J.J. Picollo and the front office have their work cut out for them
What to do?
Almost immediately after the New York Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals in the American League Divisional Series, discussion turned to next year and what the Royals could to to get back to the playoffs in a stronger position. Maybe even win the division, you know?
Fortunately and unfortunately alike, there is no shortage of what the Royals need to do. Royals GM J.J. Picollo hosted a year-end press conference shortly after Kansas City’s season ended and outlined what the team planned to do in the offseason. Unlike last year, where the team desperately needed pitching help, the Royals seem to be focused on some offensive improvements: getting on base at a better clip, further developing talent at the big league level, acquiring a leadoff hitter, and lengthening the lineup with a middle-of-the-order bat.
This tracks with the numbers. By on-base percentage, the Royals ranked 19th in the league. And leadoff hitters for Kansas City hit a rather pathetic .228/.270/.334, a 66 wRC+ which was dead last in baseball. Meanwhile, previously promising players like MJ Melendez, Maikel Garcia, Nick Pratto, Tyler Gentry, and Nick Loftin put up some of the worst offensive numbers of their careers, forcing the Royals to turn to the waiver wire vets at the end of the year.
The good news is that the Royals have a lot of payroll to work with in the short term and long term. At the moment, assuming that Michael Wacha opts out of his contract to hit free agency again, the Royals’ projected 2025 payroll will be about $92 million. Considering that Kansas City entered 2024 with a $115 million Opening Day payroll and assuming a modest 10% increase, the Royals probably have about $35 million to play with just for 2025. And in 2026, the Royals only have $30 million in committed payroll.
The bad news is that the Royals have a huge amount to do. To start off with, we probably can’t expect the top three Royals to be as productive as they were this year, where Bobby Witt Jr., Seth Lugo, and Cole Ragans combined for 19.6 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) by themselves. Furthermore, this year’s Royals squad was incredibly healthy—yes, even when tossing in Vinnie Pasquantino’s injury at the end of the year. You can’t expect that to continue. Like, they had five guys make 25 or more starts, and only seven pitchers started a game. That is bonkers.
Furthermore, the Royals farm system just isn’t coming to help in 2025. As I already mentioned, the names that could have helped be key players in the upper minors and big leagues have not only stopped progressing but have regressed. The Royals aren’t a 100-loss team anymore; they can’t just give plate appearances to just any prospect, and Kansas City doesn’t have anyone who could make a reliable impact in the next calendar year. MLB ranked the team as 25th overall in their midseason farm system rankings, which is obviously bad.
This isn’t to say that the Royals don’t have intriguing prospects. Blake Mitchell was excellent in his first season in A ball. Jac Caglianone has special power. Javier Vaz has some of the best plate discipline we’ve seen in a long time. Ben Kudrna is intriguing and already in Double-A. But none of those guys or Gavin Cross are coming to save the team in 2025.
Finally, the Royals have reached the point of diminishing returns: they’ve finally broken the 80-win barrier, but getting better from here on out is harder and harder. There are no pieces of low-hanging fruit, like signing legitimate free agents and retaining top talent with extensions. To get better from here, they’ve got to draft way better, make hard trades, or dip into their thin farm system. The margin for error is low.
To be perfectly frank, it is more likely than not that the 2025 Royals win fewer games than the 2024 squad, which had so much going for it out of nowhere. Fortunately, that’s not destiny—it just means that J.J. Picollo and the front office have to nail the offseason once more, but this time on hard mode.