American Democracy Isn’t Hopelessly Polarized — It’s Finely Tuned
Today’s thinking is that American democracy is deeply polarized — so sharply divided into two groups, Red and Blue, that it cannot govern itself. People now rank polarization as one of the top three problems facing the country, behind only inflation and gun control. And this perceived polarization is making Americans lose trust in one another.
But research and facts on the ground suggest something different. In fact, the country’s political system is remarkably responsive. Over the last several decades, partisanship has gone down and bipartisanship is up. Political participation has risen. Political parties have adapted to demographic shifts and candidates have altered their long-standing views. And yes, the U.S. government still continues to function properly.
Let’s look at the research first. Since “polarization” took center stage as a major issue over a decade ago, many studies have shown that it’s greatly exaggerated. In 2014, professors David Brady and Hahrie Han found that, if one counted the “overlapping” congressmen of conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, “what becomes evident is that the present period of polarization is akin to the polarization we had for much of the nineteenth and early twentieth century.”
In 2019, Yale University researcher Daniel Yudkin’s study showed that the country was divided into seven “tribes” — progressive activists, passive liberals, politically disengaged, moderates, traditional liberals, traditional conservatives and conservative activists. He found that it was the behavior of the wing groups, the activists, “that is largely responsible for the perception that American politics is hopelessly polarized.”
That same year, surveys by the New York Times confirmed that polarization was “overstated” and that “only 15 to 20 percent of Americans were truly polarized.”
This past July, a Time magazine article, “The Growing Evidence That Americans Are Less Divided Than You May Think,” concluded that “American politics has grown more divided — but largely among people who live and breathe politics.” It referenced many studies, including one that showed people grossly overestimate — by 78 percent — the size of the most polarized group within each party. They also underestimate — by 77 percent — the number of moderates in the other party. Another study, the American Aspirations Index by former Harvard University Professor Todd Rose, “found ‘stunning agreement’ on national goals across every segment of the U.S. population.” Rose said it was a “shared illusion” that people are hopelessly divided.
Many facts on the ground confirm that Americans are not nearly as polarized as the media doomsayers love to argue.
Take a look at the number of registered Independents. They now constitute the largest political bloc at 43 percent. Those who identify as Democrat or Republican are at record lows — 27 percent each. Granted, the majority of Independents lean toward one party or another, but there are still nearly 7 percent who show no partisan bent, according to Pew. These “true” Independents avoid politics, don’t speak up publicly, and are therefore barely noticed. They move in and out of Independent status depending on the election or issue.
Independent voters have helped fine-tune American democracy. Every election since 2004, except in 2012, has seen the president, Senate, or House of Representatives switch between parties. No wonder a full one-third of Independent voters believe that their vote does make a difference. The number of Independents is likely to rise since 52 percent of Millennials and Gen-Zers now identify as Independent.
The polarization doomsayers miss another interesting statistic; political participation is way up. There is nothing hopeless about American democracy when 66 percent of its eligible voting population does vote in a presidential election. The 2020 Trump–Biden election saw a 7 percent increase in voter turnout over the 2016 election. America’s voter turnout has risen in every presidential election since 2000, with the exception of 2012.
Another sign of a responsive system is that the two big political parties are both engaged in an intense battle to bring more people under their umbrella. The Democratic Party is winning elections because it adjusted to the country’s changing demographics more rapidly than the Republicans. In 2000, Al Gore lost to George W. Bush when the white voter bloc constituted 81 percent of the total. By 2020, the white voter bloc had dropped to 67 percent and a Democrat won the White House. Biden secured 87 percent of the Black vote, 65 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 61 percent of the Asian vote.
Political parties are also quick to respond to people’s changing views. Consider the platform changes in the current presidential campaign. Trump has changed his stance on many issues, including abortion, gun control, vaccines, and criminal justice. Kamala Harris has changed her position on fracking, immigration, healthcare, policing, and guns.
There is also no sign of polarization affecting America’s governance. The country’s legislative activity continues, as it has for decades. Since World War II, Congress has typically enacted 4–6 million words of new law in each Congress. And, bills passed with bipartisan support is at a 20-year high. In 2022, Vox reported, “bipartisanship winds up being more common than people think it is — even when one party holds full control of Congress.” This year nearly two-thirds of all bills were passed with bipartisan support.
Sure, there are still legislative issues that America hasn’t resolved. But that doesn’t mean that polarization has paralyzed the country. Keep the faith, America. Our democracy may be slow and loud, but it still works.
Bhanu Dhamija is the author of Why India Needs the Presidential System.
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