume Design contenders …

BEST FILM EDITING

Predicted Nominees

1. “The Brutalist” — 19/5
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Anora” — 5/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 6/1
5. “Conclave” — 7/1

Predicted Spoilers

“September 5,” “Blitz,” “Gladiator II,” “Challengers,” “Sing Sing”
See more Best Film Editing contenders …

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees

1. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
2. “The Substance” — 9/2
3. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” — 5/1
4. “Wicked” — 6/1
5. “Nosferatu” — 8/1

Predicted Spoilers

“A Different Man,” “The Apprentice,” “Emilia Perez,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Gladiator II”
See more Best Makeup & Hairstyling contenders …

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees

1. “Dune: Part Two” — 18/5
2. “Gladiator II” — 9/2
3. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
4. “Wicked” — 11/2
5. “Blitz” — 6/1

Predicted Spoilers

“Conclave,” “Nosferatu,” “Emilia Perez,” “Maria,” “Megalopolis”
See more Best Production Design contenders …

BEST SCORE

Predicted Nominees

1. “Conclave” — 19/5
2. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
3. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
5. “The Wild Robot” — 17/2

Predicted Spoilers

“Saturday Night,” “Challengers,” “The Room Next Door,” “Gladiator II,” “Blitz”
See more Best Score contenders …

BEST SONG

Predicted Nominees

1. “Emilia Perez” (“El Mal”) — 9/2
2. “The Wild Robot” (“Kiss the Sky”) — 5/1
3. “The Six Triple Eight” (“The Journey”) — 13/2
4. “Moana 2” (“We’re Back”) — 13/2
5. “Emilia Perez” (“Mi Camino”) — 9/1

Predicted Spoilers

“Sing Sing” (“Like a Bird”), “Piece by Piece” (“Piece by Piece”), “Will and Harper” (“Harper and Will Go West”), “Mufasa: The Lion King” (“I Always Wanted a Brother”), “Blitz” (“Winter Coat”)
See more Best Song contenders …

BEST SOUND

Predicted Nominees

1. “Dune: Part Two” — 7/2
2. “Gladiator II” — 9/2
3. “Blitz” — 5/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 6/1
5. “Twisters” — 21/2

Predicted Spoilers

“Wicked,” “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “The Brutalist”
See more Best Sound contenders …

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Nominees

1. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/5
2. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” — 9/2
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Twisters” — 13/2
5. “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” — 19/2

Predicted Spoilers

“Mufasa: The Lion King,” “Here,” “Wicked,” “Deadpool and Wolverine,” “Blitz”
See more Best Visual Effects contenders …

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees

1. “The Wild Robot” — 17/5
2. “Inside Out 2” — 39/10
3. “Memoir of a Snail” — 9/2
4. “Flow” — 6/1
5. “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” — 7/1

Predicted Spoilers

“Moana 2,” “Piece by Piece,” “Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,” “Transformers One,” “Despicable Me 4”
See more Best Animated Feature contenders …

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