The Polymarket 'whale' is placing as many as 71 bets a minute in favor of Donald Trump
Joe Raedle /Getty Images
- A Polymarket "whale" is betting heavily on Trump winning the presidential election.
- Four accounts on Polymarket have $46 million in open positions in favor of Trump.
- One of the "whale" accounts, Theo4, has placed as many as 71 bets a minute, a BI analysis found.
The "whale" placing big bets on Polymarket in favor of Donald Trump winning the November election has ramped up betting on the former president.
The Wall Street Journal said last week that four accounts on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket had exhibited characteristics suggesting they're linked, either belonging to a single person or a group that's been betting big on a Trump win.
Business Insider compiled the trading activity of the four accounts and found that two of them, Fredi9999 and Theo4, together had placed more than 2,500 bets in the past 24 hours.
Theo4 has placed as many as 71 bets a minute, suggesting that the betting activity could be automated.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to Polymarket data, the four accounts thought to be a Trump whale — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie — have a combined $46 million in open positions on the betting platform.
The accounts have bet on various questions related to the election outcome. They include binary "yes/no" or "Republican/Democrat" questions like, "Will a Republican win the Michigan Presidential Election?" and, "Which party wins the 2024 US Presidential Election?"
The latest bets range from $1 to tens of thousands of dollars, and the amount wagered by Fredi9999 and Theo4 over the past 24 hours has surpassed at least $2 million.
Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Polymarket was "re-checking" its users' personal information to ensure that they're not US citizens using a virtual private network to access the website. Betting on Polymarket is not available to US users.
Bloomberg reported that a person familiar with the matter said the four Polymarket accounts thought to be a Trump whale were not based in the US.
The majority of the bets placed by the four accounts have favored a Trump victory in the presidential election and a loss for Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.
Trump's Polymarket odds of winning the election next month soared to 66% on Tuesday, representing the highest level since July 17, when President Joe Biden was still in the race.
More than $1 billion has been wagered on Polymarket on the outcome of the presidential election.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a smaller betting website that is open to US citizens following a court ruling earlier this month, has the odds of Trump winning the election at 59% compared with 41% for Kamala Harris.
Both betting-market websites paint a different picture than the most recent polls, which are extremely close with two weeks to go before the November 5 vote.
Harris led Trump on Tuesday in the latest national polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics, with Harris at 49.3% compared with 48.5% for Trump.